Overall Record: 25-17

Tournament Record: 15-4

We have finally arrived at the Final Four. Coming in to tonight’s match ups, we have built a 13-game winning streak while pushing our record to 15-4 in the tournament overall. Tonight’s match ups are very favorable as well, and we think we can extend the streak even further. 

Wisconsin (+5) vs. Kentucky: Frank Kaminsky was just named Player of the Year after averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds a game over a very impressive season. In tonight’s game, he will need to play some of his best basketball if Wisconsin is to have a chance of knocking off Kentucky.

In arguably Kentucky’s closest game of the year, Jerian Grant of Notre Dame missed a three at the buzzer that could have sent Calipari and the Wildcats packing, but here they are in the Final Four. There is a lot to like in Wisconsin in this match up, however, and it starts with Kaminsky.

Although Kentucky has the largest starting lineup in all of basketball (College and NBA), Kaminsky stands at 7 feet and can do a couple of things that the Kentucky big men cannot. He can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court, including a 41% mark from 3 point range, and he can also attack the basket with his dribble.

Although the Wildcats have great shot blockers, Kaminsky has an array of moves and fakes that can get the shot blockers in the air and into foul trouble early on. In addition, the Badgers shoot the ball very well as a team, and they don’t commit a lot of turnovers, a stat that is vital to beating teams like Kentucky who will make you pay for every mistake.

Wisconsin rebounds the ball well as a team, which will help to neutralize Kentucky’s main source of offense, second chance points, and keep the number of possessions close throughout the game. They hit their free throws, shoot well from distance, and don’t turn the ball over, and I think those 3 things are a perfect combination to pull off an upset tonight and reach the championship.

I think 5 points in this situation is a gift, especially after Kentucky showed their weaknesses against Notre Dame. Sam Dekker will be the X-factor in this game, and if he plays anything like he did against Arizona, Wisconsin will win this game. We definitely like the money line in this game as well, but if you want to play it safe, take the Badgers +5.

Duke (-6) vs. Michigan State: You may have heard that some crazy guy in Vegas has a $20,000 bet on Michigan State to win the whole thing and would win $1 million if they manage to do it. That said, he is going to lose $20,000 if he doesn’t hedge his bet. We have made a play on Michigan State in every round of the tournament, and with good reason. Once they got past Virginia, it was a relatively easy path to the Final Four due to NC State’s upset of #1 seed Villanova, and the Spartans took advantage of the opportunity.

Now, I am excited to see Tom Izzo against Coach K in what will surely be one of the best coached games of the season. However, although both teams have hall of famers on the sideline, I think Duke has a lot more talent out on the court. Justise Winslow has shown that he can be one of the best overall players in the country when he needs to be, stepping up in the last two games where Jahlil Okafor has struggled to score and dominate the game.

Winslow has been everywhere, seeming to tally at least one stat in every major category since the tournament began. Duke had a very easy road to Indianapolis as well, with their toughest game coming against Utah in the Sweet Sixteen where they managed to hold on to win by 6 in what was a poor performance for the Blue Devils, but Coach K had them back in form in the Elite Eight against Gonzaga.

I think Okafor will finally show up to play tonight, as he has quite a favorable match up down low against a small MSU team, and that could very easily make this a double digit win for Duke. I think the Blue Devils match up well at every position offensively, and if they continue playing strong defense as they did against Gonzaga, limiting an offense that was scoring 82.3 PPG in the tournament to just 52 points, then they will come out of this game with a wide margin of victory and head to the championship game with a chance to give Coach K his 5th NCAA championship.