B1G Teams Most Likely to Breakout in 2016

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Mike Riley’s first season as the head coach of the Nebraska Cornhuskers didn’t go according to plan. After firing Bo Pelini, many hoped the Huskers would improve from their consistent 8 and 9 win seasons and begin to challenge for B1G West titles. However, they sputtered to a 5-7 regular season before impressively knocking off a wounded UCLA Bruins squad in their bowl game to finish Riley’s first campaign at 6-7 (7-6 ATS).

The fan base wasn’t sold on the hire when it was announced and many are already restless. If 2016 doesn’t go significantly better, Mike Riley’s stay in Lincoln may be exceedingly short. Thankfully for him (and the Husker faithful), “significantly better” is exactly what I think Nebraska will be.

If you can remember the 2015 season for Nebraska, you will probably recall quite a few heartbreaking defeats (as well as one shocking upset). They began the season by losing on a last-second Hail Mary to BYU. They followed that up with a week three collapse and late-game defeat at Miami. They lost at Illinois by a point, dropped games to Wisconsin and Northwestern by two points apiece, lost at Purdue without starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong and lost to Iowa by eight.

In total, while Armstrong was starting, Nebraska lost six games by a total of 21 points. They ended the season at -4.81 points per game via Turnover Luck. In short, Nebraska’s 2015 season was marred with some rotten luck. If nothing else, I’m betting on “water finding its level” in 2016. Add with 14 returning starters and a schedule that’s not too difficult, the Huskers are set for a rebound season.

The offense enters year number two under offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf and the players, especially senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong, should have a much stronger grasp of the system. Running back Imani Cross is gone but Terrell Newby, Devine Ozigbo and Mikale Wilbon all return.

Many believe this is the deepest and most talented group of wide receivers Nebraska has ever had as every significant contributor in that position returns. Jordan Westerkamp is the steady constant, Brandon Reilly could do with more consistency but he’s a very good player, Alonzo Moore is another senior that has been productive and Stanley Morgan Jr. showed flashes of brilliance last season. De’Mornay Pierson-El is an electric playmaker that was injured midseason in 2015 and he can make a huge difference when healthy. The tight end group has a lot of potential and I think the duo of Cethan Carter and Matt Snyder could combine to be one of the finer tight end duos in the B1G.

The offensive line is young but they have quite a bit of talent. The offense was 36^th in the S&P+ rankings in 2015. That’s solid for a first year coordinator but I’d expect a big step forward in 2016 and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Nebraska’s offense producing at a top-20 level.

Nebraska’s run defense was very strong in 2015. Unfortunately, the same could not be said for the pass defense. The passing defense was ranked 81^st in the country and there were times when they looked as bad as any pass defense around. The Huskers struggled to generate a pass rush and they didn’t generate enough takeaways.

The interior defensive line (a strength in 2015) has to replace a couple of key contributors and the secondary is still a huge question mark but this defense doesn’t have to drastically improve in order for Nebraska to have a successful campaign. Rather, they just need to find a way to eliminate a couple of big plays each game and find a way to stiffen in the game’s final couple of minutes.

Nate Gerry returns to lead the secondary and Joshua Kalu showed some promise as a young defensive back. The linebackers are pretty solid and Freedom Akinmoladun is set for a big step forward in his sophomore season.

The largest questions are going to be who steps up as the defensive end opposite of Akinmoladun and who can fill in for the departed defensive tackles? If the answers to those questions are adequate, this defense could be a top-75 unit. Certainly not great but that would be good enough to help Nebraska improve by at least a couple of wins.

As I wrote earlier, the schedule isn’t particularly easy but it’s not terrifying either. The Huskers begin the season with three non-conference home games: Wyoming, Fresno State and Oregon. A 2-0 start is a requirement and there’s no question the game against Oregon will have Memorial Stadium rocking.

During the B1G season, the Huskers host Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland and anything short of 4-0 would be a big disappointment. Their conference road games are more difficult as they face trips to Northwestern (replacing 11 starters), Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State (replacing a whopping 16 starters) and Iowa. That’s a difficult road to hoe and I think Nebraska fans should be quite pleased if the Huskers can manage a 3-2 split.

The floor for this team should be 8 victories and I could see the ceiling being as high as 10-2.

 

 

Michigan Wolverines

It’s difficult to put a team that went 10-3 (7-6 ATS) in the 2015 season as a “breakout” candidate. However, I believe that Michigan will jump from third in the B1G East to the top of the division and I could see their win total improving by two games. Plus, last year was a surprise but I think their success in 2016 announces the Wolverines have arrived as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender for the foreseeable future.

Michigan returns 14 starters from their surprising 2015 squad and Jim Harbaugh and his staff continue to bolster the roster with elite-level recruiting.

The defense was elite by pretty much any measurement as they stifled opponents (particularly throughout the middle portion of the schedule) and finished with the second ranked defense according to S&P+.  Overall, they actually finished the season as the 6^th best team in the country and they ended the season with a resounding 41-7 romping of Florida.

The Wolverines have a big question mark at quarterback after Jake Rudock exhausted his eligibility. Houston transfer John O’Korn has reportedly been the most consistent passer during Spring practice and Michigan beat reporters are indicating he is the most likely starter when the regular season begins.

Shane Morris, Wilton Speight, Alex Malzone and Brandon Peters are the other options but it would be a surprise if any of them beat O’Korn out. After Rudock was successful in 2015, I have faith this coaching staff will find success with whomever they line up under center.

The offensive line probably won’t be elite but it should be more than adequate. The skill position groups are where things get interesting for this team as both running back and wide receiver are stocked with some very intriguing options.

De’Veon Smith returns to lead the attack but his primary backups will likely be a pair of highly-regarded true freshmen in Kareem Walker (top rated RB in last year’s recruiting class) and Kingston Davis. Guys like Derrick Green and Ty Isaac could also get carries. The running game was solid in 2015 but it could be explosive and imposing in 2016.

Top wide receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson both return for their fifth and final seasons. They both had at least 50 receptions in 2015 and combine to form one of the top duos in the league. They’ll be joined by true freshman Ahmir Mitchell, a top-rated 6’3” target projected to see a lot of early playing time. Jake Butt is one of the best tight ends in the country and he returns to provide a great option as a blocker and pass catcher.

The offense won’t be the best in the B1G but it will be improved from last season.

Meanwhile, the defense has to replace some top contributors but there’s no reason to expect it will be anything less than very good. Expecting this unit to repeat the performance from 2015 is likely delusional but several talented returning players and some top recruits should gel to form a top-15 defense.

The number one recruit in the country, Rashan Gary, enters along the defensive line and he’ll likely start from day one as a replacement for Willie Henry. Another top recruit, Devin Bush Jr., appears likely to start at outside linebacker and provide some athleticism and speed to the position.

It sounds like Jabril Peppers has done some work during Spring practice at linebacker as well, an intriguing position switch for the defensive back turned safety (and now turned part-time linebacker perhaps?).

Chris Wormley returns as a leader on the defensive line and he’ll pair with fifth year season Matt Godin and junior Brady Pallante in addition to Rashan Gary as part of the defensive tackle rotation. Taco Charlton is the only guaranteed starter at defensive end and he could be in line for an All-B1G season. Lawrence Marshall appears to be in line for the other starting DE position.

Linebacker is certainly the position with the most questions after the departures of six contributors. Ben Gedeon, Chase Winovich and Noah Furbush along with the previously mentioned Devin Bush have the inside track at starting but this group will need some time to mesh.

Jourdan Lewis leads an elite group of defensive backs and Jabril Peppers and Dymonte Thomas will pair as the starting safeties. While this won’t be the second-best defense in the country, they will still be very strong.

The schedule sets up more favorably than last year’s did as Michigan doesn’t have to face an early trip to Utah. Instead, they will host Hawaii, UCF and Colorado in the non-conference. Anything other than 3-0 would be a shock.

They have home games against Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Maryland and Indiana (again, anything other than unbeaten would be surprising) and road trips to Rutgers, Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State.

While Michigan State and Ohio State still have plenty of talent, they are both replacing a lot more lost production than Michigan. It’s reasonable to think the Wolverines could go 12-0 and I think anything shy of 11 regular season wins would be a bit of a disappointment.

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