Jimmyshivers Week 3 ACC Thread

 

Aside from Virginia Tech earning a shocking W in Columbus, it was not a huge week nationally for the ACC. Sometimes it’s best in the early weeks just to stay out of the spotlight (Big Ten!) and grind out results.  That’s exactly what the rest of the league did in Week 2, with all 11 ACC teams who played a non-conference game earning a Win.

On the gambling front, it was also a solid week here.  We went 2-1 with our Saturday Edge selections, with a loss on the BC-Pitt under by a ½ point and an easy win in the Old Dominion – NC State Over.  The deciding game was the late cover for Georgia Tech against Tulane, which went in our favor as GT played smothering defense in the 2^nd half.

This is an intriguing card in the ACC this week as we catch some really interesting spots with a couple of teams around the league. I made a couple of plays earlier in the week, if I got different numbers I will post them in the write-ups.  Let’s see if we can’t put together a third consecutive winning week to start the season.

YTD	7	2	4.40	77.78%
Wins	Losses	Units	Win%
NCAAF Week 1	5	1	3.45*	83.33%
NCAAF Week 2	2	1	0.95	66.67%
NCAAF Week 3	0	0	0.00

 

*note:  In Week 2 I posted that I was 5-1 +4.51 units in week 1, but a spreadsheet error had incorrectly calculated the profit.  I have adjusted the number this week

Week 3 ACC Plays:

East Carolina Pirates +10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Played this one at 11, like ECU down to +8.  Obvious letdown spot here for the Hokies, coming off their biggest win in forever and getting patted on the back all week both in Blacksburg and in the National Media.  But is VT really back?  Michael Brewer showed on Saturday night that he is a nice upgrade over Logan Thomas, but how does he fare with the spotlight on him this week?

Backing a dog in a good spot is only half the equation, to make this play you have to believe that the underdog can compete for 60 minutes.  East Carolina more than fits that bill, this is a really dangerous offense (they outgained and out first-downed South Carolina last week) who will come into this game with a ton of confidence, as they played VT to the wire last season in a 5 point loss in Greenville.  In betting against this VT team you know going in that your facing one of the top secondaries in the country, but Shane Carden is an excellent quarterback who should be able to keep the ECU offense moving the ball.  Carden pressed last weekend and made a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes against South Carolina, but I’m confident that he will look better this week.  It’s always an added bonus to have an upper level quarterback when you’re getting double-digit points, as the potential to backdoor cover the spread with garbage passing yards is always in play.

Bottom line for me is that I still don’t believe that VT has elite talent at this point at most of the skill positions to be able to consistently break big plays against this ECU team.  Ruffin McNeil has done a tremendous job rebuilding this ECU team that lost 13 starters, and I believe that they match up very well on the edges.  In betting double digit favorites you need to be confident that they can move the football, but this is most of the same group that only ran for 1.6 yards per carry in the match-up last year.Virginia Tech is absolutely on upset alert this week, and  if they don’t come out focused they have a great shot at squandering much of the enthusiasm that they earned with the big upset last week.  Hokies 21 Pirates 17

 

Ran out of time for rest of the write-ups.  Also like these:

Utah State Aggies -15 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I played this at 14, would play up to 16. I can’t resist fading Wake Forest making a cross-country trip this week, even with the Aggies being a little banged up after losing possibly their best receiver for the season.  I just don’t see how Wake is ready to be competitive with talented, well coached ball clubs like Utah State yet.  The Deacs did pick up a win last week vs Gardner-Webb but still couldn’t run the football, being held to 2.48 rushing yards vs an inferior opponent.  The Aggies took a beating on national TV a few weeks ago to Tennessee and I think it’s giving us a little line value.    My preseason line was -18, but this looks like a tough spot for Wake who may be worse than we thought and a good chance for a young Utah State team to work out some of the kinks.  Utah State 34 Wake Forest 10

North Carolina State Wolfpack -1.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Wolfpack 0-2 ATS and USF played a “close” game last week where they benefitted from 6 turnovers but got manhandled at home is keeping this line under a score, but I don’t see how USF matches up at all.  The Bulls just don’t have any real playmakers at this point under Willie Taggert, and will struggle defensively to contain a Wolfpack offense that really started to click under new QB Jacoby Brissett last week.  State pulls away here in the 2^nd half as USF will struggle to wear down defensively.  Pack 34 USF 20

Virginia Cavaliers +7 (-120) Risking 0.9 units to win 0.75 units

Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 1H  (-110) Risking 0.825 units to win 0.75 units

Virginia Cavaliers Moneline +215 Risking 0.25 units to win 0.5375 units

Good spot to back what still looks like an undervalued UVA team facing a first year starting QB making his first start on the road.  I like the talent level on this UVA roster but I was worried that they might quit on their coach who has been on the hot seat for over a year.  Early returns are very positive and I really like what I’ve seen from this team.  DC Jon Tenuta loves to dial up exotic blitz packages and will look to pressure Gardner all game long.  Biggest takeaway here is that the books are giving us a full score at home with a team that returns a lot more experience and has roughly equivalent talent levels (especially with Parker still sidelined for LOU).  I smell an upset..  Virginia 24 Louisville 17

Miami Hurricanes -16 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Might look like a look-ahead game for the ‘Canes here with Nebraska on deck but I think this is a team that needs to get some things right before focusing on that big road game next week.  Look for Miami to pile it on if there able to as they focus on getting reps for Kaaya and to build his confidence.  Arkansas St defense is pretty beat up, and I made this number much higher in my power rankings.  I’m going to take a shot that ASU doesn’t hang tight with a more talented opponent for a second consecutive week. Miami 43 ASU 16.

 

I also played Georgia Southern +21.5 but that number is long gone, and I would not play it at +17.  All of my plays this week are posted on my twitter feed as usual.  Good luck guys!