West Coast Bias – Week Four Power Rankings

For those who haven’t been following weekly, the summary of the early week post is as follows:

At the beginning of each week I am providing an analysis of my power rankings and the raw data and trends I build into each line, which I measure against the posted openers. This allows me to arrive at what I call my “Average Variance” from the Vegas opener. Based onmy experience, any average variance > 4, from the posted opener v. my line will be in consideration for a play, (with the situational and technical aspects evaluated before I fire). This analysis also helps me fire early on games I see as having huge value as these plays are typically plays I see as positive ROI plays over time.

As you can see Week 1-3 have produced an 17-11-2 record.

Power Rankings Moves:

San Diego State – The Aztecs not only took care of Stanford, they looked equally as physical and fast and the defense stepped up a week after beating ASU on the road. Very impressed with Coach Long’s squad and RB Penny is doing awesome as the feature back. For them to win B2B games v. Pac-12 teams is huge and worthy of the upgrade from 76 to 78.

Based on the attached Average Variance Analysis our numbers show value on the following Week Four Games:

305 Virginia

313 Michigan (I hit this line Sunday night)

333 UCF

345 Georgia Southern

359 UNLV

361 Notre Dame

405 Nevada

408 ASU

BOL in Week Four and let us know in the comments if you have any questions – JWS