Sometimes you watch a college football game and come away thinking that both teams should hold their heads high because each played as well as they could. But, in this past Saturday’s 24-20 victory for the West Virginia Mountaineers over the Texas Longhorns…it was more the opposite…

 

• West Virginia won despite turning the ball over four times against a defense that hasn’t done a good job of forcing turnovers all season. This, combined with their turnover-ridden road loss at Oklahoma State made it clear that West Virginia isn’t anywhere near an “elite” football team this season. Yes, they still only have one loss. They just happen to play in a struggling conference where you can get away with having an erratic quarterback.

• Texas suffered three turnovers themselves. But, they also had a failed fourth down try…which is a virtual turnover. And, they had a field goal blocked, which took points off the board. So, it “felt” like a 5-4 turnover loss for Texas. Worse, the offense showed that it had no idea how to deal with creative blitzing from an opposing defense. Rushers weren’t picked up. Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele didn’t see those rushers even when they were running free right at him!

This wasn’t a cleanly played 24-20 win for West Virginia. It was a sloppy, mistake-riddled interminable affair that had fans of both teams yelling at their head coaches and quarterbacks.

 

That fifth loss for Texas surely seals the deal on the Longhorn head coaching career of Charlie Strong. Best case scenario is now 8-5, which could only come with a win over TCU Thanksgiving Weekend followed a month later by a bowl victory. Even if you pencil in a win over horrible Kansas, 6-7 is still in play. Just not enough to save his job…particularly when you consider…

• Texas isn’t contending, despite playing in a poor conference

• The Texas offense is predictable, and ill-equipped to handle blitzes

• The Texas defense is still prone to offer gaping holes to opposing offenses

• The Texas kicking game still hasn’t figured out how to block rushers

What started the season as “these kids are playing great considering their youth” is now “this is November, these kinds of mistakes shouldn’t still be happening!” The talent is here to bully the bottom half of the Big 12. Against other talent, Texas just doesn’t measure up to what’s expected of a program with such a huge pool of resources.

 

 

Let’s get to the boxscore. Note that things are a bit warped because Texas ran 100 plays, compared to just 73 for West Virginia…

West Virginia 24, Texas 20

Total Yardage: West Virginia 383, Texas 536

Yards-Per-Play: West Virginia 5.2, Texas 5.4

Rushing Yards: West Virginia 114, Texas 218

Passing Stats: West Virginia 21-35-3-269, Texas 31-50-1-318

Turnovers: West Virginia 4, Texas 3

Third Down Pct: West Virginia 53%, Texas 29%

Play Count: West Virginia 73, Texas 100

In short…West Virginia was able to move the chains consistently…but erratic quarterback Skyler Howard kept giving away those gains with poor downfield passes. (It’s easy to see why West Virginia had been more conservative this season than in the past…you HAVE to be conservative with THIS quarterback!). Texas couldn’t move the chains, and couldn’t maximize their scoring chances even when they did move the ball. Stud running back D’Onta Foreman broke off a few big runs. His 167 yards with no TD’s helps tell the story. Foreman would make a play, but that would be followed by a stuff or a QB sack. Yardage in the middle of the field but few third down conversions.

Because of the upsets of the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the playoff rankings this past Saturday…there’s some talk in the media about the Big 12 champion possibly sneaking back into the mix. It’s been pointed out that a one-loss West Virginia team might have a case to make.

• West Virginia is currently 8-1

• Beating Oklahoma next week would push them to 9-1 with a major statement win

• Winning out as favorites over Iowa State and Baylor would yield 11-1

• The only loss would have come on the road against respected Oklahoma State

This is one of those things that looks okay on paper but doesn’t pass the eye test. NOBODY watching the road games at Oklahoma State and Texas would think of West Virginia as one of the top four teams in the country…or one of the top 10 teams in the country. Their schedule has largely been weak. Among the victories are home nailbiters over relative mediocrities BYU and Kansas State.

A big home win over Oklahoma this weekend could change people’s minds. You know the TV announcers in that game will be hyping the Big 12…which could pay off if more upsets occur in other conferences.

Ultimately, though, the fact that there’s a large chunk of “OK” teams across the major conferences this season has helped muddy the picture just beneath the super powers. SOMEBODY has to rank in the top 10, even if there may be only six or seven “top 10 caliber” teams right now. And, given the losses from Clemson, Michigan, and Washington (particularly the latter two), there’s certainly a lack of clarity about what “playoff caliber” even means at the moment.

This series of articles has been a “case study” for Texas. We may have reached the point where we know what we need to know. The “shock the nation” tour didn’t happen. Charlie Strong has little chance to survive what is now at best a five-loss season given the lapses in fundamentals that are still present. There should also be concern that the high-energy offense is really just riding a superstar running back like he’s Secretariat against a slew of crappy defenses (then throwing deep over defenses who have snuck up to stop the run).

Texas has been a money-maker against market prices because many opponents were more overrated than they were! They will have a chance to do that again with Kansas and TCU still ahead. Something to look forward to for the program and fans. But, West Virginia was a flunked test that will lead to offseason changes. And, the recent win over Baylor looks worse now than it did at the time given how poorly Baylor has played since then. (Basically a mid-season replay of the Notre Dame scenario…Texas wins a home nailbiter over a team that subsequently gets exposed badly as a pretender).

See you next week with a review of Texas/Kansas, and any other developments that would fit within the parameters of this case study.