YTD 16-6 + 10.31 units

After a two week break from posting plays here due to a couple of family issues, I now have some time to get back to being able to share my ACC plays here.  As always, my full card can be found on twitter here.

Week 9 in the ACC is usually around the point where we start to see some clarity between who is good and who isn’t.  This year it looks like we have a cluster of 4 very good teams in the ACC Atlantic (FSU, Clemson, Louisville & even Boston College) while the ACC Coastal division is merely a cluster.  The dream of having all 7 Coastal teams finish 4-4 lives for another week.

Season Summary:

Week 9 Selections

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I played this game at +3.5 earlier in the week.  I feel like this game is mis-priced a bit following Pittsburgh’s win over a reeling Virginia Tech team and Georgia Tech losing late to a desperate UNC team.  But anything at 3 or better is borderline silly in my opinion as my numbers actually make Pittsburgh a small underdog in this spot.

Georgia Tech’s defense has been an absolute weakness this season but they are going against a Pittsburgh offense that has really struggled at times to put points on the board.  Since C Artie Rowell went down the Panthers have only put up 20, 10, 19 & 24 points in their last 4 games and have unsurprisingly gone 1-3 over that stretch.  The Panthers are a poor passing team (101st in my passing efficiency numbers, 110th in passing play %) so I think GT gets a bit of relief this week in that they can focus much more on stopping the run. Pittsburgh does run out of several different looks, and has done a nice job of mixing QB Chad Voytik in with the human bowling ball, James Connor.

One of the things that separates this version of the Yellow Jackets from previous iterations is that they have a much more efficient passing attack to go with their ever-present flex offense.  Justin Thomas (7.5 YPA, 8-3 TD INT ratio) has proven that he has the ability to make teams pay with both his arm and his feet this season, and they should be able to hit some big plays against a Pittsburgh defense that has impressive stats but has yet to face an offense that ranks in the top 70 nationally in offensive points per game vs FBS competition.

We get two hungry teams this week, but I think the Jackets are the better team who have faced the more daunting schedule and present more match-up problems for a largely untested Pittsburgh defense.  I think the Jackets win outright today.  Jackets 34, Panters 21

Wake Forest Demon Deacons +14 -108 Risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit

This is one of those games where you have to hold your nose as you bet it, but at 2 TD’s we are getting a small bit of line value with the home dog.  The Deacons are the worst offense in the country to this point in the season (ranked #127 in my passing efficiency rankings, & #128 in my rushing efficiency rankings) but they are going against a Boston College team that stylistically plays into their hands.  The Eagles run the ball more than almost anyone in the country (8th nationally in run play %).  While Wake isn’t really good at anything, their run defense is one of their biggest strengths.  Wake Forest is severely out-manned most weeks all over the field, so I always try to look for match-ups where the opposition also has a relatively lower class of athlete.  We also catch the Eagles off a big effort at home last week where they just came up short against Clemson, so it would make sense to see them come out a little flat and overlook this Demon Deacon squad.  I expect a low scoring game, field position type of game where Wake is able to hang close without every really threatening to win.  Boston 21 Wake 14