Georgia finished the regular season last year with 10 wins and the oddsmakers believe the Bulldogs will repeat that win total by setting UGA’s 2012 college football win totals at over 10 (+145) and under 10 (-185).
One area that we didn’t really tough on and is a big concern for Georgia is Special Teams. Georgia’s ST play was awful last year. This year it looks like two true freshmen will be starting at kicker or punter (those jobs are up for grabs when camp starts). In addition to that youth, Georgia was last in the SEC in opponent punt returns and gave up 2 TDs, plus they gave up the Melvin Ingram ST fake punt TD. Georgia was also dead last in kickoff returns as they also gave up 2 TDs in that aspect of ST. That’s about 2.5 points per game that ST’s gave up last year not to mention all the FGs that Blair Walsh missed.
Kevin, I have a spreadsheet that I use where I keep track of ppg allowed vs defensive ppg allowed and based on my numbers it is closer to 4.5 ppg. That’s HUGE!
I have UGA allowing 22.15 ppg (I do not include FCS numbers), but they only allowed 17.38 defensive ppg. According to my numbers they allowed 9 non-defensive TDs last year.
So on one hand the defense is better than some people think but on the other hand Special Teams really stunk last year. That will be a focus this year but with some of the roster attrition Georgia has seen over the last couple of years with guys seeking playing time elsewhere and knuckleheads being knuckleheads I would bet there will be a lot of youth on the coverage teams.
Well the ST’s were a disaster anyway you look at it. Tough to say just how good the D was since there were so many ST mistakes/scores.
In the 4 games they lost they allowed 7 (of the 9) non-defensive TDs (so either ST’s or pick six, fumble returns allowed by the offense).
In those 4 games they only held Boise below their offensive season avg ppg. South Carolina, LSU and MSU all scored above their offensive season avg.
Against the 5 best offenses they played last year (Boise, South Carolina, GT, LSU & MSU), they allowed 34.40 ppg to teams that avg 34.25. So more or less even.
But against the remainder of the schedule (again, I didn’t include Coastal Carolina) they only allowed 14.50 ppg to teams that avg 20.76 ppg.
Bottom line from last year, the D dominated the bad offenses but was pretty average against the good ones.
We paid damn good money for that Coastal Carolina game, how dare you not include it!
Another thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the strength and conditioning program. You can’t really judge it until games are played but last off-season they made a switch in that program and results were better last year but there were still times at the end of games where the team appeared winded. Now that they have been in the program for over a full year it will be interesting to see how that impact the team.
I also think it’s tough to just look at the five offenses you listed in a microscope. The Boise State and South Carolina games were at the beginning of the season and Georgia clearly improved after those two games and not just because of competition.
I do believe Georgia has a lot better quality depth in the front seven this year and it’s also Todd Grantham’s third year as DC.
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about this Georgia team and as we talked about some reasons to be apprehensive. It should be a fun year.
I don’t see any value in wagering Georgia over 10 wins, and see more value in the under. They could lose as many as 4 of the games listed in the article. The SEC opener at Missouri is going to be a battle. Georgia will be short handed in the secondary and Missouri is tough at home. Florida, South Carolina and Auburn will also be very difficult games. I can see them losing 2 of those 4 games. 10 wins just seems like their best case scenario and if you were to wager the under you are going to break even in the worst case.
I think Georgia has many more things going for them than against them. The biggest thing in their favor is their schedule. Anytime you can avoid Bama, LSU and Arky from the West, it makes the job a lot easier. This is basically a better team than last season with a similar schedule. At least they don’t have to open with Boise St. this year. Other than maybe Arky, i think Georgia has the most outstanding skill players in the league. I admit that special teams is a concern. I’ve heard many people say that OU would have won the national championship in 2008 if it hadn’t been for poor speical teams. So yes, it can sometimes make the difference in a tight game.
Georgia does have to go to Mizzou in their second game. But I have serious doubts that either Texas A&M or Mizzou can physically hold up against the elite teams of the SEC. And I consider Georgia one of them. Plus Mizzou QB Franklin and RB Henry Josey got hurt late last season, and are still rehabilitating their injuries. And the Tigers had a couple key defensive players sit out the spring with injuries. So it will be a wait and see with the Tigers if these players are ALL the way back.
Franklin should be ready to go week one but Josey might not play at all in 2012 and I really don’t think there is much of a chance of him showing up in week two against Georgia.
Same story different year with Georgia. It all starts at the top with this team and HC Richt has consistently failed to have this team prepared, notorious slow starters and has quit on the staff in the past.
I can’t recall a team, ever, who has made any form of serious splash when they lack solid coaching coupled with atrocious special teams. Throw in a weak offensive line and I see another failure in store for the Dawgs. If they can’t protect Murray against the ultra big, fast and athletic SEC defensive lines – he won’t last the season.
That being said, I still think they may win ten games, but fail to make the SEC title game. With the hype and schedule, that would be considered another failure. Outside of the areas mentioned above, UGA is loaded, everywhere.
I actually think Georgia may beat South Carolina, but they won’t beat Florida. If Florida has a pulse, they beat Georgia. I agree the Missouri game will be very difficult. The Tigers have a knack for giving “better” teams trouble, especially in Columbia. Georgia are notorious slow starters who are consistently unprepared for early season tests. In addition, you have team in Missouri with something to prove, superior coaching, superior special teams and home field advantage. I like a Tigers upset here, which would send the Georgia hype train spiraling, as usual.
One area that we didn’t really tough on and is a big concern for Georgia is Special Teams. Georgia’s ST play was awful last year. This year it looks like two true freshmen will be starting at kicker or punter (those jobs are up for grabs when camp starts). In addition to that youth, Georgia was last in the SEC in opponent punt returns and gave up 2 TDs, plus they gave up the Melvin Ingram ST fake punt TD. Georgia was also dead last in kickoff returns as they also gave up 2 TDs in that aspect of ST. That’s about 2.5 points per game that ST’s gave up last year not to mention all the FGs that Blair Walsh missed.
Kevin, I have a spreadsheet that I use where I keep track of ppg allowed vs defensive ppg allowed and based on my numbers it is closer to 4.5 ppg. That’s HUGE!
I have UGA allowing 22.15 ppg (I do not include FCS numbers), but they only allowed 17.38 defensive ppg. According to my numbers they allowed 9 non-defensive TDs last year.
So on one hand the defense is better than some people think but on the other hand Special Teams really stunk last year. That will be a focus this year but with some of the roster attrition Georgia has seen over the last couple of years with guys seeking playing time elsewhere and knuckleheads being knuckleheads I would bet there will be a lot of youth on the coverage teams.
Well the ST’s were a disaster anyway you look at it. Tough to say just how good the D was since there were so many ST mistakes/scores.
In the 4 games they lost they allowed 7 (of the 9) non-defensive TDs (so either ST’s or pick six, fumble returns allowed by the offense).
In those 4 games they only held Boise below their offensive season avg ppg. South Carolina, LSU and MSU all scored above their offensive season avg.
Against the 5 best offenses they played last year (Boise, South Carolina, GT, LSU & MSU), they allowed 34.40 ppg to teams that avg 34.25. So more or less even.
But against the remainder of the schedule (again, I didn’t include Coastal Carolina) they only allowed 14.50 ppg to teams that avg 20.76 ppg.
Bottom line from last year, the D dominated the bad offenses but was pretty average against the good ones.
We paid damn good money for that Coastal Carolina game, how dare you not include it!
Another thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the strength and conditioning program. You can’t really judge it until games are played but last off-season they made a switch in that program and results were better last year but there were still times at the end of games where the team appeared winded. Now that they have been in the program for over a full year it will be interesting to see how that impact the team.
I also think it’s tough to just look at the five offenses you listed in a microscope. The Boise State and South Carolina games were at the beginning of the season and Georgia clearly improved after those two games and not just because of competition.
I do believe Georgia has a lot better quality depth in the front seven this year and it’s also Todd Grantham’s third year as DC.
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about this Georgia team and as we talked about some reasons to be apprehensive. It should be a fun year.
I don’t see any value in wagering Georgia over 10 wins, and see more value in the under. They could lose as many as 4 of the games listed in the article. The SEC opener at Missouri is going to be a battle. Georgia will be short handed in the secondary and Missouri is tough at home. Florida, South Carolina and Auburn will also be very difficult games. I can see them losing 2 of those 4 games. 10 wins just seems like their best case scenario and if you were to wager the under you are going to break even in the worst case.
I think Georgia has many more things going for them than against them. The biggest thing in their favor is their schedule. Anytime you can avoid Bama, LSU and Arky from the West, it makes the job a lot easier. This is basically a better team than last season with a similar schedule. At least they don’t have to open with Boise St. this year. Other than maybe Arky, i think Georgia has the most outstanding skill players in the league. I admit that special teams is a concern. I’ve heard many people say that OU would have won the national championship in 2008 if it hadn’t been for poor speical teams. So yes, it can sometimes make the difference in a tight game.
Georgia does have to go to Mizzou in their second game. But I have serious doubts that either Texas A&M or Mizzou can physically hold up against the elite teams of the SEC. And I consider Georgia one of them. Plus Mizzou QB Franklin and RB Henry Josey got hurt late last season, and are still rehabilitating their injuries. And the Tigers had a couple key defensive players sit out the spring with injuries. So it will be a wait and see with the Tigers if these players are ALL the way back.
Franklin should be ready to go week one but Josey might not play at all in 2012 and I really don’t think there is much of a chance of him showing up in week two against Georgia.
Same story different year with Georgia. It all starts at the top with this team and HC Richt has consistently failed to have this team prepared, notorious slow starters and has quit on the staff in the past.
I can’t recall a team, ever, who has made any form of serious splash when they lack solid coaching coupled with atrocious special teams. Throw in a weak offensive line and I see another failure in store for the Dawgs. If they can’t protect Murray against the ultra big, fast and athletic SEC defensive lines – he won’t last the season.
That being said, I still think they may win ten games, but fail to make the SEC title game. With the hype and schedule, that would be considered another failure. Outside of the areas mentioned above, UGA is loaded, everywhere.
I actually think Georgia may beat South Carolina, but they won’t beat Florida. If Florida has a pulse, they beat Georgia. I agree the Missouri game will be very difficult. The Tigers have a knack for giving “better” teams trouble, especially in Columbia. Georgia are notorious slow starters who are consistently unprepared for early season tests. In addition, you have team in Missouri with something to prove, superior coaching, superior special teams and home field advantage. I like a Tigers upset here, which would send the Georgia hype train spiraling, as usual.