Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Super Bowl XLVII is shaping up on paper to be one of the best Super Bowls of recent memory. Vegas seems to think so as well, with a consensus line of Denver -2.5 currently widely available at multiple major sports books. The small point spread is tied with Super Bowl XLVI that featured the New England Patriots and New York Giants as the smallest point spread in the last 31 years, which we can recall was an excellent game.

Inside the Numbers

Both the Seahawks and Broncos were both big money makers for bettors this year. The Seahawks were 12-6 against the spread this year, and the Broncos were 11-7. Amazingly, in the 36 total games played between these two teams this year, the Broncos were favored in every game, and the Seahawks were favored in all but one game, a 19-17 loss at San Francisco, but the Seahawks got bettors to the window covering the 2.5 point spread as underdogs.

As far as totals go, in the Seahawks 18 games played this season, the under hit 12 times. In those 12 games that Seattle games went under the total, Seattle won the game straight up 10 times. In the six games the Seahawks played that went over the total, they were 5-1 straight up.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, in the 18 Broncos games this season, the total went over 11 times. In the 11 games that went over the total, the Broncos were 10-1 straight up, and 5-2 straight up in games that went under the total.

Matchups

Much of the hype coming into this game has been how the league’s #1 ranked offense will fair against the league’s #1 defense. It is rare that we get a matchup in the Super Bowl that features the league’s top two units going head to head, which certainly has played into the number being less than a field goal.

Denver Offense vs Seattle Defense

We know that Denver boosts the best passing offense and Seattle the best passing defense. Seattle plays an aggressive defense, pressing opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, trying to disrupt their breaks with their physical corners. Seattle’s defensive unit is extremely cohesive, and feeds off each portion of the unit. Seattle’s tremendous secondary allows their pass rush more time to get after the quarterback. Seattle was 5^th in the league in sacks this season, a stat I have not seen much of this week.

But, Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning and with a win could cement his status as the greatest of all-time. The Broncos broke an NFL record with points scored this season, and Manning had the greatest statistical season we have ever seen from a quarterback. But, the Broncos also only faced two top 10 passing defenses this year, the Texans in Week 16 when Houston was a mess, and the Giants in week 2, when Manning threw for 307 yards, below his average of 342 yards per game. Seattle has only faced one top 10 passing offense this season, a 33-10 win at Atlanta. It will be interesting to see how Peyton and the Broncos face off against the Seahawks vaunted secondary, with both units facing their stiffest test of the season.

Seattle Offense vs Denver Defense

Predictably, most of the talk in the media has been directed at the titanic matchup between the Broncos offense and the Seahawk defense, and deservedly so, but I think there is just as intriguing of a matchup between Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense. Every cliché in the world has been thrown at Russell Wilson as a game manager. but, let’s not get confused here. Russell Wilson is labeled a “game manager” because he is simply not asked to throw 30 to 40 times a game for the Seahawks to be successful. The Seahawks recipe has clearly worked out for them. Seattle is one of the few teams in the league that is committed to the run, featuring Marshawn Lynch who was second in rushing attempts this year, and sixth in rushing yards.

Breaking down the numbers on Russell Wilson, he was 16^th in the league this year in total passing yards, 19^th in completions, 12^th in completion percentage, and only 22^nd in attempts. In numbers that I think matter, Wilson ranked 3^rd in the NFL in yards per completion, two spots ahead of his foe Peyton Manning. In yards per attempt, Wilson ranks 4^th, only .06 yards behind Manning, who ranks 3^rd. The numbers above clearly illustrate that although he may not be asked to do much, Wilson comes through when his team is needed.

Statistically, Denver ranks 22^nd in total points allowed, 27^th in passing defense, 19^th in yards per game allowed, and 8th in rushing defense. Much has been paid to Denver’s run defense being strong and being able to neutralize Seattle’s strength, which is running the football. Although Denver ranks 7^th in rushing defense, allowing 101 yards per game, the numbers are a bit misleading. In Denver’s three losses, they gave up an average of 138 yards per game rushing. They also were T-23^rd in rushing touchdowns allowed this season, which could be a huge part of this game if Seattle is able to move the ball into the red zone. Also, Denver played a large number of their games ahead from a comfortable margin, which forces teams to abandon the run, which is backed by the Broncos ranking 25^th in the league in total rushing attempts against. Russell Wilson has the ability to make things happen with his legs, ranking 3^rd among QB’s in rushing yards this season, behind league leader Cam Newton by only 48 yards.

Books on the Big Stage

Breaking down the numbers is important when looking at handicapping any game, but in the Super Bowl, it is downright naïve to not consider the position of the Sports Books. The Super Bowl is far and away the most bet event of the year for the folks out in Vegas, and don’t think for a second that they are going to be underprepared. For most of the season, there was a Super Bowl line available of the NFC being favored between 1 and 3 points against the AFC. Both the Seahawks and Broncos were both the favorites in their respective conferences all season, meaning if we put two and two together, we can deduce that the Seahawks should have been a small favorite against Denver, and the Seahawks did open -1, but a flurry of Denver money pushed the spread to where it currently sits at Denver -2.5.

The betting public has been all over Manning and the Broncos, with Denver currently receiving 71% of all spread bets, according to VegasInsider.com. One of the biggest misnomers in the betting industry is that a point spread is designed to garner equal action on both sides. While sometimes true, let’s not be foolish. Books are in the business of making money, and there is a reason these establishments in the desert are open 24/7/365. The books are not afraid to take a stance, and the Super Bowl line, more than any other point spread, is created with the recreational better in mind. In fact, in the last 23 years, they books have beaten the public with a 21-2 record, according to RJ Bell.

The Pick

Enough of the analysis, let’s make a pick. If you could not tell from my statistical presentations and numbers above, I like the Seahawks +2.5. My score prediction is 20-16 Seattle over Denver. Good luck to all, and enjoy what I expect to be a great game.

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