After a bad first week, things have rebounded nicely and week ten was no exception. I again went 2-1 and am now 16-12-1 for the 2017 season. Penn State lost at Michigan State (kudos to the Spartans…I was very wrong about them) but the Northwestern Wildcats again came through for me with an outright win and Michigan hammered Minnesota for my two wins. Here are my Big Ten selections for this week with Mybookie.ag odds. 

Pick of the Week – Northwestern (-4.5) vs. Purdue – 7:00 on ESPN2

I could be getting fooled by this one because I really don’t understand why the line is only 4.5. Northwestern is red-hot, winning four straight games with four straight covers. Their offense is clicking and Clayton Thorson has developed a trusting relationship with his pass catchers and Justin Jackson continues to be a good multi-dimensional threat. The Wildcats put up 37 on Maryland, 39 on Michigan State and 31 on Nebraska. In the game they were held down, they knocked off Iowa 17-10. After the results of last weekend, how impressive do those Michigan State and Iowa results look? The emergence of Jeremy Larkin has been a good thing for the offense as he’s averaging nearly five yards a carry and it’s helping Jackson stay a bit fresher late in games. Purdue lost David Blough for the season and will go with Elijah Sindelar at quarterback. The Boilermakers have a solid defense, no doubt about that but Northwestern has been scoring at an effective clip against everyone but Iowa. I don’t see Purdue presenting enough issues to the Wildcats defense to get into the 20s and I trust Pat Fitzgerald and his offense to get the job done. Northwestern is having a special season and winning every close game they come across, I trust them to win this one a bit more easily and cover the 4.5 point spread.

ATS Pick of the Week – Rutgers (+31.5) at Penn State – Noon on BTN

Penn State is going to win this game easily. However, 31.5 points is a very high number and the Scarlet Knights are improved enough that I don’t expect this to be a complete laugher. The Nittany Lions have an impressive resume against lesser competition, drilling Northwestern (before the Wildcats were playing well), quickly pulling away from Indiana and manhandling Michigan. That being said, Rutgers has a pretty solid defense and I expect them to keep this one competitive for the duration of the contest. Now, competitive doesn’t mean the outcome will ever really be in doubt but I don’t see PSU winning by 30+.

Bonus Pick – Michigan (-16.5) at Maryland – 3:30 on BTN

The Michigan Wolverines are playing with a real mean streak right now and their running game looks as good as it had since the Jim Harbaugh era began. Karan Higdon and Chris Evans are both banging out 100+ rushing yards and I don’t see why the Maryland defense will be able to slow them down. The Terps gave up 239 rushing yards last week and Rutgers is certainly no Michigan. I am expecting the Wolverines to run for more than 300 yards, mix in a bit of playaction and then mostly suffocate the Terrapins offense. D.J. Moore is a really good player but Don Brown will send a ton of pressure to harass Max Bortenschlager into mistakes and prevent Moore from beating his defense. Michigan might not be able to put up huge numbers against good teams just yet but they have shown an ability to bully lesser opponents and we’ll see more of the same on Saturday. Take the Wolverines at -16.5.