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Last Week’s Premium BEST BET Analysis and Write-up for Oregon +3 

213 Oregon +3

The more I look into this one the more it seems like it will come down to QB play. If Vernon Adams starts for Oregon, and he’s 100% healthy, I believe the Ducks win this one outright. His ability to pass the football opens up the Oregon offense, which allows their excellent group of receivers to get involved, but more importantly it opens up the running game and the beast that is Royce Freeman.

If Adams isn’t healthy and ready to go — and everything I am reading seems to suggest he will play — then we are stuck with Jeff Lockie and former walk-on Taylor Alie, which really limits Oregon in the passing game. 

How much does that limit Oregon’s passing game? Adams, who was injured in the opener against his former team Eastern Washington, still leads the team in passing with 581 yards (four touchdowns, two interceptions). Lockie has 544 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Alie has added 96 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

At quarterback for UDub is true freshman Jake Browning, who is still a work in progress. In fact his efficiency stat line is nearly identical to Oregon’s Jeff Lockie … Browning is 9th in the league in pass efficiency (129.11), Lockie is 10th (128.81). Browning has a 5:5 TD:int ratio, Lockie has a 5:4. Browning is completing 61.3% of his passes, Lockie 64.3%.

So if the QB situation is equal — meaning Vernon Adams does not play or he plays but isn’t 100% — we have a good match-up of strength vs strength & weakness vs weakness.

Oregon’s defensive weakness is their young secondary, but can UDub take advantage of that with a true freshman QB and average receivers? Especially considering that Oregon is really starting to apply some serious pressure on the QB. Oregon has a dozen sacks and 20 TFLs over the last two weeks. WSU’s Falk, an experienced QB, was able to have some success against the pressure, Colorado QB Laufau, another experienced QB, wasn’t. I think the frosh struggles.

Washington leads the PAC 12 in run defense allowing 3.06 yards per carry and 121.6 yards per game, but …

The Huskies haven’t faced a running game like the Ducks possess, with or without Vernon Adams at QB. Oregon’s rushing offense ranks 6th in the country at 318.67 ypg and Royce Freeman ranks 6th in the country in rushing with 143.17 ypg.

This is not the vintage Quack Attack of past years, but they’re still averaging 528.7 ypg & 41.5 ppg, which is a lot more firepower than Washington possesses. The Huskies are averaging just 21 points in games against FBS opponents and if Oregon starts cranking, the Huskies are unlikely to keep pace. 

Oregon hasn’t lost in this series in over a Duckade (11 straight wins by 17 points or more) and I do not believe they have any intention of allowing that streak to end anytime soon. 

With Adams:  Oregon 35-24

Without Adams:  Oregon 28-27

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