The Middies

Navy comes into this game 6-5. Less than a stellar season by their standards. With 15 starters back and coming off a 9-4 season bigger things were expected in 2014. It simply didn’t happen.

Much of it had to do with a defense that hasn’t played as well as they did last season. And also mistakes have plagued this team, which is very uncharacteristic for Navy. They are -2 in turnover margin compared to +7 last year. I can’t remember the last time that Navy had a negative turnover margin.

Navy has had no problems moving the ball this year. Even against their better opposition like Notre Dame and Ohio State. I expect to see the exact same game plan for this game since they’ve only thrown the ball 115 times all season. Navy will have success behind QB Keenan Reynolds, who is also their leading rusher.

But as stated, Navy’s defense has been nothing special this year. They’ve only held their opponents under 20 points one time, which makes anything over a 2 TD spread much harder to overcome. Especially against a big rival.

The Cadets

On the other side we have an Army team who throws the ball even less than Navy. Less than 100 times on the season. And like Navy, their QB is leading their team in carries.

The biggest difference between Army from last season and this year’s squad is they have first year coach Jeff Monken. A coach who has been around the game a long time, and knows the option offense and Navy very well. It’s led to improvement this year on the defensive side of the ball where Army has been better defending the run (188/204), and a slight improvement in defending the pass (224/233).

The Pick

The thing I’ve noticed with this game is the spread seems to be getting bigger every year.  It was 12 last season. I think it’s probably to the point where it has maxed out.

Yes, Navy has the more talented team. It’s been that way for the last decade or so. And half of these games seem to be close and the other half don’t, like last year.

But with the combination of a renewed energy and new coach, it could make this one a little different game. Few would disagree that Navy is the easy betting pick, but covering this spread is a different kind of task.

With the total moving down but the line staying the same, in what is anticipated to be a slow moving game that will be Army’s bowl game and an end of the season game for Navy in which they’ll be bowling in a little over a week, I rather side with the dogs. Take Army +15.