2012 College Football Win Totals: Iowa State
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I hate to say it, but under 4.5. The problem is in the math. When you are a team that has been at the bottom of their division for so long, it makes it even tougher to reach their goal of winning those same amount of games when they now have a full conference to deal with.
One problem with playing in a 10 team conference, and having to play every team in that conference is if there is any seperation at all between the teams in that conference, your pretty much guaranteed to have two teams come out of it with losing records. Last year we had Texas Tech and Kansas finish at the bottom. And those teams had just a combined record of 7-17. Which averages out to 3.5 wins each.
Almost every opponent that Iowa State plays this season SHOULD have a winning record. Kansas is the only exception. Texas Tech dealt with a ton of injuries last year. So with 17 starters back from a 5-7 record, I expect the Red Raiders to end up at the very worst a 6-6 to 7-5 record.
So that basically just leaves Iowa State and Kansas as the bottom teams. Their biggest problem could be in their non-conference schedule. Last season after just getting by Northern Iowa 20-19, they pulled off the upset of Iowa at home, then went to UCONN (5-7 LY) and won another tight game. But this season they are opening with a couple teams who both went to bowls last year, and will probably be just about as good this year. Instead of playing Iowa in Ames, they now have to play a revenge-minded Hawkeye team on the road. And the opener with Tulsa will pretty much be a tossup game.
Realistically, even if they knock off Tulsa or Iowa, that still makes them just 2-1 going into league play since this league is now down to playing just 3 non-conference opponents. Which hurts these bottom dweller teams who are used to scheduling that one extra non-bcs or FCS team to get a freebie win. It means the Clones will have to win at least 3 conference games this year.
The problem is two out of those three Big 12 teams they defeated last year will be improved this year. And Okie State will also be looking for revenge in Stillwater since ISU destroyed their national title hopes. Their 4 most realistic chances at wins come at home against Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor and at Kansas. I think they’ll be doing very good if they win 2 out of these 4 games. Even Kansas is no guarantee. They’ll have a much better offense this year, and the game will be played in Lawrence this year. Keep in mind that ISU was only able to beat KU 13-10 in Ames last year. So they have their work cut out for them.
The biggest concern is ISU still hasn’t named a starting QB, so the chances of them sweeping those early non-conference games is remote. They did it last year, but still needed a huge upset of OSU to even become bowl eligible. If they lose to Tulsa in their first game (very possible) there’s a pretty good chance they will be just 1-2 going into league play. And there’s no way I see them winning 4 conference games, with at least 3 being over bowl eligible teams. So these early games are key. But I can tell you guys, it’s not a good sign when a team hasn’t yet named their starting QB just two weeks out from kickoff. I think the under 4.5 wins is very possible because of a more difficult schedule than last season.