Unfortunately real world responsibilities have kept me from posting my weekly picks until the last minute.  Last week saw our first losing week of the season (1-2 -0.7 units).  We have a very nice card in the ACC this week that should present some good opportunities to generate some extra revenue for our bankroll.  Unfortunately I was not able to post my Louisville-Syracuse Under winner in this thread, but it is nice to know that my reads continue to be dialed in.  Onto Week 6!

Week 6 ACC Card:

North Carolina Tar Heels Moneyline +120 Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 units

On paper this is an ugly bet, but I believe that were buying low on this UNC team.  They’ve had a rough couple of weeks defensively (giving up 70 to ECU, 50 to Clemson) that have greatly diminished their value to most of the betting public, but this week they have a match-up that is a completely different challenge.  While the quick, up-tempo offenses of Clemson and ECU were obviously serious issues for this UNC team on the edges, this week they face a Hokie team that is much more limited offensively and won’t be able to get into space nearly as easily as the Tar Heels recent opponents.  Virginia Tech comes into this game ranking just 88th nationally in yards per play and as a unit they have really struggled to consistently move the football.  I believe that it also hurts this Virginia Tech team that they have played three straight home games and haven’t played outside of Lane Stadium since the big upset win over Ohio State.  After becoming nationally recognized for the first time in a couple of seasons off of the Ohio State win, Virginia Tech has essentially been flat in three consecutive games.  Whats to make me believe that this team gets up this week to travel to UNC to play a Carolina team that has been a laughing stock the last couple of weeks? While I’m not convinced that Larry Fedora is a good fit at UNC, I do believe that this team is in a good spot to bounce back today against a VT defense that has definately taken a step back this season.  North Carolina gets it done today in Chapel Hill.  Heels 28, Hokies 24

Florida State Seminoles -39 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

After a relatively rough start to the season (by the standard they set last year, anyways) Wake Forest comes to town at the perfect time for FSU to exercise some demons and to get back to their blowout ways.  Wake Forest is a great match-up for FSU to build some more confidence in a couple of ways; it’s an anemic offense (3.12 yards per play, 126th nationally) who are also one dimensional (15th highest pass play % in the country).  I believe that Florida State will be able to consistently pin their ears back and look to pressure John Wolford without having to pay anything other than cursory respect to the ground game.  I expect this to lead to rushed decisions for the young quarterback, which should result in turnovers and good field position for FSU.  Wake hasn’t scored in their last 2 visits here (combined score 83-0) and I don’t expect this ineffective group to top double digits unless it’s in garbage time.

After a sluggish start last week, we saw that the big play potential is very much still alive in this FSU offense.  The Seminoles racked up 49 points over the final 3 quarters and if that game had been another 5 minutes it was likely a 20+ point win for the Noles.  I believe that all the melodrama has finally settled down around Jameis Winston, and they can get back to focusing on playing well on the field.  The Wake D has some decent stats but you also have to consider that they have played a couple of weak offenses (Monroe, Army) and have lucked into a couple of injured opponent quarterbacks (Louisville & Utah State both had QB injuries as major factors in their non-covers).  Seeing Oregon get knocked off the other night will only lead to FSU to be even more focused today, and I think it gets ugly.  Florida State 56, Wake 7

Georgia Tech -Yellow Jackets -2 Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Paul Johnson off a bye vs Al Golden in a flat spot.  Another chance to buy low on Justin Thomas and to bet on their ability to work over a Miami defense that is weakest against the run and could struggle today to play assignment football.  Laying less than a FG at home.  Fading Brad Kaaya on the road.  Yes to all of these please.  Georgia Tech 34 Miami 24

Other leans that didn’t make the card:

Clemson -14

Pitt +5

As always, follow along on twitter for the full card.

Good luck guys!