2016 Big Ten Football Pick of the Week – Week # 7

Minnesota at Maryland (-6.5) – Noon on ESPNU

Both of these teams will be attempting to bounce back from very disappointing performances last Saturday. Maryland suffered its first loss of the season, getting run over by the Penn State Nittany Lions, and Minnesota fell to 3-2 on the season with a home loss to Iowa in a very ugly game. I’m taking Maryland, the home favorite, in this game mainly because Minnesota’s offense is an absolute mess. Mitch Leidner was receiving NFL Draft buzz heading into this season but he was incredibly underwhelming last week against a previously struggling Iowa defense. I like the running back duo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith but their passing game is very poor and I think Maryland’s defense will show some pride and have a nice day after being embarrassed by Penn State.

Things really fell apart for the Terrapins in State College once Perry Hills left the game with a shoulder injury. He’s considered “day-to-day” and he’s expected to play. Hills is not a good passer, in fact, he’s barely adequate, but he is better than back up Tyrrell Pigrome. If he doesn’t play, this bet becomes much less comfortable for me because I think the defense at least somewhat respecting Maryland’s passing game is critical to their rushing success. Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson are both impressive running backs and I like their ability to punish Minnesota on the ground. Harrison is averaging 8.2 yards per carry and Johnson is averaging 10.4 yards per carry and they each have runs of more than 60 yards.

Neither squad boasts anything resembling an explosive passing attack but I like Maryland to bounce back and have a better day running the ball, and containing the run, than the Gophers. Take the Terrapins at -4.5.

Bonus Pick

I loved the Indiana Hoosiers as 7-point home underdogs against #10 Nebraska and I was set to give that game as my ATS Upset Pick. However, the line has since dropped all the way to 3.5. I like IU’s chances to win the game but they haven’t beaten a top ten opponent at home since 1965 (I’m an IU fan, trust me, I know that may seem like a typo but it is not) and it’s difficult for me to hand them out to win straight-up when it hasn’t happened since the beginning of Lyndon B. Johnson’s second term as President. If you can get good value on taking IU to win the game, I’d go ahead and do it. I don’t like any other underdogs this week but I do like another favorite: Ohio State (-10.5) at Wisconsin. 

The Buckeyes were frustrated by Indiana’s defense last week as they were held to 38 points. That number doesn’t seem low but 14 of those points came on drives that started inside of IU’s ten-yard line. Another touchdown came on a short-field. I don’t think Wisconsin’s offense is capable of scoring more than 14 points against the Buckeyes elite defense which means the Ohio State offense only needs 24 points to be on the verge of covering. It’s extremely rare for J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense to have back-to-back “off” weeks and I think they’ll the trio of Barrett, Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber will get back on track and crank out a nice day against the Badgers. Take OSU at -10.5.

Trending Up/Trending Down

Trending Up – Penn State offense: Joe Moorhead’s offense is really starting to take shape in Happy Valley. The new offensive coordinator has things clicking since their Big Ten opening shellacking at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines. Since that embarrassing performance, the Nittany Lions put up 471 yards against Minnesota and 524 yards against Maryland. Trace McSorley is proving to be a very capable runner, rushing for 73 and 82 yards in the past two games, and Saquon Barkley finally exploded with a huge day against the Terrapins. Penn State scored 33 against Kent State, 39 against Pittsburgh and 34 against Temple before being held to only ten points by the Wolverines. That performance was concerning but it appears to be an anomaly that can mostly be attributed to Michigan’s defense being fantastic and not due to a poor offense that would be exposed in the Big Ten. They have a bye week before being able to test themselves against the Silver Bullets and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Trending Down – Rutgers offense: Barring a major turnaround, this is likely the only time I’ll put Rutgers into a trending up or trending down category because they appear to be at rock bottom. The Scarlet Knights may presently have one of the worst offenses in recent Big Ten history. They have played three Big Ten games and they lost star playmaker Janarion Grant during the conference opener against Iowa. They have scored a grand total of seven points and gained less than 600 total yards. In the past two weeks, the Scarlet Knights have completed five passes and gained only 125 yards. Robert Martin is a very capable back but the passing game is virtually non-existent and the offensive line is getting destroyed by the better defensive fronts in the Big Ten. Things should go a bit better against Illinois and Minnesota than they did the past two weeks but it’s hard to envision Rutgers winning a Big Ten game with this offense that is seemingly bereft of playmakers and a defense that is getting hammered and worn down.