Record YTD: 4-5

Madigan Gym sells out every year for this game.  There is no bigger event then when the Bulldogs come to town in February.  This game is circled on the calendar in the beginning of every season and this year is no different.  The St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga match-up has quickly become one of the best rivalry games in college hoops (okay, maybe just on the west coast). 

This won’t be the most popular bet, strictly because of the team I’m betting against, but it’s not the team I’m betting, it’s the spread.  Savvy sport bettors look at the number, not the team.  Tonight’s match-up between St. Mary’s and Gonzaga is a perfect example of such philosophy.  As I’m writing this summary, the line has moved a point against St. Mary’s, which is great for me.  It’s to be expected considering 81% of the public is in support of the Bulldogs.  But I’m seeing value.  Especially, when the line has ONLY moved a point due to the lopsided betting percentages.  This tells me the odds-makers are hesitate to move the line too much and are taking a position. 

With St. Mary’s avenging a 21 point loss from earlier in the season and trying to make a statement for a tournament berth, additional motivation will not be necessary.  7 points is too many for me to pass up.  Consider the home dog tonight. 

Consider: St. Mary’s +7