Back-to-back 2-1 weeks has helped me climb out of the hole I created in week one and we are now 4-5 on the young season. I nailed the Northern Illinois/Nebraska and Minnesota/MTSU contests but Purdue was a swing and a miss. The Boilers have been very impressive and I greatly miscalculated the quality (or lack thereof) of Missouri. Onward to week four!

Game of the Week – Maryland (-3.5) vs. UCF – 3:00 on FS1

I’ll start this by saying that I have a lot of respect for the Knights head coach Scott Frost and the UCF program. Before last season, I wrote that Frost would be the head coach at Nebraska when the 2018 season kicked off. While that may or may not happen, I still feel good about that prediction and he has the UCF program in terrific shape to challenge for an AAC title. That being said, UCF hasn’t played since the season’s opening week and pounding FIU doesn’t tell me anything. We don’t know anything about this current Central Florida squad. I believe McKenzie Milton is a very talented quarterback and I think the Knights have a very explosive offense but nothing has really been shown and it’s very possible they show a bit of rust early since they haven’t played a competitive game in quite a while.

Maryland, on the other hand, has been very impressive in two contests. They won at Texas, a victory that looked even better after the Longhorns battled USC in a double OT squeaker and slaughtered San Jose State. They also took apart Towson 63-17 and it could have been much worse. The combination of Ty Johnson (one of the best backs in the country and I have no clue why he’s not talked about more) and Lorenzo Harrison is lethal and both are capable of breaking off big runs every time they touch the ball. The difference between this year and last year is that they appear to be at least competent in the passing game. Kasim Hill turned from “the future” to “the present” when Tyrell Pigrome suffered a season-ending injury during the Texas game and he is now 16 of 19 for 207 yards and two touchdowns and both D.J. Moore and Taivon Jacobs are stepping up as receivers. I don’t think the Terrapins have a great, or even solid, defense but they are not awful. Actually, they have a pretty decent pass rush that could give the Knights some trouble. There is some excitement surrounding the Maryland program and I expect a good crowd in College Park. I’d take the Terrapins at -3.5 and I’d also place some money on the “over” as I expect a shootout.

ATS Pick of the Week – Penn State at Iowa (+13.5) – 7:30 on ABC

Penn State is a terrific squad, no doubt about that. They have steamrolled their opposition thus far and are bludgeoning teams with an explosive offense and a defense that is perhaps further along than anyone expected at this point in the season. That being said, the only competent opponent they played, Pittsburgh, did give them a bit of trouble (Pitt outgained them 342-312) and the Panthers were absolutely obliterated by Oklahoma State a week ago. I would consider PSU the favorite to win the Big Ten East. Despite being 3-0, I’m not sure what to think of Iowa. They were far from great a week ago for the better part of three quarters against North Texas but they ended up pulling away for a comfortable victory. I really like their running game with Akrum Wadley and their ball control offense could give them the ability to keep PSU’s offense on the sideline for long stretches of the game. The biggest reason for taking the Hawkeyes is that this game will be played under the lights at Kinnick Stadium and winning by more than two touchdowns is really difficult to do. Iowa just doesn’t lose at home very often and they will have an electric home crowd charged up from a day of tailgating. I think Iowa shortens the game, gets a good performance from Wadley and a better-than-expected Nathan Stanley (10 TDs/1 INT) and keeps this one close the whole way.

-Trend to Watch –

Riley on the Outs? – The speculation and conjecture surrounding Mike Riley’s job at Nebraska is beginning to mount following their loss to Northern Illinois. I have been thoroughly unimpressed by Tanner Lee and I think there is a lot of value going against the Huskers for the next two weeks. They are favored by 13.5 against Rutgers. While I am not making the mistake of taking the Scarlet Knights, I will be taking Nebraska to go “under” their posted total. I have no confidence in their passing game and I think Rutgers, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State (their next four opponents) will really test their attack. The total posted as 51 and I’d take the under.

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