Big Ten Betting Notes – May 19, 2016

 1. Lost in a Haze(ll)

Darrell Hazell is entering his fourth season as the head coach of the Purdue Boilermakers. To say it has not gone well would be a massive understatement (to quote Mad Men’s Pete Campbell, things have been “not great Bob!”). Hazell is only 6-30 straight up and he has yet to win more than three games in a season or more than one conference game in a season.

Hazell has managed to knock off a grand total of three FBS opponents in his three seasons in charge and things don’t look all that much better for the 2016 season. The Boilers have to replace their top two offensive linemen and the best members of their secondary. That being said, there was some value to be found when betting on Purdue.

Their woeful won/loss record under Hazell has led to them being heavy underdogs in most of their games. They were only 5-6 against the spread (ATS) in their eleven contests as an underdog last year, but the Black and Gold was a surprising 4-1 ATS away from home. Those four ATS covers included a three-point loss (as 23-point underdogs) at Michigan State, a 17-point defeat (as 21.5-point dogs) at Wisconsin, a seven-point loss at Northwestern (as 14-point underdogs) and a 20-point loss at Iowa (as 23-point underdogs).

In total, Purdue covered those four road games by an average of 8.625 points per game. The Boilers are likely to be underdogs in all five of their road games in 2016 (Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana) but none of the opponents figure to be overwhelming. If you plan on betting on Purdue at any point in 2016, save your money to take them as underdogs when they travel away from West Lafayette.

 

2. Close Doesn’t Cut It

The 2015 Nebraska Cornhuskers finished the regular season with a 5-7 record (6-6 ATS). The seven defeats equaled the most for the Big Red since 1958 and it was only their third losing record since 1969. In short, Mike Riley’s first season in Lincoln was a disaster.

However, things were very close to being quite different. Nebraska lost their opener to BYU on a Hail Mary and their second defeat came in week three at Miami thanks to a late Hurricanes touchdown that capped a massive comeback (or a massive Nebraska collapse depending on which angle you’d like to take).

They were knocked off by one point at Illinois in the B1G opener and lost by two to both Wisconsin and Northwestern in the following weeks.

Tommy Armstrong was injured for their trip to last-place Purdue and the Huskers coughed the ball up five times in a ten-point defeat.

In total, Nebraska’s first four defeats came by a total of 13 points. While just being “close” isn’t going to be enough for Husker fans, it seems highly likely the rotten close-game luck Mike Riley and his Nebraska squad suffered through in 2015 will not be repeated in 2016. This means there should be some value to be had for bettors.

Nebraska’s offense should be one of the more explosive units the people in Lincoln have seen recently as Tommy Armstrong returns and is flanked by one of the best wide receiver corps in school history. The defense has to replace the interior of the line but the linebackers and secondary return mostly intact and there’s reason to hope the defense jumps into the top 50.

The first seven games of the season features games against Fresno State, Wyoming, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue (along with a huge matchup against Oregon). It seems reasonable to expect the Huskers to at least match their regular season win total by October 22 and I believe there will be value on both the over/under and on the Huskers to cover the spread based on a perception that the program is not in great shape. The lines will catch up fairly quickly but there’s some money to be won in the first few weeks of the season.

3. Overrated or Underperforming?

The Michigan State Spartans had a spectacular season by nearly every measure. They went 12-1 before losing to eventual national champion Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinal. They won at Ohio State and knocked off Michigan to win the B1G East and they defeated Iowa to claim a B1G Championship.

However, they were unspectacular in one aspect: the Spartans were only 3-7-1 Against the Spread (ATS) as a favorite. They began the season by not covering the spread during the first six weeks of the season and they were then upset by the Nebraska Cornhuskers as a 3.5 point favorite. The struggles as a favorite were a mild surprise because the Spartans were 8-3 as a favorite in 2014 and 6-4 in that scenario in 2013. However, since 2010, the Spartans are only 30-28-1 as favorites (a cover percentage of 51.7).

The value on the Spartans is definitely when they are underdogs, a position they are likely to find themselves in on multiple occasions in 2016. Since 2010, Michigan State is an impressive 15-6-1 ATS as an underdog.

MSU has to rebuild their offensive line, replace QB Connor Cook and top wide receiver Aaron Burbridge on offense and they must replace five starters on defense. Their schedule features road trips to Notre Dame, IU and Penn State and very tough home contests with Wisconsin, BYU, Michigan and Ohio State.

It would not be a surprise to see MSU as an underdog in three or four of the aforementioned tilts and history tells us that when the Spartans are dogs, they cover more than 70% of the time. When you have a chance to get points with Mark Dantonio, it seems wise to take them.