College Basketball Picks for 2/14/15
YTD RECORD: 17-10
Last week was a solid week, finally getting over the hump and sweeping the card at 4-0, bringing the season record to 17-10. As always, feel free to comment below or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!
UNLV @ Air Force -1
I’m going back to the well with Air Force this week in an eerily similar matchup that we got last week. UNLV is coming into this game without their leading scorer Rashad Vaughn. who is going to miss the next month or so. This is obviously a huge blow for a UNLV team that was pretty pedestrian to begin with, and simply cannot afford to lose such a valuable piece of their team. It is going to be very difficult for them to replace his 17.8 ppg. I’d also like to thank Air Force for getting run out of the gym at Boise on Wednesday, presenting some significant line value here in my opinion. Had Air Force played very well at Boise after their dismantling of Wyoming last week, they would have been a few points higher in my opinion. As I wrote last week, gettting Max Yon back for Air Force has been a huge boost for them, and if Air Force can avoid being beaten on the boards by a significant margin I see them walking away with a win and covering the short number on Saturday.
St Mary’s @ San Diego -1.5
Quite a few angles I like to play line up here for a play on San Diego. To start, it is a revenge game for the Toreros, after losing by 12 to St. Mary’s in their first matchup. Also, this is a travel schedule nightmare for St. Mary’s. The Gaels had a 9 PM game Thursday night in Utah against BYU, who we know loves to get up and down the court at a grueling pace, and then have a 4 PM (1 PM local) tip against a Toreros team that is going to be out for blood and revenge. I feel like the country falls in this perception trap every year that St. Mary’s is a lot better than what they really are. Given the circumstances of the spot and the travel, with revenge on the line, I had San Diego as a 4 point favorite in my projections. San Diego has been playing good ball as of late, winning 5 of 6, and is hitting their stride at the right time. I like the Toreros to cover the short number as a home favorite.
Villanova @ Butler +1.5
Hinkle Fieldhouse is going to be rocking for this game tomorrow. I watched Villanova against Providence on Wednesday night, and I saw a lot that I liked from the Wildcats in a hostile crowd, but I think the matchup is going to be much different for them Saturday night at Hinkle against Butler. If you’ve been following college basketball for the past decade you know this is an absolutely money spot for Butler as a short home dog. These teams played earlier in the year at Villanova, a 12 point win for the Wildcats, but it was one of the worst offensive performances the Bulldogs have had all year, shooting only 35 percent from the floor and their second worst point total of the year as well. Butler is a team that is always going to be built on strong defensive principles, and they have gotten a lot better as the year has progressed with their offensive efficiency. I like Butler’s ability to frustrate Villanova a bit from the perimeter and force them into making life a little more difficult than they’d like it to be. I like Butler to get a big win on Saturday as a short home dog.
Florida @ Texas A&M -3
What you’ve seen the last week from Florida is a team who has watched their postseason aspirations completely vanish. Florida is coming off two heartbreaking losses, most recently a 1 point loss to Ole Miss last night on a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left, after pouring their hearts out in a home game against Kentucky. As if the scheduling spot couldn’t be worse for Florida, Michael Frazier is out for the year as well. Florida’s offense is already putrid, and given the definite loss of their best perimeter shooter, it could be an ugly night for the Gators against a Texas A&M team that is good at guarding the perimeter and 3 point line, but can be exposed a bit on the interior. I had Georgia as an underdog to Texas A&M on Wednesday, but that was less of how I feel about the Aggies and more about what I like with UGA. Here’s a stat for you: in the five games that Texas A&M has lost this year, they’ve won the next game straight up four times (the lone loss being Kentucky) and covered the spread in all five games. It’s very clear that the Aggies know how to bounce back from a loss with a good performance and everything sets up for a comfortable win Saturday.
3 thoughts on “College Basketball Picks for 2/14/15”
Leave a Reply to Greg Smith Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Hopefully the invisible hand makes us some money.
Adam great picks! I agree with all of them. My top 2 plays are
Penn State -1 and Illinois State +5. Good Luck today!
The only game I wagered was Butler, and I had +2.5 w/ game tied at 65…. Nova drains a 3 pointer w/ :01. How many times do you even shoot from 3 as your last shot w/ the game tied?