College Football 2012: Overvalued and Undervalued Teams
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6 thoughts on “College Football 2012: Overvalued and Undervalued Teams”
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I totally agree with all of these teams, except for maybe the Clemson call. I think when classifying overvalued and undervalued teams, there are different ways to look at it. One way, which Chris did, was agaisnt their O/U win totals. I also agree with Chris when he says he doesn’t like to lay money on a team that he hasn’t seen yet, therefore I tend to stay away from O/U and Futures unless its for fun. I think that there are ways the books capture public money in favorable odds on teams that are big-time hyped leading into the season.
Examples of this are Michigan who are totally being hyped about Denard returning as a Heisman candidate and their “superb” defense. Their defense was superb last season against 3 ranked teams — MSU, Neb, and VT. None of those teams pose a serious threat. I think that people are way too high on a Michigan team that played a cake schedule. If you would have given Michigan Ole Miss’ 2011 schedule, you see them going 7-5, possibly even 6-6.
With that being said, I think Michigan spreads will be a bit inflated, even after the Bama game.
Thanks for commenting Chris.
Did a a bunch BYU players suddenly go on a morman mission? I’m counting 14 starters back for BYU (7 offense & 7 defense), not 11 like what was stated. I admit that BYU has a lot to prove this year, but aside from TCU, they really didn’t have much of a chance to beat a winning team after Nelson came in. And they took care of business against everybody else by an average score of 41-13. Chris is basically assuming that BYU will be the same team this year without any improvement. Which is possible, but all signs point to the team being better this year. I don’t know what kind of juice he’s paying, but Chris could be right about the under 8.5 since I’m expecting around 8 wins for the Cougs. He’s dead on about Wisconsin. I think they could be a dark horse national title contender team by the time all of the dust settles.
GoSooners and I have been having a lively discussion about the Cougars in our BYU season wins total article: https://dailysportsedge.com/3534/2012-college-football-win-totals-byu-cougars/
I count 13 starters returning (6 offense & 7 defense), however there are several players on offense that I don’t count as returning starters (they started less then half the games last year) and they have a few defenders that actually did return from Mormon missions (Ian Dulan @ DE was a 16 game starter before going on his mission several years ago and he redshirted last year).
We’ve received a lot of good comments about Riley Nelson from BYU fans who are saying that he should be improved this season in the passing game.
My quick take on BYU is they will probably be an improved team this year, but their schedule is more difficult then it was last season, so I think it will be difficult, but certainly not impossible, for them to repeat their 10 win (9 win regular season) season of last year.
Just my two cents, but I think Indiana, a perennial doormat in the Big Ten, may surprise some people this year. Wilson seems to have some good things brewing in Bloomington. People are actually talking about football again, whichj is a huge leao forward. Also, think Arkansas State with Malzahn now coaching will be a good “wager-on” team. I tend to be a contrarian, so I am usually looking for reasons to go against the Top 25, but it certaibnly seems as though the landscape of college football has changed forever, with a much greater emphasis placed on speed and high powered offenses over the last several campaigns. Hence, frontrunners like Alabama and LSU may still have some value, as their defenses seem to have the speed and athleticism to keep up with most anyone on the other side of the ball. If they ever figure out a way to score with the likes of Oregon and Ok St, all of our heads might explode. Looking forward gto another profitable college football season!!
alkimyst, thanks for the comment. I actually wagered twice on IU last year and won both games (PSU & Ohio State). I like Roberson’s athleticism at QB, but their OL and defense overall always get me nervous anytime I am considering them.
Hard to see LSU and Alabama repeating last years ATS records, their lines will be inflated, but as you point out their defenses are so good that betting against them is always risky.