Put “Out of the Limelight” Into Your Spotlight 

We’ve come to the point in the season where the bulk of media coverage is focused on the National Championship chase and various conference races. Because the legal betting markets are strongly influenced by public interest (the big TV games generate the most action), a sports bettor’s biggest advantage can come from recognizing what’s been happening in “out of the limelight” games and betting accordingly. 

We had several instances last Saturday of misleading final scores in games hardly anyone was paying attention to. That creates the opportunity for edges going forward if the market reacts to those red herring scores rather than the true flow of the game. 

Remember a few weeks ago when Missouri/Florida qualified for “the most misleading score ever?” This past Saturday’s Southern Miss/UTEP game gave it a run for its money… 

UTEP won 35-14

UTEP was outgained 402-234

UTEP averaged just 3.6 yards-per-play

UTEP scored TD’s on a kickoff return, interception return, and fumble return

UTEP scored one of their offensive TD’s on a 12-yard drive 

UTEP was an 8-point favorite, and covered by two touchdowns. They didn’t even deserve to win straight up based on what was happening at the point of attack. 

Other misleading scores from off-the-radar games… 

• Even though East Carolina had cracked the top 25 of the selection committee’s rankings, details of their 20-10 upset loss to Temple largely stayed out of media coverage throughout the day. East Carolina dominated yardage 428-135, but lost the turnover category 5-0 (all fumbles!). The yards-per-play edge for the Pirates was 5.0 to 2.4, and their third down conversion advantage was 56% to 29%. Temple didn’t “rise to the occasion” in scoring the upset. The 10-point home underdog accepted gifts on a silver platter from a road favorite that apparently has an aversion to cold rain. The media did mention turnovers, but left out the part about game flow domination.

• While American Athletic Conference favorite East Carolina was losing to Temple, virtual co-favorite Central Florida was going through something very similar at Connecticut. These Southern teams weren’t ready to head north in November! Central Florida outgained UCONN 429-327, which worked out to 5.4 to 4.8 on a per-play basis. Third down conversions went UCF’s way to the tune of 38% to 27%. But, it was 8-point home underdog Connecticut scoring the 37-29 victory thanks to a 1-4 edge in the turnover category. At least UCONN’s offense is no longer dormant. But, 4.8 yards per play and 27% on third downs tells you more about the Huskies’ prospects going forward than the raw total of 37 points does.

• News of Kenny Hill’s suspension for Texas A&M made headlines early in the day. But, that story quickly receded once the Aggies had a 21-16 win in the books. What many casual observers didn’t notice was that A&M was outplayed as a 32-point favorite! Louisiana-Monroe won total yardage 347-243, and yards-per-play 4.4 to 3.5. It’s amazing how far A&M has fallen since that big season opening win at South Carolina. Turned out both of those teams were destined to be disappointments. The Aggies shouldn’t have had to sweat the absence of Hill against an outmanned opponent like Louisiana-Monroe. Again, that’s 3.5 yards-per-play at home as 32-point favorites!

• Texas State beat New Mexico State 37-29, despite getting outgained 639-430. That’s minus -209 yards and over 600 yards allowed by NMSU in a victory! How did the Aggies fail to reach 30 points with so many yards? They suffered two turnovers. They failed on a fourth down play. They missed two field goal attempts. NMSU moved the ball at will, but couldn’t figure out what to do with it when it was time to score. Yards per play went 6.4 to 5.9 for the loser, with third down conversions clocking in at 45% to 35%. Don’t reward 7-point favorite Texas State in your ratings because of this final score. They were badly outplayed in most categories.

• Here’s another extreme from that region. New Mexico beat Nevada-Las Vegas 31-28 despite getting outgained 485-306! The host Rebels won yards-per-play 6.0 to 4.5, and third down conversions 60% to 31%. UNLV lost the turnover category 3-1, and missed their only field goal attempt of the night. Should have been a win for the 1-point home favorite UNLV.

• On a day that was loaded with marquee matchups in the Pac 12, the low profile Washington/Colorado game was one you can’t look past. The visiting Huskies scored a 38-23 victory. But, they needed an interception return TD and a punt return TD to make up for a 495-442 yardage disadvantage and an 18% conversion rate on third downs. Not a total steal though because Washington did have a meaningful edge in yards-per-play and rushing yardage. Should have been a toss-up, which the closing line of Washington -2.5 had anticipated.

• The most misleading score of the day from the major conferences occurred after much of the country had gone to bed. That means it largely stayed off the media radar. If you didn’t read details of Arizona State’s late-night 19-16 overtime victory over Utah, be aware that ASU actually won total yardage 444-241, and yards-per-play 5.8 to 3.3. A 2-0 loss in the turnover category helped prevent the 6-point favorite from maximizing the impact of that yardage.

Generally speaking, the teams discussed today will play to their yardage and YPP dynamics rather than the fickleness of turnover differential and non-offensive touchdowns from this point forward. Be sure you’re handicapping based on a fuller picture of what happened in each game rather than just the final score.

See you again next Wednesday.