YTD – 12-12 -$97

Money bet Week #1 = $1,031

Bankroll YTD = $934

Money risked YTD = $6,015

Profit/Loss = $-97

Return on Total Money Risked  = -1.6%

Return on Initial Bankroll = -9.4%

NOTE: I post opener on Twitter on Sunday without writeup so please follow my twitter account @jimmysingh9.  I have had closing line value of close to 2 points on all plays posted on average so please follow and look for plays around Sunday evening. I am not a huge advocator of closing line value but the majority of plays that I post move in my favour, so if you wait, you will not be able to get them. Most lines are available at BetOnline and 5dimes, two reputable sportsbooks.

 

Losing week last week. went from a winner to a loser from the South Carolina collapse at the end of the 4th vs Mizzou. Feel much better about this week. If you have been following me exactly, you may need to increase your bankroll this week to get all the games in. I have a big play in here.  Let’s go!

 

Auburn -7 (buy the 1/2 pt) vs LSU risking $665 to win $500(play only 7 or under)

If you read my initial post, this is my max wager. I love this game. I have it lined around 10 pts and the reason I bought 1/2 a pt was for risk adjustment. I don’t think LSU is a very good football this year. They have showed in the 2 games vs good competition that they are not the same LSU teams of past. Wiscy was pounding LSU until they uncharacteristically melted down, stopped giving their Heisman RB the ball and LSU made a late comeback and shaved perception. But if they didnt make that comeback, the writing was Wiscy dominates LSU. Then Miss St goes to Death Valley at night and just dominates LSU at every facet. I know this Miss St is for real this year but when do you see LSU get dominated like that at home at night? Tim Tebow couldn’t do that, Saban doesn’t dominate like that either. Now they are only TD dogs on the road to Auburn??? Doesn’t make sense. This Auburn team had trouble up at KState two weeks ago but Bill Synder can coach and that KState was fundamentally sound vs Malzhan’s attack however there are not many teams that can do that. If it was about talent, then yes LSU has a chance but they aren’t that fundamentally sound football team that KState was and they will need that to slow down Auburn. Auburn will also get their first chance to show that the KState game was a bad performance and you should see an A game from Auburn here.  I have Auburn winning easy here.

Fresno St -1 vs San Diego St FRIDAY risking $428 to win $400(play up to -3)

We have some value on Fresno St. There are a couple of factors working for us. The perception of Fresno St took a big hit to start the year. There was alot of talk going about how Fresno St would bounce back from losing their star QB Derek Carr to the NFL and initally they got thumped 3 straight games. The perception went from ? to this team isn’t very good and won’t be a player to win any titles. That could be true but we don’t need to them to win titles here, we just need them to win a home game in primetime on a Friday vs an average team. Let’s add to it that this average team lost their starting QB and are starting a true freshman that hasn’t thrown a pass in college. Let’s add that they lost their defensive captain/MLB to injury last week.  I think those are great signs.  In addition, those 3 losses? they came to USC, Utah and Nebraska, not exactly the same level their opponent is playing at. Look for Fresno to get a win at home here.

 

Texas +15 vs Baylor risking $214 to win $200(play until 14)

this is a don’t watch the game but just look at the outcome type game for me. I don’t really have much in terms of advantage matchups for Texas vs Baylor but Texas has never been this big of a dog at home in a long time if ever. I just think Charlie Strong will have his defense working here to slow Baylor down a bit and Texas might be able to kill some clock power running the footbal and Swoopes has started to play better as the year progressed. I will say for the other side that Art Briles would probably like to run up the score on Texas if he can to further emphasis the power change in Texas but hopefully it is a tight game.

 

Virginia -5 vs Pitt risking $214 to win $200(play till 6)

going back to the well with a team that has gotten me 3 covers this year in UVA. I really liked this team preseason and they have shown up for me. Their offense is executing well and I like the swagger they have on defense as well some big time playmakers emerging for them. Everytime I see Pitt play, I am not totally impressed by them.  The BC game was the game that got them alot of impression and everyone loves their running game led by RB Connor. I have found Pitt to be a two trick pony. Connor and WR Boyd are their two big weapons and I think Virginia has the CB’s to slow down Boyd without help and allow the defense to shut down Pitt’s running game. I see Virginia putting up enough points vs an average Pitt defense to pull away late in this one.

Vanderbilt +33.5 at Georgia risking $160.50 to win$150(play till 32)

another don’t watch check the final score game. Vandy has started to play better as the season progressed. They aren’t gonna win many games but I am hoping that they can keep within the score here. With a revenge game on deck for Georgia. I think Richt will play his guys enough and let the backups finish out earlier than expected here. I’m hoping Vandy has a couple scores in here to keep within the #

 

Indiana -12 vs North Texas risking $214 to win $200(up to 13)

this game reminds me of La Tech at UNT where La Tech offense ended up being too much for UNT and getting up early. After that it forced UNT offense to play from behind which they can’t. I obviously have Indiana having a much better offense in comparision to La Tech and this time UNT is on the road. Indiana also has had trouble with dynamic offenses(Maryland, BG etc) I see Indiana pulling away in the 2nd qtr and UNT making some mistakes trying to comeback and not having the offense to get a backdoor here. Indiana wins easy.

 

Bowling Green -3 vs Buffalo risking $224 to win $200(play only at 3 or under)

 

For some reason I keep going back to Bowling Green and they haven’t done me that much good but I see value in only a FG favourite at home vs UB. The Bowling Green offense is still dynamic enough to score alot of points vs MAC competition. Buffalo is a funny team. They have some pieces that are very good but they haven’t been able to put it together. They have given up alot of points in every game minus Norfolk St and I don’t see them slowing down BG. Being on the road should give BG some edge on the other side of the ball and I see value in giving only a FG here.