The National League has seen a shift of power over the years, and divisions are not really getting any more predictable. We have seen some offseason activity that has significantly altered teams coming into 2018, so let’s see how things play out this year. With Bovada recently setting odds on 2018 MLB season win totals, here are my predictions with analyses for five National League teams this season.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – UNDER 84.5

The Milwaukee Brewers started off the first half of 2017 strong, and actually held first place in the NL Central for a good portion of the Spring and Summer. However, they started to tail off a bit as the Summer went on, and ended up allowing the Cubs to overtake them. Milwaukee missed the Playoffs despite being a 86-76 team. If not for their hot start, this would have been a .500 team at best.

This year, I see a lot of uncertainties. You could definitely argue that the Brewers should have gotten a lot more out of Jonathan Villar last season, but at the same time, a large part of the success that Milwaukee experienced last year had to do with performances from Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Thames started off as the best hitter through the first couple months of the season, while Anderson got into a similar cutter groove that Jake Arrieta has in his Cy Young season with the Cubs in 2015. It will be very hard for either to replicate what they did for long stretches last season.

While the Brewers have completely loaded up on offense through the acquisitions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, this creates an overload of strength in the outfield. Some configuration will be needed in where Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana will play this season.

What I see here is a bit of imbalance between offense and pitching, as pitching is unpredictable at best compared to a pretty potent hitting lineup. There will likely be a lot of high scoring games with this team. There is not really much fastball heat potential in that entire rotation, so the Brewers will have to rely on a rotation of off specific skill pitchers. This will be a problem at various points of the season when pitch velocity is needed. However, unless Chase Anderson can stay in the same type of rhythm as last year or if the Brewers get into another good groove to start things off, it will be hard to see Milwaukee being an 86 win team again. Also, keep in mind that the Brewers have added to their list of challenges, as Yu Darvish enters the Cubs rotation.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – UNDER 96.5 Wins

The Los Angeles Dodgers had a heck of a 2017, and was on pace for a historical regular season record until an extended late season slump forced them to finish with only 104 wins. To the point, the Dodgers did a lot of things right and were in immaculate rhythm for the majority of last season. You dont win 100 games without catching lightning in a bottle. This season, they will have a few different challenges on top of trying to get into the same rhythm. First off, would be the fact that the basement dwelling teams in the division could be anticipated to be significantly better than last season. The National League dominated the standings in 2017, holding the best team in the MLB and the two NL Wild Card spots as well. Don’t expect the Arizona Diamondbacks or Colorado Rockies to get significantly worse, and we can really look forward to much better seasons from the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres with their additions.

This prediction is not a shot at the Dodgers, nor a suggested decline. I just feel as though it takes a lot to have a near 100 win season no matter how good you are, and that the total may be a little bit inflated due to last season’s finishing.

 

Miami Marlins – OVER 64.5 Wins

Throughout the entire winter, it seemed as though the only MLB talk worth getting up for were transactions in which the Miami Marlins were involved in…and no, it was not for good reasons. The Southeast Florida Club’s woes have been well documented, and debt is among one of the biggest topics surrounding this team. Financial struggles have led to the departure of Franchise Slugger Giancarlo Stanton, followed by the departure of the team’s second best hitter Marcell Ozuna, and then the remaining piece of the outfield in Christian Yelich. The Marlins saw their outfield completely gutted in the offseason, and unfortunately for them this meant the loss of three of the team’s top four hitters. All in all though, that is essentially all the Marlins lost; a lot of firepower.

The infield still looks like they should be good for a combined high .200s batting average with a decent amount of power coming from Justin Bour and the addition of Starlin Castro.

The pitching however, is where I see improvements. While the core of the pitching rotation is not much different from last season, the back end of the rotation should see vast improvements year to year due to anticipated growth and development of the young arms. With Dan Straily and Wei-Yin Chen being the two veterans in the rotation, this leaves the other spots up for grabs for about five others. Jose Urena, with some fine tuning, may breakout into superstar status this season. Adam Conley, perhaps with a lot more fine tuning, can become a decent pitcher. However, I don’t think Conley can pitch any worse than he did last season. Dillon Peters is not a velocity pitcher, and also with some tweaks he can become a very effective mix into the rotation. The main win here, if any, for this Marlins team in this offseason, is the acquisition of Sandy Alcantara in the trade involving Marcell Ozuna, who was a prospect of the St. Louis Cardinals. The 22 year old Dominican Flamethrower possesses a high 90s four seamer, and will very quickly become the only “pure stuff” guy in the Marlins rotation. This is exactly what the Marlins need in their rotation. Miami could really use a bit of spice in that pitching staff, and Alcantara will most likely move up in the rotation sooner than later.

The Marlins finished with 77 wins in 2017, and the win total being set at 12.5 wins below that is simply a reflection of the WAR statistic lost in their outfielder departures. It does not really take into account the prospective newcomers or the anticipated growth of the younger players. It also does not factor in motivation and less known areas of need being addressed.

Last year’s worst team saw 64 wins. For the same fate to happen to the Marlins, there would have to be very little to no motivation for this team to overcome their hurdles. I really don’t see this team of professionals laying over and dying. To some extent, Miami will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, but minus the pressure. Expect them to be at least a high 60s to low 70s win team.

 

Washington Nationals – OVER 92.5 Wins

If there is anything that seems nearly scripted in baseball right now, it is probably that the Washington Nationals are a near lock for first place in the NL East. Nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing suggests that the Nationals will be in any worse of a position this season than last season. The essential core of the roster is the same as it has been for the past couple of seasons. If anything, the young players are getting into the winning mentality in the regular season, and developing accordingly. The NL East is not expected to be particularly any more challenging overall in 2018 than it was last year.

In addition, not only does the NL East look like it has remained pretty overall stagnant (with minor improvements to the Phillies and Mets and a significant setback of the Marlins cancelling each other out), but there is no suggestion that the National League as a whole will be too much better than in 2017. With the exception of the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, and maybe the St. Louis Cardinals, I do not really see too many other teams taking significant steps forward in 2018.

The Nationals should continue to finish in the mid 90 win range, and perhaps even higher.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates  – UNDER 73 Wins

In a league with no real salary cap, there are teams that are simply working with the scraps they are given. The Pittsburgh Pirates may have been one of the most admirable teams in that aspect over the years, but there is a suggestive vibe that things are just getting too difficult for this Western Pennsylvania club to further compete…at least for 2018. Despite being in the bottom ten in salary payroll for as long as I can remember, the Pirates put together a few solid runs in the early 2010s, clinching a Wild Card Playoff berth in three straight seasons from 2013-2015. Keep in mind that the Pirates have played in arguably one of the best divisions over the past few years as well. Since 2016 however, the team has clearly been taking a step backwards with two below .500 seasons.

To make matters worse, this current offseason is the first true sign that this Pirates team is falling out of contention. Over the Winter, the Pirates lost their franchise player and former NL MVP in Andrew McCutchen and also their established Ace in Gerrit Cole to trades. This means that they are sacrificing the near future for the more distant future, and it is clearly reflected in the current roster.

As of right now, Pittsburgh has no real slugging threat nor consistent hitting threat on offense. The closest thing to a reliable power hitter that they have would be Josh Bell. The pitching staff itself screams inexperience, as Ivan Nova is the only person in the expanded rotation that has pitched more than two full seasons in the majors.

This is going to be a very young group that will grow together in 2018. There will be a ton of speed bumps along the way, and there will be a need for experience in rough situations. Pittsburgh finished with 75 wins last season, and became significantly worse on paper while the Cardinals and Cubs both became significantly better through addition. The Brewers have also added bats, so this will be trouble for an inexperienced pitching rotation. Why anyone would expect the Pirates to finish with more wins than last year after considering all of that, is beyond me. This team would have to win every single game against the Reds to even have a chance to be a near .500 team in 2018.

 

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