TSE College Football Discussion – Week # 1
BetOnline released college football point spreads and totals today for week # 1 of the 2012 college football season. So lets get the discussion started.
Week # 1 early selections
Without going into much detailed handicapping yet, three totals stood out to me and I made wagers on the following games:
- Previous 2012 College Football Win Totals – Boston College
- Next Iowa Hawkeye Football Q & A with Hawkeye Nation
21 thoughts on “TSE College Football Discussion – Week # 1”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Looking it over I like Michigan in week 1. Public will be all over Bama because of defending national champs. They will be young on defense and Michigan should be improved this year after a good year last year. Only question marks is Bama’s offensive and defensive lines versus Michigan’s……….any thoughts on this game??
I believe it was around mid-May I took Michigan +14. I thought that was too many points. I thought the line should be closer to 10-11. When it went back down to 10 about 2 weeks ago, I took Alabama, so I am off the game except for the middle opportunity.
The current line is 11.5 at 5Dimes, however if you like Michigan I would suggest you wait and see if the line goes back up towards the +14.
IMO there is no chance that Alabama’s defense will be as good as last season. Yes they have recruited well and they are replacing NFL talent w/ future NFL talent, but it is still less experienced talent. That is not to say that the Bama D won’t be good (real good), just not as good as arguably the best D in the BCS era.
I think the big question mark w/ Michigan is are they going to be able to replace the defensive linemen they lost from last season? I think Alabama’s OL will have the advantage in this game, especially this early in the season.
Bama’s D will be inexperienced, but it will still be athletic, and with so much time to prepare, I don’t know how successful Robinson will be against them. Toussaint is suspended for this game and you figure Saban will take the run away from Robinson and force him to beat Bama with the pass. I don’t think he can do it.
BJ, here’s what I have on this game (already posted once somewhere on this site):
Alabama without a doubt. I hope this line continues to drop and we will all get a bargain. In fact, it may be the only early bet I make because even an injury will not make Alabama any worse with their immense depth.
Guys, before you start getting overly impressed with Michigan, go back to last year’s schedule and ask the question, “who did they beat that really impresses me to think they have a chance to hang with Alabama?” THEY ONLY PLAYED 3 TEAMS IN THE TOP 25! They beat Nebraska, who I think was overrated at the time and didn’t belong in the top 25 anyway, and they beat Virginia Tech in the bowl game. The other team, Michigan State, was #23 whenever Michigan played them and Michigan was ranked #11. MSU beat them by 14 points! Bottom line on Michigan is that their record of 11-2 was not that impressive and I think it is largely getting blown out of proportion here in the preseason.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the direction that Michigan is heading under Brady Hoke, but I am still not impressed with the Big Ten’s strength overall and I think Michigan is at the lower end of the elite hierarchy of the NCAA in college football. Their numbers defensively last year were impressive, but once again, who did they play? Also, they allowed 190 yards per reception against teams who mainly emphasized the running game ( they allowed 4 ypc). Offensively, we all agree that Robinson is talented, but don’t you think Alabama is going to key on him and try to shut down the run game (like Michigan State did against them last season)? What are they going to do then? I’m not convinced that Robinson can win games with his arm. Against Michigan State he went 12 for 31 for 168 yards and was sacked 7 times. I am using MSU as an example because all-in-all I believe Alabama’s defense is going to be better than MSU’s.
So, with all this being said, let’s answer some questions with straight answers. Can Michigan run on Alabama? Once again, whenever it is all said and done, the speed of the SEC will make the Big Ten team seem like they are standing still. So, the answer is, no. Can Michigan pass well enough to keep them in the game? No. Can Michigan’s defense stop Alabama’s running game? Alabama brings back 2 RBs that are on par with what they lost in Robinson, AND they bring back almost their entire offensive line from last season. The answer is, no, Michigan cannot stop Alabama’s running game. Can Michigan stop Alabama’s passing game, well, if the running game is productive, like I think it will be, then it will open up the passing game. So, once again, I have to say, no.
It is all one-sided here, guys, and I will gladly take Alabama on a neutral site up to -14. Michigan is not ready for this caliber of competition yet this early in Hoke’s tenure. Prediction: Alabama 32, Michigan 10.
All good points on both sides……probably will leave that game alone. Question……once the season starts what is a good website to get team stats like NCAA rank team defense, offense, other important stats??
BJ, check out the NCAA site: https://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp
and another one I really like is: https://www.cfbstats.com/, they have some really cool stats here.
I also wrote a preseason resource guide here in case you haven’t seen it: https://dailysportsedge.com/1231/the-saturday-edges-top-10-college-football-betting-resources/
Pez, you like the under in the Boise State/Michigan St game, who do you like on the side?
SoonerBS, thanks for the Michigan/Alabama write-up. It was really informative. Not sure if I still want to give the points and Alabama at this point, but will certainly not be taking Michigan.
I love the focus of this website. The information is fantastic. Great job guys and good luck this season.
Davis, I like MSU on the side too. I think they are going to stomp Boise. An inexperienced QB and offensive line is not a good combination to be starting your season against this Spartan D.
I’m in agreement with SoonerBS on Michigan/Bama. But you still need to be careful with this line. If it gets up to 13 or higher, it will be a no play for me. Anyway I look at it, I don’t see Michigan stopping the Bama offense. But what concerns me in giving away too many points is when the line gets up around 2 TD’s, Denard Robinson and an offense with 6 senior or 5th year senior starters comes into play against a very green Bama defense.
One thing none of us know for sure is how quickly Saban will get his young defense up to game speed. It also takes a young defense some time to learn to disguise their covereges and blitz packages. The experienced teams do this well. But young defenses tend to have problems early in the year against seasoned QB’s.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Bama is the most talented team in the country. And I think if they can survive the early part of their schedule against Michigan and Arky, have a good chance of making it back to the BCS title game. But when you lose that many great players on defense, things aren’t going to go smoothly right out of the gate. That’s why I am a little hesitiant to give too many points here. SEC teams have traditionally had problems against good running Big 10 teams, as opposed to the spread offenses of the Big 12/Pac12. Hoke might choose to go right at them to test their toughness. It will be an interesting game. Bama will probably have too much quality depth for them in the end. But it still wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan keeps the score within 17 points or less.
This a purely knee jerk reaction thought. Rice + 15.5 and the Under
UCLA is starting a red shirt QB against Rice, Thursday Aug 30 2012
UCLA -15.5, O/U 56.
any thoughts?
Dave, I have not yet gone into detail with this game, and I’ve only looked briefly at Rice. However, I agree this could be a possible play on the under. UCLA will be starting a redshirt freshman QB behind a questionable OL. Mora wants UCLA to be tough, so I would expect a good dose of Johnathan Franklin and the running game. Plus UCLA’s D figures to be improved this season.
I will take a look at Rice in more detail later in the week and let you know my thoughts on them. I do know they had a pretty bad defense last season and lost several key contributors (which may be a good thing).
56 is a good number. 55 and 59 are the key numbers in this range.
Looking at these early play
All plays @ 5dimes.com
So. Carolina -6.5 (buying 1/2 point) @ Vandy
Minnesota -8 @ Unlv
Mich St -6.5 (Buying half point) vs Boise St
Penn St -6 (I know I am glutton for punishment)
Auburn +3 Vs Clemson
Western Michigan +9.5 @ Illinois
FIU +4 @ Duke
any comments ?
Dave,
I am on Auburn +6 right now and will add a moneyline play to that when it becomes available. I’m also on the under (63).
I lean South Carolina, but could also see that as a close game.
I think MSU beats Boise by DD, but prefer the under, and I don’t like betting the favorite and the under.
I personally wouldn’t touch Penn State. Too much uncertainty for me.
I have not yet looked at the other games.
I have my money laid on Michigan State and FIU and here are my reasons:
Michigan State -6.5 (-120) for 1 UNIT — Some people see this as a sucker bet because of the way Boise State has always seemed to play teams close and mostly winning in the season opener. There is no doubt that Petersen is good at preparing for these big games. However, This is the most inexperienced team he has had to field in some time. The days where teams “letdown” to play Boise State ended soon after Boise beat the Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan State has seen what Boise has done to teams on the road the last couple of years and believe Dantonio will have his team ready. Michigan lost Kirk Cousins this year to graduation, but Maxwell is not without experience. With a solid offensive line and their returning first string running back, Michigan State should be able to play their normal style of establishing the run game and look for a big play or two. It should be a lot easier against a Boise defense that brings back only 2 starters and seen very little experience at all. Added into this equation is the fact that they no longer have their great QB, Kellen Moore. This is a definite rebuilding year for Boise and I think this line has great value for MSU due to the past history of the Bronco team. I took this bet on 8-4-2012 because at that time Boise had also lost their starting WR (Boldewijn) and center (Yriarte) to injury. Boldewijn for possibly first 4 games and Yriarte for the season. Even though MSU could possibly suffer some injuries as well, I think their roster is deeper than Boise’s and they are better able to handle some losses. I don’t like taking bets this early, but I think it is warranted here before this line gets any higher.
Florida International +4 for 1 UNIT –Duke is the same old Duke. Every year we hear about how they are getting stronger, faster and more competitive. Every year is the year that they are going to finally get into a bowl game. AND, every year, they flop. Sorry, Duke lovers, I don’t see any difference here this season. It’s not that I don’t think Coach Cutcliffe is doing all he can, because I think he is doing the best job anyone could with this program. But, facts are facts, and Duke just isn’t going to ever be a competitive program in this conference. In fact, if it wasn’t for the money situation, they would be far better suited for the CUSA conference or Big Least. Still, once again, with 17 starters coming back from last season, this year looks promising. Let’s look at the numbers though — 22 ppg average on offense and they allowed 31 ppg on defense along with an allowance of almost 5 yards per carry rushing. There is a reason why they went 3-9 for the season . . . . . . . . . again.
FIU, on the other hand, went 8-5 and won some games against some upper echelon teams that no one thought they would beat like Louisville and UCF. They lost at home to this Duke team, but let’s ponder the reason why: they had started out the season 3-0 beating the likes of the Louisville and UCF teams that we mentioned and then, BAM, Louisiana beat them which was not expected. Sometimes the first loss after some great victories seems to suck the life out of a team. The next week following the Louisiana game, FIU played Duke. In the game they had 568 total yards to Duke’s 384! How does a team lose whenever they outgain the other team by 184 yards? Their heads were still in the first loss they had received the week previous. It’s college football, it happens. So, even though they were favored by 4 points, they ended up losing by 4.
Now, let’s talk this game. This is the season opener and there are no distractions. Both teams need all the wins they can get, so not even the next week’s game against Stanford should be a distraction to Duke. The bottomline here is that FIU has the better running game and the better defense. I think they are also more talented and better coached. They will be moving to the CUSA conference next season and I think they will want to show this season in every game that they belong.
Good stuff BS. I am in complete agreement on the MSU – Boise game. Non-BCS schools (and a lot of BCS schools) are simply not able to reload after losing so many key contributors.
I am going w/ the under in that game because everything I am reading is indicating that Boise is feeling better about their defensive replacements then they are about the offense.
Dantonio said that Maxwell is at the same place (in terms of understanding the offense) as Cousins was at this time last year. That is pretty high praise.
I think MSU should be able to grind out a DD win. Hoping for something like 24-14 or 31-17.
I have not yet had an opportunity to look at FIU – Duke in detail yet, but the FIU D should be the best in the Sun Belt this year.
I wonder how the loss of QB Carroll (a game manager) and TY Hilton (a playmaker) will effect the offense?
Pez, current info on FIU and how fall camp is going is non-existent on the web. I can’t find anything. From looking at some previews, Medlock is likely to take the starting role at QB. He had only 56 attempts last season, but he completed 66% with only 1 interception, so it looks like he should be able to manage the game well. RB, Rhodes will be the backbone of the team in the running game and should put up another 1,000+ yard season behind a solid offensive line. They have a kid named James Louis who should play WR this year. He runs a 4.4 40 and was a highly recruited player. I don’t know what the reasons were for his transfer.
FIU should be pretty well balanced again this season and some prognosticators are giving them a pretty impressive chance of going 10-2 (with losses to UCF and Louisville) so we’ll see. I know that I sure like Coach Cristobal and his record speaks for itself as to what he has been able to do with a Sunbelt team.
I left out that James Louis transferred over from Ohio State.
I love the way you guys break down games, I wish I was that articulate.
Going to Reno, NV
I will see what lines I get at the Peppermill Casino. Might have to shop around Reno.
these are tentatively opinions:
Thursday Aug 30 plays
Mich ST -6.5 and the under 53
Minnesota -8 @ UNLV
So Carolina Money Line
Minnesota -8 @ Unlv
La. Tech + 7.5 vs Texas A+M
Friday Aug 31
Mich St -6.5 (Buying half point) vs Boise St and the under 53-
Tennessee Money line
Saturday Sept 1
Penn St -6 (I know I am glutton for punishment)
Western Michigan +9.5 @ Illinois
FIU +4 @ Duke
Good Luck this year gentleman I truly appreciate you opinions and expert analysis. Keep up the great work
Dave
Pez, that 48 is long gone on the Colorado/CSU game. I am seeing 46 and 46.5 right now at my books. Would you still recommend the under at that number?
Terry, I believe I would play it above the key number 45, but for a smaller amount then my normal wager. At 48 I would play it for 1 unit, at 45 I would probably drop it down to 3/4 of a unit.
I had a discussion w/ SabertStxVii in his futures article about variable units vs flat betting. I am pretty much in favor of flat betting, but I will vary my wagers slightly if I get a line change (like in this case). I never do 1,2,3,4,5, etc units. I am always at or around 1 unit.
In this case I believe you can justify a variable on your usual unit because you KNOW that your +EV at 45 is not as strong as it is at 48.However, I still believe U45 or better is still a +EV wager. These are not very good offenses we are dealing with in this game.
I have read several articles of gamblers advice on unit betting over the years and for the most part, I ignored them all and had to learn the hard way. No matter how much I might like one particular bet, I started betting them all the same, 1 UNIT, last season and had one of my best seasons yet. I am a firm believer now that betting 1 UNIT on every bet is the best. I have seen guys (myself being one of them) who bet different unit amounts depending on what they deemed to be stronger bets. Having winning seasons percentage-wise, they still lost money because they lost their bigger bets and won their smaller bets.
I’m going back to betting one unit a game this year. I varied my bets last year, but in 2010 when I had a rough start to the season for the first time and found myself down, instead of chasing I just bet one unit a game until I broke even at the end of the year. That was probably the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do. It’s a very hard thing to do knowing that you’ve got a very strong play, but don’t want to chance losing on one game what you’ve built up for the last couple of weeks. This year I have a few reasons to believe there are going to be some rough patches for eveybody at some time during the season. So it might be better to keep the bets on an even keel. Just my humble opinion.