It was another Saturday of solid results last week, as Week 13 saw us finally put together back-to-back winning weeks.  It has been a season of tough breaks and we were dealt another one last week when Maryland melted down late and allowed Boston to come back and pull out a victory.  It was still a winning week, but it was a tough break as we look to get both over .500 and into the black as the season draws to a close.

Rivalry week is traditionally a week where we have to adjust our handicapping strategies, teams at the end of the season tend to see a lot of variation in how they play versus their statistical profiles.  Stats are still important, but in my opinion you have to work a bit harder to find each teams mentality as well as to determine how much each team cares about what is at stake.

YTD: 19-25 – 21.28 units

	Wins	Loses	Units
NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.50
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.70
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63
NCAAF Week 7	1	1	-0.30
NCAAF Week 8	4	2	5.45
NCAAF Week 9	0	4	-13.25
NCAAF Week 10	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 11	4	3	1.90
NCAAF Week 12	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 13	3	2	2.21

 

Week 14 Plays:

2 units — Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 +115

2 units — Pittsburgh Panthers +3 -115

1 unit — Pittsburgh Panthers ML +125 

3 units — East Carolina Pirates +3.5 -110

1 unit — East Carolina Pirates ML +150 

3 units — Boston College Eagles -2.5 -110

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels -5 -110

2 units — North Carolina State Wolfpack ML +135

2 units — Clemson Tigers +3 Even

4 units — Alabama Crimson Tide -12 +103 

Week 14 Plays w/ Write-ups:

2 units — Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 +115

I sold half a point here with Nebraska to eliminate the juice and get a nice plus money return on the home chalk.  This game features two teams who really like to run the football (both in the top 30 in run play %), with the difference being that one of these teams is much more proficient at it than the other.  Iowa is my 90th ranked run game, while Nebraska ranks 26th.  The big issue that Iowa has in my numbers is that they don’t especially generate very many explosive plays in the ground game (0nly two carries for 30+ yards this year) and can struggle to move the football against a Nebraska defense that is very stingy on 3rd downs (5th nationally in 3rd down conversion %).  I think Iowa struggles to move the football today, and an improving Nebraska defense (kept each of last 4 opponents under 400 yards) has a good chance at limiting a one-dimensional Hawkeye offense.

Stylistically, this is a classic Big Ten match-up between two teams who love to win with steady rushing attacks and solid defenses.  The advantage here is with what I have as the better running game playing at home against a short number.  Nebraska gets a 9th win to cap another winning season that disapoints their fan base.  Huskers 27 Hawkeyes 17

2 units — Pittsburgh Panthers +3 -115

1 unit — Pittsburgh Panthers ML +125 

I just feel like the wrong team is favored here in Pittsburgh, with this Miami team nose-diving down the stretch after the Florida State loss and a couple of key offensive injuries that completely changed the capabilities of their offense.

The Hurricanes have relied on a strong and explosive running game this season to set up their passing attack, but since Duke Johnson went down the Hurricanes have really struggled to run the ball.  The Canes averaged 5.7 yards per carry through October, but when Duke got hurt (and the schedule got tougher, to be fair) the Canes have only run for 3.62 yards per carry over the last 4 games.  Without a strong running game, they have a much time creating space in the passing game for Stephen Morris to effectively throw the ball.  Morris isn’t a very accurate quarterback and he sometimes makes really puzzling decisions when trying to fit the ball into tight windows.

These are two pass-happy offenses (79th and 83rd in run play %) but by my numbers we have both the better passing attack and passing defense with the home underdog here.  Add into that the struggling form of Miami coming down the stretch (0-6 ATS last six, 1-4 SU) and Pittsburgh at + money to win has a ton of value.  I’ve been fading this Miami team coming down the stretch, and don’t see any reason to quit now.  Panthers 34 Canes 31

3 units — East Carolina Pirates +3.5 -110

1 unit — East Carolina Pirates ML +150 

 I’m a huge fan of this ECU team, they are the best team in the Tar Heel state and have very quietly been an extremely strong squad this season.  In what is the C-USA game of the year, I think they match up very well with this Marshall team that has put up big numbers against bad teams but has played one of the softest schedules in the country (SOS ranking is 113).  Marshall hasn’t played a team with a winning record in over a month, and has only covered this short number against one team with a winning record all season (6-5 UTSA back in early October).  Meanwhile ECU has played a tougher schedule and covered this number in every game this season but 1 (a 15-10 loss to VT that featured a late safety to go over this number).

One of Marshall’s best weapons this year has been a sneaky-good running game, but I see them having a lot of trouble getting that going here against a ECU run D that is my 5th ranked run defense (effeciency-wise).  I feel like ECU can force Cato to throw it to move the football, which he has done this year but hasn’t had to face many defenses with the ability of this ECU group (ECU ranks in both the top 25 in my QB defense & WR defense ratings).  Marshall has great defensive numbers, but you could argue that they haven’t seen a really good passing offense all season long.

In a game that will decide who plays for the C-USA title, I feel really good getting more than a FG with the more battle-tested team that I feel matches up very well.  For my money Carden is a better passer than Cato, and East Carolina has the better defense.  I think the Pirates go into West Virginia and pull off the upset.  Pirates 34 Herd 28

3 units — Boston College Eagles -2.5 -110

This one is as simple for me as backing the better team in better form that matches up pretty well.  Both of these teams are extremely dependant on their running games for offensive success (both run the ball more than 60% of the time) but Boston College has a solid match-up here: the Eagles are my 8th ranked run game and are going against my 64th ranked run D.  The Orange are also solid running the ball (my 31st ranked run game) but are facing what has been a pretty solid BC front 7 (#26 ranked run D).

The Eagles come into this game on a really nice run to close out the season, winning their last 4 games and quietly putting Steve Addazio into the running for ACC Coach of the Year (he won’t win, but he deserves consideration).  The Eagles have relied heavily on Andre Williams down the stretch, and he should continue to have success here against an Orange defense that struggles against good running teams (Clemson, GT & FSU all blasted them on the ground).  BC doesn’t have great athletes but they have a really strong offensive line that gets good push up front and has done well against the teams they’ve faced this year with less depth up front.

This Boston College team is one of the fun teams to watch in college football.  They are well-coached and playing with a ton of confidence as their system is getting stronger as the season wears on.  Their facing a Syracuse team this week that isn’t particularly physical, and they should be able to wear them down here.  I think this game also has a solid shot of going under the total, as Syracuse is really bad offensively and doesn’t match-up well here.  Eagles 24 Orange 10