For those who haven’t been following weekly, the summary of the early week post is as follows:

At the beginning of each week I am providing an analysis of my power rankings and the raw data and trends I build into each line, which I measure against the posted openers.  This allows me to arrive at what I call our “Average Variance” from the Vegas opener.  Based on my experience, any average variance > 4, from the posted opener v. my line will be in consideration for a play, (with the situational and technical aspects evaluated before I fire).  This analysis also helps me fire early on games I see as having huge value as these plays are typically plays I see as positive ROI plays over time.

As you can see Week 1-8 have produced a 39-33-2 record.

Power Rankings Moves:

USC – Injuries have depleted this team, QB Darnold has regressed and I wondered whether HC Helton was really the guy – We will soon find out if he can keep this team together after their Final Four hopes have all but been destroyed.  Interesting spot this week for the Trojans in Tempe.  I have dropped the Men of Troy 6 points to 87.5.

Oregon – See USC above – The Ducks are also an injured mess and with QB Herbert still out, they just cannot stay on the field and this is killing their defense.   The Ducks have scored 10, 7, and 14 the last three games without their QB and have two tough games coming up and then two winnable games in the last two weeks. This team needs a shot in the arm and hopefully for them Herbert can come back.  We have dropped the Ducks 3.5 points to 80.

Fresno State – I expected the Bulldogs to be improved with new HC Tedford who is a great offensive mind, however the story has been their suffocating defense so far in 2017.  I can’t upgrade this team fast enough as they are now laying 21 this week @ UNLV (even with the Rebels’ QB possibly out).  Quick and impressive turnaround for the Bulldogs as we have moved them up to 67.

Based on the attached Average Variance Analysis my numbers show value on the following Week Nine Games:

145 Indiana OVER 51.5

155 Minnesota

181 UCLA

199 Washington State

205 Penn State

211 UNLV

BOL in Week Nine and let us know in the comments if you have any questions – JWS