YTD: 23-11 +10.36 units

Week 14 marks the final week of what has been an extremely wild (and profitable!) 2014 ACC football season. Let’s go out on a winning note!

Week 14 ACC Card

Pittsburgh – Miami Over 56 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

This is a good match-up for both offenses in a spot that I believe is likely to produce points.  We’ve got a Pittsburgh team who loves to run the ball going against a Miami defense who has struggled at times to stop the run.  Offensively Miami has excelled all season in producing big plays and their going against a Pitt defense who ranks 86th in my explosive plays allowed rankings.  Miami has already clinched bowl eligibility here and coming off the disapointing loss to FSU may be a little flat defensively.  Both defenses struggle in the red zone (111th for Pitt, 69th for Miami) so I expect to see Red Zone trips end in touchdowns.   I made this total 60 so were getting a little extra line value, and the spot set’s up nicely for a wide open game.  Miami 34 Pittsburgh 28.

North Carolina State Wolfpack +6.5 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Taking the points in rivalry games can often be tempting, but I think the situation here warrants a play.  We’ve got a UNC team with a terrible defense coming off of a season-defining blowout win over Duke going against an NCSU team who is well rested following a bye week.  Both teams have already clinched bowl eligibility so I don’t expect either team to play very tightly.  NC State matches up well here as they are a relatively strong running team (#24 by my rankings) and are playing one of the worst defenses in the league against the run (Heels allowing 216 ypg on the ground in ACC play, 2nd to last).  Carolina has also really struggled in preventing big plays (#120 in my explosive play rankings) so State should be able to move the ball quickly here.  I see this as a very tight game and would not be surprised at the outright victory here.  NCSU 31 North Carolina 28

Georgia – Georgia Tech Over 66.5 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

With Missouri’s SEC East clinching win yesterday it’s difficult to imagine that Georgia will be completely focused here, and that’s a pretty dangerous situation to find yourself in against a GT offense that has been very underrated all season long.  This is actually a match-up of two of my top 10 offenses so I expect that both teams should be able to move the football when in possession.  When looking at overs I need to see explosive offenses (both in the top 30 in my numbers) and effective red zone offenses (GT = 46, Georgia = 5).  Both teams rank in the top 40 in both my rushing and passing efficiency numbers so I expect that both will be able to find offense in all facets of the game.  Dawgs 41 Jackets 30