2016 Big Ten Football Pick of the Week – Week # 12

Ohio State (-22) at Michigan State – Noon on ESPN

After a dip in the middle of the season that saw them lose to Penn State and struggle against Indiana, Wisconsin and Northwestern, the Ohio State Buckeyes are now clicking on all cylinders. In the past two weeks, they have beaten both Nebraska and Maryland by a score of 62 to 3. The Buckeyes have put more of an emphasis on getting the ball to Curtis Samuel and their offensive line appears to have gelled and is doing a better job of protecting J.T. Barrett. The blowout win at Maryland was expected but it was still impressive in its comprehensiveness. OSU could have won that game by however many points it wanted to. In addition, their defense has locked in and is playing as well as any unit in the country.

Michigan State is now 3-7 and coming off of their first conference win. I know the Spartans are tempting as 22 point underdogs but I’m not swayed by a 49-0 crushing of Rutgers. Malik McDowell is likely out for a second straight week and the Spartans defense will not be able to deal with the speed and skill of the Buckeyes offense. On the other side of the ball, MSU hasn’t been able to consistently run the ball all season and they’ll be unable to generate much on the ground in this one. That will leave them unable to protect Tyler O’Connor and none of the pass catching targets are going to scare this elite OSU secondary. I think Ohio State jumps on the Spartans early and I don’t worry about them looking ahead to their clash with Michigan. Take the Buckeyes as 22-point favorites.

ATS Underdog

Indiana (+28) at Michigan – 3:30 on ESPN

The Indiana Hoosiers haven’t beaten the Michigan Wolverines since 1987. They haven’t won in “the Big House” since way back in 1967. Lyndon Baines Johnson was the President of the United States and “The Turtles” had a number one song on the Billboard Top 100. It has been a long, long time since IU had success in Ann Arbor. There’s good news though…IU won’t have to win this game for this to be a smart move. The Hoosiers are getting 28 points and that’s too many points for a program that has been consistently competitive against top teams. The Wolverines are the fourth top ten team that IU will be playing this season. IU battled Ohio State well into the fourth quarter, they outplayed Nebraska and should have beaten them and they were ahead of Penn State deep into the fourth quarter before falling apart in the final minutes. IU’s quarterback, Richard Lagow, is playing his best ball and appears to be “getting it” after transferring from junior college and the Hoosiers have the nation’s most improved defense. Just last week against Penn State, the Hoosiers held Saquon Barkley to less than two yards per carry. Michigan is coming off of a poor performance at Iowa and they’ll certainly be looking to rebound with a good performance before going to Columbus. However, they’ll be without quarterback Wilton Speight and John O’Korn will be starting his first game since his time at Houston. Michigan’s defense is elite and IU will be very fortunate to score more than 14 but I’d be quite surprised if Michigan was able to rack up a total in the 40s. The Wolverines will win comfortably and extend IU’s drought in Ann Arbor for the foreseeable future but take the Hoosiers at +28.

Trending Up/Trending Down

Trending Up – Wisconsin Offense: Wisconsin has an elite defense. If they have figured out to be a decent offense, they become one of the best three or four teams in the country. This is meaningful because if they win out, they might find themselves in the College Football Playoff as a team you are interested in wagering on as a big underdog. Since their moribund victory over Iowa, the Badgers have scored 23, 21 and 48 points and their yardage on offense is increasingly weekly. The big reason for optimism as far as betting goes is the defenses the Badgers are going against. This week, they take on the conference’s worst defense as they head to Purdue. The week after that, they play the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Wisconsin hasn’t figured things out to the extent where I’d feel good about them moving the ball on good defenses like Ohio State or Michigan (or Alabama if they are the fourth seed in the CFP) but they are good enough offensively to outperform offensive expectations for the next two weeks. Their running game is very solid and Corey Clement is a good back. I think Alex Hornibrook is an exciting young quarterback and I like him over Houston as the leader of the attack. The Badgers don’t have a good offense but it will look like one for the next two weeks.

Trending Down – Maryland Offense: After establishing itself as a good running team in the first half of the season, the Maryland Terrapins have fallen apart on both sides of the ball. They have taken a massive step-up in competition and they now face the prospect of playing indefinitely without starting tailback Lorenzo Harrison (suspended indefinitely). They have a total of six points in the past two weeks and they now must take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers and their improved defense. The final week of the season should be better (against Rutgers) but the early excitement surrounding new coordinator Walt Bell has evaporated and it has become clear how much work DJ Durkin has ahead of him to turn Maryland into the program every analyst continues to tell us it could be.