18-6 +11.04 units

Went 2-0 on another small card in the ACC last week, I’ve really done well this season by limiting the plays posted here and focusing on just a few games each week.   I usually play a larger card than what is posted here, and for anyone interested my full card can be found on my twitter feed, posted here.  Onto Week 10!

YTD Summary:

Week 10 ACC Plays

Louisville – Florida State Under 50.5 -105 Risking 0.525 units to win 0.5 units L

For what it’s worth, I played Louisville +7 on Sunday as soon as I saw the line, and played the under 52 here as soon as I saw the total.  This is a very good spot to continue to fade an overvalued Florida State team (1-6 ATS) while getting a touchdown at home with an elite defense (currently ranked as my number one defense in BOTH passing and rushing efficiency).  Those numbers are a little lopsided as Louisville hasn’t exactly played a murderer’s row of great offenses, but the point remains that this is a very stout defensive unit (they were top 5 last season as well) who is playing an FSU offense that has underachieved badly this year relative to expectations (25th ranked passing attack, but only 68th ranked rushing game).  I made the line here FSU -3 so I can’t strongly advocate for a play on Louisville at the current number, but I do think that  they are well positioned to win outright.

A big part of the Seminoles relative offensive struggles (they rank 40th in yards per play & first downs / game) this year has been their struggles in the offensive line.   They’ve surprisingly struggled to generate push up front this season and have frequently been outplayed at the offensive line of scrimmage (70th in sack percentage, 81st in tackle for loss %).  Going against a Louisville defense that has ranked  6th & 4th nationally in those two statistics suggests to me that FSU is going to generally struggle to turn 1st and 10 into 2nd & medium and then 3rd and short, which should lead to lots of stall drives and empty possessions.  Louisville is also in the top 10 in my defensive explosive plays rankings, so they should be able to largely prevent FSU from picking up yardage in big chunks as well.

Louisville is far from an offensive juggernaut this season, though you could argue with the return of DeVante Parker that this is the healthiest that the Cardinals have been on that side of the ball all season.  Louisville has still really struggled overall offensively this year, ranking only 92nd in my passing efficiency numbers and 112th in my rankings of run ability.   FSU doesn’t have the dominant defensive unit that they had last season, but  they do match up against well up front against a Louisville offense that ranks 112th in yards per play and 111th in first downs a game.  Bobby Petrino has generally approached their offensive strategy pretty conservatively this year as the Cardinals have only thrown the ball 45% of the time this season (76th nationally), and I expect him to attempt to rely on his defense yet again and not put too much pressure on QB Will Gardner, who has had several games where he struggled with decision making and was guilty of forcing passes into coverage.  I believe that Louisville comes out tonight looking to play a field position type of game.

Overall this is easily the most hostile crowd that FSU has seen this year, and adding into it it’s a Halloween night game (with booze sold in the stadium and the Cards decked out in gimmicky uniforms) will only add to the intensity of the Louisville crowd.  At this point we have to accept this Florida State team for what it is; an extremely talented team who is struggling to live up to their expectations of a year ago.  Everything about this match-up points to a very close game that will be played very tightly between two excellent coaches and two teams with everything (in the ACC at least) to play for.  I give both defenses large advantages in this match-up, and the situation calls for a small under play in a game that I capped at 45.  This should be a helluva football game, and I’ve got it as Florida State 24, Louisville 21

Boston College Eagles +3.5 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I think were getting some good line value on this game, I made it a PK.  The bottom line is that this is a Virginia Tech team that is in complete disarray right now and really needs a game where everything goes their way to start to right the ship.  The problem is that they are facing a very disciplined and well coached team who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes (12th in penalty yardage allowed, 16th in turnovers lost) and plays very solid, fundamental football.  Essentially, Steve Adazzio has turned BC into his version of what Virginia Tech used to be in the 90’s and 2000’s.

You could write a long article on what is wrong at VT for Frank Beamer but it essentially comes down to a couple of things; 1) they aren’t dominant on Defense or Special Teams like they were in the past 2) they have a terrible offense that doesn’t create many big plays  (119th in my big play rankings) 3) they are a very undisciplined football team (116th in penalties a game).  When you don’t have great playmakers and you do a lot of sloppy things like turn the ball over (91st in turnover margin) and commit penalties it’s very difficult to consistently move the football and sustain drives that generate points.  Virginia Tech ranks 100th and 101st in my pass and run efficiency rankings, and I expect them to struggle to move the football against a stingy BC defense (14th in points per game allowed, 28th in yards per play allowed)  Boston College doesn’t come at you with a very complicated offense; they love to run the football (though they do find some very creative ways to use QB Tyler Murphy in the run game).  Virginia Tech has struggled up front against the run this year, ranking 72nd in opponent yards per carry and has often been gashed for big plays on the ground (they rank 126th nationally in 20+ rushing yard plays allowed, a stat that BC’s offense ranks in the top 10).

I just can’t lay points against quality opposition with this Hokies team right now, they are struggling all over the field right now and just don’t have the explosive playmakers or the strength on the lines to expect to win against a very physical Boston team.  In what figures to be a very low scoring game, getting more than a field goal with the better football team playing with confidence is an excellent proposition.  Eagles 24 Hokies 20

Good luck guys!