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Pittsburgh @ Chicago +7.5: Yes, you aren’t reading this wrong.  I’m willing to take the risk on the Bears as a TD+ home dog against the Steelers.  I expect this line to follow the same pattern as the Falcons game did in week 1.  The revealing stat here is the Bears value as a home dog.  They are 5-1 in their last 6 opportunities with some impressive covers in there (Falcons, Packers, Vikings, & Lions).  Although, I don’t think much of this team in the big picture, I think coming off an absolute beat down at the hands of Tampa will help inspire them to keep the game competitive.  

Pittsburgh also has a track record of sleep walking through early season road games.  If you recall they were blown out by both Miami and Philadelphia on the road with Big Ben starting in 2016. I don’t think much of Mike Tomlin as a head coach.  I think Pitt is immensely talented, but prone to let downs as the chart below shows:  

 I think if the Bears avoid turning the ball over you should see them hang tough just like they did with a better Atlanta team in week 1.

The Spreadsheet Breakdown:

Random Thoughts:

– Money Zone was 6-2 last week… looks pretty scary this week, but bold moves are typically where the $ is!!! 

– I almost went with Arizona.  But I want to see how the Cowboys respond to their first real adversity.  It feels like this could be the beginning of the end as they’ve now lost Zeke and the defense could be unraveling.

– Atlanta looks like a solid play, but I just can’t stomach getting picked apart by Stafford yet again.  “If you can’t beat ’em, avoid em”….(you like what i did there?) The Lions defense actually looks like it can play too, or is it just the ineptness of the Giants?

– The Denver at Buffalo line looks like the trap of the century.  There’s got to be something to that…. Time after time Denver will look unstoppable at home, but then fail to bring the same tenacity on the road. I’ll sit this one out, but I can guarantee you this game will have a huge public backing.

– Cincy is also showing value in the money zone, but you’d have to be brave to go near that “falling knife” right now.  However, Green Bay is very banged up right now. They’ve somehow lost key offensive line members and important skill position players all at the same time. Line opened +10, but quickly retreated to +8 with reverse line movement in Bengals favor.

– The Patriots at -13 looked steep, but then my calculated spread almost matched it perfectly… “in the spreadsheet, we trust”

– I don’t ever recall a week with this many road favorites.  Like I said before proceed with caution!

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Nicholas Shorestein is an NFL writer & handicapper. He writes about NFL analytics and handicapping for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about the NFL on his blog ShoresteinSays.com. You can follow him on twitter @n_shorestein.

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