I admit I’ve fallen victim to betting against Florida State once already this season.  The Seminoles put up 35 points in the 2^nd half to beat Louisville, 2 weeks ago.  Fortunately for me I didn’t have to wait long to redeem my pride.  Once again I find myself in a perfect spot to go against Florida State with Miami coming off a bye and seeking revenge of last year’s rout defeat. 

Here are 3 keys to the game in which I like the Canes chances.

Rushing – The Canes are averaging nearly 200 yards rushing per game with Duke Johnson leading the attack with over 1200 rushing yards already this season.  I’m expecting and counting on Al Golden to pound the ground often to establish the passing game and expose the mediocre Seminole secondary.   Miami’s QB Brad Kaaya has really settled down and looked sharp his last 3 games, having zero interceptions.

Defense – Miami is ranked 10th overall in passing defense, allowing only 180 yards per game average through the air.  Their running defense is not bad either, giving up less than 130 yards average per game.  At the end of the day, Miami is 11^th in overall defense. 

Revenge- This angle in my opinion can be overused, but in this situation I believe it will work nicely for Miami.  Al Golden has yet to beat Florida State, and although he nearly did in his first season as head coach, he really hasn’t been close since.  This will be the first time Golden has had a bye prior to playing Florida State.  I expect Golden to have a stellar game plan to reach that inaugural victory.

Similar to Louisville, I’m getting the better defense and running game with the Hurricanes at home.  Although that game didn’t turn out the way I expected, I don’t think lighting will strikes twice, I’ll take my chances with the home dog.

Consider Miami +2.5

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.