The column has a new look this week, as I’ve been looking for ways to improve it. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter @Smithers513. 

I have been looking for ways to update my column each week, so with the release of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, fellow SaturdayEdge writer Jimmy Shivers (@JimmyShivers) gave me a good idea to add to my weekly column, and from here on out I will post my weekly top 10 how I see it.

1. Mississippi State- The Bulldogs have impressed me a lot this season, and this is a team that I don’t think has hit its peak yet. As Dak Prescott gains more confidence throwing downfield, this team has a very high ceiling. State I think can be exposed over the top on defense, but I’m searching for a weakness here.
2. Alabama- I would equate what Nick Saban has to do with his teams each year with what a horse trainer and jockey have to do with a Thoroughbred: get the horse a good trip, and let them accelerate to the finish line. I would favor Alabama over any team in the country right now on a neutral field, and would have them No.1 but Miss State’s resume is too strong right now.
3. Oregon- Oregon has been difficult to figure out, but when this team is clicking and has a healthy Oline, they are capable of being very, very good. If the Ducks can stay healthy on the lines of scrimmage, they should find themselves in a very good spot to make the playoff.
4. Ole Miss- I toyed with putting Auburn here, but I give the slight nod to the Rebels, mainly due to the talent of their defense. I love backing teams with a great defense that I know will show each week. The Rebels ceiling will depend on how Bo Wallace plays, which is a scary proposition.
5. Auburn- With the Tigers’ trip to Oxford this week, a virtual elimination game, this could look a lot different next week.
6. Georgia- The best hire last year was by far Jeremy Pruitt as DC for the Bulldogs. When UGA gets Gurley back it’s going to be scary. The Bulldogs I think can be exposed down the field as South Carolina did to them, but fortunately for them they won’t face a strong passing attack on the remaining schedule. Barring a massive slip up, the Bulldogs will be representing the SECEast in Atlanta and have a very good chance to find themselves in the playoff.
7. TCU- It’s hard to argue against what TCU has done. Survive Morgantown this weekend and the Horned Frogs are sitting in a very good position.
8. Florida State- As I write this on Thursday afternoon, FSU has yet to play Louisville. I think they go down tonight.
9. Michigan State- Sparty has had one bad half of football all year. Mark Dantonio is one of the best in the business, and if MSU beats Ohio State next week and wins the Big Ten championship game it will be awfully hard to keep them out of the playoff.
10. LSU- Talent is something you can’t coach, and LSU has a lot of it. The defense is getting better and better, and as these young kids come together they could get scary good. The Tigers have Bama at home next up, and if they are able to muster a win, they’ll be favored in their last two games.

 

Now, let’s get to some plays I like this week.

 

Rice @ FIU +6

One of the more advantageous reasons I like to play games off the radar is the lack of market adjustment. Oddsmakers are not going to consistently change how they deviate spreads on teams in the C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt etc. as they would an Ohio State, Notre Dame. Many seasons if you can find a smaller conference team you really like, you’ll consistently get numbers that are soft. FIU fits the bill for me in this scenario. The Golden Panthers have been generously lined all season, and I think they wrong team is favored in this game. FIU loves to get after the quarterback and blitz, blitz, blitz. They have a very good secondary that they feel comfortable leaving isolated. Rice is a team I have wanted to fade all season given the opportunity and I like it this week. The Owls have had four comfortable wins in a row against bad teams, and I think we can catch them sleeping at just the right time.

 

South Alabama +7 @ UL-Lafayette

I have been on ULL the last couple weeks in spots where I felt they were underpriced based on their talent level. This week the market has caught up to them and I simply think they are laying too many points in a game I expect to be tightly contested. South Alabama has a very good defense and I expect them to make things difficult for ULL. The Ragin Cajuns on the other hand have an unimpressive defense that yields over 32 points a game. I have no problem laying points with ULL when they are outclassing their opponent, but I’m not sure that’s the case this week against a South Alabama team that will give them everything they can handle. If only 6.5’s are available on South Bama I’d buy the hook to 7.

 

Western Michigan @ Miami OH OVER 55.5

I think we get some line value here given the Redhawks played a 10-3 ballgame last week. I expect things to be much different this week. Miami has a bad defense and a good aerial passing game, which plays perfect to this week’s matchup. I think the Line is about right with WMU laying a TD, but I see the over being the play. The Broncos have been solid offensively this year, especially against inferior teams, scoring at least 42 points a game against bad teams. Miami, on the flipside, is allowing over 31 points a game, and I think WMU eclipses that mark with relative ease this week. Miami will be behind in this game and they love to air it out, ranking 26^th nationally in passing YPG.  I see this game being played in the 60’s.

 

Q’n’A

On Twitter I asked what games people had questions on and I’ll get to them here.

From Pat (tnvolfan10) Air Force-Army?

This is a game that falls under the gambling adage: If it looks like a trap, and smells like a trap, it might be a trap. The Knights are 2-5 this year and are coming off a beating against a horrendous Kent State team. Air Force has been pretty solid this year at 5-2, but their best win against Boise State was aided by a preposterous 7 turnovers. Both teams love to run the ball, and play pretty bad defense. The number opened at Air Force -5.5 and is now at -2.5 with 93% of spread bets on AFU. Take that for what it’s worth, but given the line movement and the general nature of rivalry games, I’d probably take Army.

Also from Pat: Navy-ND?

Navy has massively underperformed this year, and with four games left, they have a chance to really improve their season and I think a strong effort happens this week against the Irish. Notre Dame is in a huge sandwich spot against the Midshipmen, coming off the deflating loss against Florida State and a season defining trip to Arizona State next week. Navy took Notre Dame to the brink last season and if Notre Dame wants to get a win they’ll have to grind one out in my opinion. I would take the points with Navy.

Cheap Seats (jandbdupree) Western Michigan/ Miami OH

As I covered above, I like the over in this game.

Thanks for the questions and keep ‘em coming for next week!

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