2012 College Football Win Totals – LSU Tigers
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12 thoughts on “2012 College Football Win Totals – LSU Tigers”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I agree with you, which is precisely why I think Phil Steele is off his rocker this season. Anyone who is predicting a National Championship game without an SEC team, likely LSU or Alabama again, in it, is just not doing their homework. LSU is going to be damn tough to beat this season.
Bama and LSU should win at least 10 games. The only thing I’m not totally convinced of just yet with LSU is the QB position. I know Mettenberger is supposed to be a step up in talent, but even though he looked good in the Spring, he’s still untested in a real game against a top notch SEC defense. It also didn’t help that their top receiver Rueben Randle left early for the NFL. So he doesn’t really have a true number one go to receiver. The game I’ll be watching closely is when they pay a visit to Florida in the Swamp. We should find out all we need to know about their QB after that game.
The Gators should have a nasty D, so they’ll definitely test him. Speaking of losing Randle and the LSU receivers, Kris (from Saturday Night Slant) did mention the following which I did not include in the write-up:
I did not touch on LSU’s receivers, but I really expect Odell Beckham Jr. to step up and become a star. He caught 41 balls as a true freshman, and he’s one of the best looking athletes on LSU’s team….and that says something. Another sophomore, Jarvis Landry, is a tough, physical, steady player. He may not make the highlight reel plays but he’s the kind of guy that when you look at a boxscore after the game, you’ll be surprised when he has seven catches for 95 yards. I see both guys really benefiting from having Mettenberger under center.
I’m in the minority, as usual, but I’d go under 10.5 wins for LSU. I certainly don’t discredit any of the comments in this article or follow up posts regarding the talent level the Tigers have in place, but it’s incredibly difficult to repeat what LSU did last season.
The Tigers were on pace for one of the greatest seasons in college football history. They dismantled and embarrassed two BCS bowl winning squads away from home in Oregon and West Virginia in non-conference games. They made the mighty SEC look like a bunch of HS teams, destroying the likes of Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn and knocked the Tide off in their house. They closed the magnificent campaign railroading Georgia in the SEC title game. It truly was something special and I can’t recall a team having this type of schedule and dominating nearly every team they played, in recent history.
However, it all came to a crashing halt in the title game as the Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed by Alabama in their own back yard. I think the magnitude of what occurred in that game is either lost or overlooked by many “experts” and media outlets. For the level of success the Tigers displayed in 2011 versus the opposition they played, the title game was a colossal failure of epic proportions. This ranks up there with some of the biggest busts in sports history, let alone college football history. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State couldn’t close the deal at the end of the season or we would be talking about how the 2011 LSU Tigers were one of the best teams ever, because they would have smashed the Cowboys similar to the names listed above.
You don’t simply roll out of bed and move on from this, not in any sport. The stars aligned for LSU last season and it is extremely unlikely they will again in 2012. Throw in a very questionable head coach who consistently does less with more, an improved SEC top to bottom, less cohesion across the starters and new quarterback and I’d put my money on a few losses. I actually think LSU might beat Alabama this season and still fail to win the West.
Road trips to an improved Auburn team, Florida and Arkansas should all challenge the Tigers and home games with very game and well coached teams in South Carolina and Alabama will lead to two-three losses this season IMO. The defense should again be excellent, but squads like Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina should be very dominant as well on the defensive side of the ball. The gap has closed. The offense could struggle with a transition at QB (much needed) and an offensive line that wore down as the season went on last season. I expect a lot of defensive battles for the Tigers this season in conference and expect this team to look a lot more like the 2010 version than the 2011 version. I’m going 9-3 or possibly 10-2, which many may have a hard time wrapping their head around after last season, but that type of thinking/logic will usually get you in trouble. This will be far from a one game season for LSU and Alabama (11/3) and don’t be surprised if both teams finish the season with a couple losses.
certainly cant expect another season like last from LSU. but they will have the best D, special teams and OL in the country. that will hide minor potential deficiencies in WR and nickle back. saying they will lose two games is not based on logic, just some historical expectation that teams lose. hell, LSU could lose to any SEC foe and UW.
Alabama will be very tough. Arkansas and USC will be very tough for 3 Qtrs. Florida and Auburn will be tough for a half.
The DEs will dominate. There will be tons of take aways and ST plays leading to many short fields. Their will be more INTs by the O but more passing TDs too.
Bottom line–no solid reason to predict anything other than 1 loss to Alabama.
Jed –
I don’t fully disagree with you, but do think its rather audacious to assume LSU would have the best OLine, defense and special teams in the country.
I’ll play along – I could see defense and special teams, but the offensive line won’t even rank in the top ten of the country, very good no doubt and deep, which will help, but this unit eroded down the stretch last season and was outplayed in their last three-four conference games, the SEC title and the championship.
Granted, the superior defense masked this, which could happen again.
In addition, we must have different parameters around judging coaches, as well. If I understood your comment, you think Miles is number two behind only Saban? I don’t see it, not by a long shot. I could think of 20-25 coaches who would do a better job at LSU than Miles. Miles doesn’t bring the talent there, it will always be there regardless of who the HC is. Bottom line, he continues to fall short of expectations, year in and year out and 2012 should be no different.
So you honestly believe Miles deserves no credit for winning 80% of his games (highest of any LSU coach including the all mighty Saban). You mut be young and not remember LSU pre-Saban because LSU lost all instate talent and was a mediocre program. Miles and staff recruit their butt off and evaluate talent like no other team as evidence with Claiborne and Mathieu. So go ahead and bet under 10 wins for LSU this year (I’d like to see proof you did cause I think you’re talking out your ass) and we’ll all laugh at your dumb ass.
Chad –
Thank you for chiming in. You are correct – I likely won’t be playing Under 10.5 wins for LSU this season, but simply stating that would be the direction I would lean. There are totals with more value available IMO.
As for Miles, I think he is good coach, just not a great one as many media outlets suggest. Bottom line, he was expected by the experts to win more games than he has and he holds one of the worst records of any coach in games he is not expected to win (29%). Those figures are fact. If someone wins 80% and is expected to win say 85% its no different than coach who wins 50% and is expected to win 55%, still falling short of expectations.
Les does “less with more”????
11 wins per season. Guess he could average 12 per season
68% of stats are made up on the spot
Northshore –
I fully understand that LSU has won a lot of games under Miles (10.7 per year including post-season – avg 13.3 games per year), but you can’t look at wins in a silo. In nearly every season under Miles LSU has fallen short of expectations or met expectations.
Miles has only been an underdog 17 times in seven years at LSU, but has a 5-12 record in those games. In addition, LSU have averaged more than one loss per season as a favorite.
In 2005, they lost twice as favorites at home to Tennessee and were blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game. The Tigers were expected to be unbeaten that season.
In 2006, they lost the only two games they were underdogs in. The 2007 team, which was incredible, lost at Kentucky and at home to Arkansas in the finale, both as double digit favorites. 2008 produced two more losses as favorites and 1-3 mark as dogs, 2009 another loss as a favorite and again a 1-3 mark as a dog.
2010 the Tigers split four games as dogs and last season they lost the title as a favorite, although they did win both regular season games as dogs.
To me, seems like the Tigers can’t beat teams that are considered better than they are (29.4% win pct) and lose to slightly more than one team on average (1.14 per year) they should beat.
I’m not rolling out any coaching awards for those numbers, especially given the talent the Tigers have. A better coach would have more wins and Miles fell short of the experts expected returns. I don’t care if you average seven wins or ten wins a season, LSU was projected to win on average one more game per year under Miles than they have.
just looking at #s is way too simplistic. its all you can do if you are analyzing the entire field, but when you look at one team you can examine the reasons. 2007 was an NC so its real hard to ding CLM for 2 losses (in OT). 2008 and 2009 struggles were largely because of the perilloux problem. freshmen QBs were forced into action, had abysmal performance and were scarred forever.
the real issue i have with this is who is better when you take all that a coach is into consideration? i say saban is the only one better (and they are even head to head). others either cant bring in the talent or arent consistent.
Northshore & ERockMoney,
According to the CFBMatrix coaching effect chart (https://cfbmatrix.com/portfolio/coaching-effect-2012/gallery/mainframe/), Les does have a negative coaching effect, but it is only -1 over a 5 year period (about -.20 per year).