Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns (-14, O/U: 69.5)

One would assume that revenge would be on the mind of the Texas Longhorns this week- It’s one thing to lose to Iowa State, but quite another to be shut out.  However with the rumors swirling around the 40 acres about Coach Strong’s job security and with Tom Herman looking increasingly available after Houston’s loss last week, it seems that the players are more focused on keeping the AD off of their backs.  Coach Strong’s return to the defensive coordinator left much to be desired last week, as OU piled up almost 700 yards of offense last week, further exacerbating his hot seat situation. Meanwhile on the other side of the field, Iowa State comes into this game confident that they can play with anyone in the Big 12 after two very respectable outings against some of the conference’s best.  The question is can Iowa State actually stop the collapses that have doomed them in the fourth quarter after giving up two 17 point leads in consecutive weeks.  Will the Longhorns quiet the questions about Coach Strong’s job for a week, or will Iowa State pick up a win that makes Coach Campbell’s debut season a success?

The Pick (of the week): Take the Cyclones and the points.  Texas 40, Iowa State 34

This one is an interesting match up for a number of reasons.  Texas’ new offense has more or less lived up to the expectations this year, scoring over 30 points in every game so far this season, and over 40 in all but one.  The QB combination of Shane Buechele passing and Tyrone Swoopes power running has racked up just under 498 yards a game.  The real star of the UT offense this season has been RB D’Onta Foreman, who has put up a combination of big plays and bulldozing tuns to average just under 150 yards a game at almost 7 yards a carry.  With this level of offensive production, why should you have any faith in Iowa State being able to slow Texas down?  Simply because they’ve done it before.  Texas has imported the Art Briles offense courtesy of one of his old coordinators, and Iowa State has already faced Baylor this year.  While the Cyclones did end up blowing their lead in the fourth quarter, through the first three they did an admirable job of keeping hold of the ball and keeping Baylor out of the end zone.  Iowa State gave up a few big plays, but none of them ended up in the end zone, allowing the Cyclones to make more goal line stands to keep Baylor out of the end zone.  Where this turns even more interesting is that Texas has had special teams issues this year, missing three field goals and four extra points(!) which could well take much needed points off the board if Texas can’t punch it in in the red zone.

When Iowa State has the ball things are even more interesting, as Texas’ defense has been gashed by everyone other than UTEP- owner of Conference USA’s worst offense in virtually every category, and third worst scoring offense in the nation.  Even including the Miner’s performance, Texas is 118th in FBS in scoring defense, the worst in the Big 12 behind even Texas Tech(!).  Meanwhile, outside of laying an absolute egg at Iowa in week 2, Iowa State’s offense has been pretty decent, scoring over 30 points in three consecutive weeks and quarterback Joel Lanning is actually developing into a very capable dual-threat quarterback… when he’s not forced to split time with the less accurate and more turnover prone Jacob Park.  Iowa State appears to have the three things you need to frustrate the Longhorns defense: A Bellcow running back, a quarterback who can move and receivers who can make punish a secondary if they have to hold onto coverage for too long.

Finally looking at the series history, Iowa State hasn’t lost to Texas by more than 3 points in any of their games against Charlie Strong, including their 24-0 drubbing of the Longhorns in Ames last year.  While Texas’ offense may well be able to put up the points to outscore the Cyclones, their defense seems determined to make sure that the game stays interesting throughout.  With Texas being one of the big name programs that people love to put money on, the 14 point line is very generous for a team that hasn’t looked that good since week 1’s triumph over Notre Dame, who isn’t looking too hot themselves this year either.  Take Iowa State and the points and feel pretty good about it- even if the Cyclones blow another 17 point lead, they probably won’t blow it to lose by 15.

Big 12 Bullets

• As the data starts to pile up, the picks are looking better.  Last week we went a nifty 3 for 3, as KU easily beat the spread against TCU, OSU and ISU went over 66.5 and Texas Tech covered with the +7.5 at KSU.
• Last week’s Kansas cover against TCU was a nice pick, but the reason to consider them as a road dog to Baylor this week isn’t necessarily because they’re improved- TCU always plays Kansas close, so you shouldn’t extrapolate too much from that one performance.  Instead, look at that massive 35 point line and think that with KU’s improved front 7 and an offense that seems to have found some things that work, it’s unlikely that a Jim Grobe coached Baylor team is going to want to rub it in to the tune of 36 points.
• Stay away from a pick in West Virginia @ Texas Tech, but the under is worth considering.  This is West Virginia’s first road outing of the season and Lubbock is a nightmare of a place to play, so it’s hard to feel too good about either team’s chances to win, but West Virginia’s defense should be enough to keep the Raiders from covering their half of a huge over of 84.