Offense

The offense should be better in 2015, if only from a position of mathematical necessity. The offense last year was 11th in the ACC in total offense, 11th in points per game, 13th in rushing offense… And the ACC in 2014 wasn’t exactly murderer’s row. When the only teams looking up at you in the standings are Syracuse and Wake Forest, it’s probably time for a change. 

But change is what we’ll see. Matt Johns took the QB1 spot away from Greyson Lambert in a competition that Mike London described as “not close.”

Losing RB Kevin Parks hurts the backfield, but reports from the spring are that Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell is finally turning into the back he was supposed to be; Daniel Hamm and Jordan Ellis also ran well during the spring game.

The wideouts feature reliability in Andre Levrone and Canaan Severin, and UNC transfer TJ Thorpe has shown his big play ability. If the offensive line gels well, the offensive unit could take a significant step forward.

Defense

The defense probably will be worse, if only from a position of mathematical necessity. I know I repeat myself, but the defense was one of the lone bright spots in 2014. Coordinator Jon Tenuta finally had the pieces he needed to play the pressure-and-takeaways defense he was known for.

Gone from that unit are DE Eli Harold, OLB Max Valles, and S Ant Harris, three of the lynchpins of the scheme who should hear their names called during the NFL Draft. Also gone is ILB Henry Coley, who quarterbacked the defense and never seemed to play out of position.

The good news is that Virginia’s defensive recruiting has been its strength. ACC Freshman of the Year Quin Blanding returns to patrol the defensive backfield. Fellow five-star recruit Andrew Brown has shaken off an injury-plagued freshman campaign and dominated the defensive line in spring ball. Kwontie and Mike Moore (no relation) flank Brown on the line with experience and girth, while Maurice Canady, Demetrious Nicholson, and Tim Harris give the Hoos three very solid corners to play nickel packages.

It may not be the whirling ball of destruction it was in 2014, but the Virginia defense should still be the leading element of the Cavaliers football season.

Buying/Selling

Finding 6 wins and a bowl game with Virginia’s 2015 schedule is … daunting. The Hoos open the season at UCLA, then host Notre Dame and Boise State (with FCS William & Mary in between). If Virginia is better than 1-3 when it starts ACC play, a lot of Wahoos will be VERY pleasantly surprised.

Swapping Florida State for Syracuse as the Atlantic Division cross-over game will help, and there could be 3 or 4 wins in the middle 5 games of the schedule (@ Pitt, Syracuse, @ UNC, Georgia Tech, @ Miami). But the closing stretch is brutal: on the road at a Louisville team out for revenge after last year; home against a Duke squad that has shown they can utterly out-coach Virginia; and then closing against Virginia Tech, who the Hoos haven’t beaten in more than a decade.

As much as it pains me to say, I doubt there’s more than 5 wins in those 12 games.

Paul Wiley of Streaking The Lawn provided the information for our Virginia football spring update.  For more Virginia football information, commentary and analysis, you can follow Paul on Twitter @PWiley87.