2012 College Football Win Totals: Arizona State
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8 thoughts on “2012 College Football Win Totals: Arizona State”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Don’t be surprised if Northern Arizona beats Arizona State in the opener. It would certainly be an upset, but Northern Arizona will not be too bad this season.
SoonerBS, that is crazy talk. LOL! Actually I haven’t read much of anything about NAU this year. But the recruiting mismatch is just too big for the Lumberjacks to overcome.
Yeah, I hear you, Pez. There use to be a time whenever it was crazy to think that ANY FCS team could even contend with an FBS team, let alone beat one. But, alas, times have changed as we have witnessed several FCS victories over FBS teams the past several years.
Just looking at the record, Northern Arizona was 4-7 last year which doesn’t seem very special. However, they play in one of the best conferences, if not THE best conference in the FCS, the Big Sky conference. Although NA lost 7 games, they were in almost every one of them losing most of them by only 3 points or less! Whenever you consider that fact and also that they bring nearly everyone back, I think they will give ASU a pretty good game.
I’ll know a little more about them in a couple of weeks whenever Phil Steele gets his FCS Preview magazine sent out. But, there are a few links on the web to get some basic info on FCS teams out there.
HC Todd Graham: 1st he was the DC here in Tulsa, moves to Rice as HC for a year then returns to Tulsa as HC. While HC @ TU, the OC was Gus Malzahn, now HC at Ark. St. after his stint as OC at Auburn. Gus was the offensive guru. Todd the defensive. Graham was a disaster at Pitt. He may be one here at 1st. His defenses depend on speed and the players knowing what to do. I don’t think he has either here at ASU. He loves the no huddle spread, but its all predicated on the QB. A rookie in this spot is going to be tough. Asking the RBs to bail the QB out all the time may be asking to much this 1st year. People do love Todd Graham, he has energy and enthusiasm, and runs an exciting brand of football. But until he gets his own recruited players to fit his style ball, may be a long year.
I think you give ASU too much credit vs. Ill & Utah at the beginning of the year. It’s going to take awhile for the new off/def to gel at ASU, even for home games. If they go on the road to Col. and lose a squeaker, this team may be so depressed and in the midst of whole sale changes by then they won’t win a game the rest of the way. This ASU team could go 1-11 and if Sooner is correct @ NAU (but no worry there, he never is)..could be a long year. I would lean to the under 5.
Best of Luck Pez.
jimmyd.
jimmyd, thanks for the thoughts. I am definitely first to admit that I want to give ASU as much benefit of the doubt as I can, while still trying to be objective.
You do bring up some very good points about the new off/def probably needing some time to gel. However, let me offer a few thoughts/rebuttals:
1. You suggest that ASU doesn’t have speed on defense. I don’t believe talent and athleticism is ASU’s problem. They have plenty of talent on hand. I’m not saying it is USC talent, but it is enough talent to beat all but two (USC & Oregon) teams on their schedule on a given day (I pick Mizzou & Cal as losses because they are away). Experience, as you point out, is the concern.
2. Illinois will also be learning new off/def systems and though I agree w/ everyone that Utah will have a good season, I think it is more because of their schedule then their overall talent (which is no better than ASU’s, UCLA’s, AZ’s, etc. though I will concede they have a lot of experience).
I’m projecting 5 wins …. 6 if they get some really good bounces (but I realize that is being very, very optimistic). Just don’t see this being a 1-11, 2-10 or even a 3-9 type of team. They are going to beat a few teams they aren’t expected to, and since expectations are so low, they really don’t have to worry about getting “upset” except by NAU (no way SoonerBS) and probably CU (they are already a 5 point favorite in that one according to the LVH).
Pez
Pez and jimmyd ….. I think you both are right. ASUs season can go either way. They have enough talent returning to win 6 or 7 games including a few they won’t be expectd to win as Pez says. But they will probably lose a few they shouldn’t because of the learning process that jimmyd talks about. I agree that USC, Oregon, Missouri and Cal are definite losses and NAU and colorado are wins. But feel they will be very fortunate to split the reamining six games, which would take them to only 5 wins. That appears to be their win ceiling and I think that will take a few of those good bounces that Pez is hoping for.
And all this just goes to show one thing. Those guys in Vegas are Real Good. One for an over, one for an under, and one for a tie. Just the kind of response Vegas is looking for. Looks like the 5 is a dead on number. No wonder all those sports books stay in business.
And bye the bye, will be visting Vegas for the 1st weekend of football.