Big 10 Football: Alabama v Michigan – Who to bet on?
We end our Big 10 Football Q & A sessions today with a gambling related question. Advising us who to bet on in the Alabama v Michigan game are Joe Beale of Eleven Warriors, Kevin McGuire of the Nittany Lions Den, Eric Cooper of Buckeye House Call, Andrew Coppens of MadTown Badgers, Ryan Aylsworth of Midnight Maize and from The Saturday Edge, Maggiore.
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4 thoughts on “Big 10 Football: Alabama v Michigan – Who to bet on?”
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Alabama without a doubt. I hope this line continues to drop and we will all get a bargain. In fact, it may be the only early bet I make because even an injury will not make Alabama any worse with their immense depth.
Guys, before you start getting overly impressed with Michigan, go back to last year’s schedule and ask the question, “who did they beat that really impresses me to think they have a chance to hang with Alabama?” THEY ONLY PLAYED 3 TEAMS IN THE TOP 25! They beat Nebraska, who I think was overrated at the time and didn’t belong in the top 25 anyway, and they beat Virginia Tech in the bowl game. The other team, Michigan State, was #23 whenever Michigan played them and Michigan was ranked #11. MSU beat them by 14 points! Bottom line on Michigan is that their record of 11-2 was not that impressive and I think it is largely getting blown out of proportion here in the preseason.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the direction that Michigan is heading under Brady Hoke, but I am still not impressed with the Big Ten’s strength overall and I think Michigan is at the lower end of the elite hierarchy of the NCAA in college football. Their numbers defensively last year were impressive, but once again, who died they play? Also, they allowed 190 yards per reception against teams who mainly emphasized the running game ( they allowed 4 ypc). Offensively, we all agree that Robinson is talented, but don’t you think Alabama is going to key on him and try to shut down the run game (like Michigan State did against them last season)? What are they going to do then? I’m not convinced that Robinson can win games with his arm. Against Michigan State he went 12 for 31 for 168 yards and was sacked 7 times. I am using MSU as an example because all-in-all I believe Alabama’s defense is going to be better than MSU’s.
So, with all this being said, let’s answer some questions with straight answers. Can Michigan run on Alabama? Once again, whenever it is all said and done, the speed of the SEC will make the Big Ten team seem like they are standing still. So, the answer is, no. Can Michigan pass well enough to keep them in the game? No. Can Michigan’s defense stop Alabama’s running game? Alabama brings back 2 RBs that are on par with what they lost in Robinson, AND they bring back almost their entire offensive line from last season. The answer is, no, Michigan cannot stop Alabama’s running game. Can Michigan stop Alabama’s passing game, well, if the running game is productive, like I think it will be, then it will open up the passing game. So, once again, I have to say, no.
It is all one-sided here, guys, and I will gladly take Alabama on a neutral site up to -14. Michigan is not ready for this caliber of competition yet this early in Hoke’s tenure.
SoonerBS, I placed a wager on Michigan at +14 (thought it was too many points), and got Alabama -10 yesterday, so I will attempt to middle it.
The more I looked into the game the more I came to more or less the same conclusion(s) as you did. Especially Michigan’s need to run the football against a stout Bama run D.
Just think Bama forces Robinson to beat them w/ the pass and I don’t believe he can do that.
BAMA to me should wear down MICH in the 2nd half and take this game.
I think you have to go with Bama up to a certain point. My cutoff would be -13. After that your getting into iffy territory because of Saban’s coaching style. He’s a coach that could care less about the line. And he’s always thinking ahead when it comes to his schedule.
From things that I’ve heard about him, he likes to try out a lot of players in the first two or three games to solidify his positions. Probably even more so this season since he lost so many starters on D to the NFL. And there is no doubt that he’ll be thinking ahead to Arkansas in two weeks. He’ll want to go into that game at full strength, and he won’t want to get any unnecessary injuries to his starters by running up the score. Bama is the kind of team that is consitently good ATS because they don’t play a style of football that puts up outrageous numbers on offense. And in turn, the linemakers don’t set outrageous lines with them. Also Bama many times won’t cover their spreads by very many points. The best thing a bettor could ask for who likes to make blind bets with a particular team.
Another good thing about this team is the coaching and recruiting at Bama is at such a high level right now that there really isn’t such a thing as rebuilding to this program. And so very little dropoff. If they can get by Arkansas in that third game, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Bama back in the NC game.