College Football Preview – NC State at Florida State

322 Florida State -13 /51 vs 321 NCST

Florida State has not played a game since Sept 2 as a result of the terrible hurricane that hit the state of Florida. So as we dig into this game vs NCST as they both kick off ACC conference play that is something that has to be considered in the handicap although I do not make this a major factor 1 way or the other.

In their opening game the Noles not only lost in convincing fashion to Alabama they also lost their Heisman trophy contender QB. That leaves true freshman James Blackman to make his 1st career start, With zero scouting report on Blackman one would think the Noles will look to establish a running game early in order to ease the young freshman signal caller into action.

NCST comes in to this game with a 2-1 record the lone setback was the opening gm loss at the hands of South Carolina, upon further review that game might go down as one of the most misleading results of the entire college football season. Take a look at these lopsided #’s

So now how will all this translate between the lines this Saturday? One glaring concern for the Noles before the season and it reared its ugly head in wk 1 is the offensive line. That could be a recipe for a tremendous mismatch along the line of scrimmage with this Wolpack defensive line vs the Noles below ave offensive line. This will very likely put a lot of pressure on the Noles young freshman signal caller. Furthermore if NCST can establish the run on the offensive side of the ball (no easy task) then it could start to add up as this game moves along. As we go to print we are currently catching 12.5 points here with the underdog Wolfpack and to me that just looks like its going to be way too many points to ask these Noles to cover vs a very game NCST defense. If you had to guess you would likely say the team on the right that out gained their opponent 504 to 246 probably overcame the 2 turnovers and won, well if you said that then you would be wrong as the team on the left was South Carolina. The stat that jumps off the page to me more then anything is the rushing stats for South Carolina 21 carries for 31 net yards! Those type of #’s are something you would expect to see when lets say Penn St is playing Kent St, complete and utter dominance on the defensive line by the Wolfpack. Now South Carolina is not a great team, however they certainly are not of the likes of Kent St or a team like Kent.

I can see this game being very low scoring lets say 24-20 and I’m not quite ready to concede that Florida St will have the 24 as it very well could be the Wolfpack. Either way I will back the upstart NCST Wolfpack +12.5 and I will give you 2 long shot bonus additions:

Parlay NCST +7 in the 1st half and under 27 in the 1st half
Just in case we are really on target a sprinkle of the ML +345

Of course with those longer shot plays I would make those smaller then my game bet of +12.5

Good luck on this game its definitely going to be on my card as well so I will be rooting along with you guys. You can follow me on twitter @thereal_hbc hope everyone has a very profitable weekend

Record YTD Free play write ups 2-1