Due to a pair of deaths in my family, I refrained from posting last weeks plays.  I still wound up playing a few games and had an OK week, but my head wasn’t in any kind of place to put together write-ups.  It’s been a really weird year for me this year, in that I’ve had multiple major life events occur that have prevented me from being able to get a thread posted.  I’m looking forward to continuing my winning ways of Week 11, and continuing to move further in my quest to get back to profitability.  As always, this is not my complete card (that can be found on my twitter feed).  Good luck this week!

YTD: 16-23 -23.49 units

Week 13 Plays:

2 units — Navy Midshipmen ML +115

3 units — Maryland Terrapins ML -103

2 units — Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 EV

3 units — Oklahoma St Cowboys  +8.5 -110

2 units — East Carolina Pirates -5.5

Week 13 Plays with write-ups:

 2 units — Navy Midshipmen ML +115

I usually refrain from posting plays here on the weekday NCAA games unless they are in the ACC, but there is a lot to like in my opinion to warrant a play and a write-up on Navy here.  We get a game that lines up really nicely for Navy, they have some line value (all 3 of my power rankings have them as a favorite here), they match-up well (my #11th most effecient run game vs my #108th effecient run D) and are a team in much better form (Navy has won 3 of 4, SJST has lost their last two).  Navy is in a pretty good spot as well, they are about to get two weeks off before their bowl game while SJST has a big game vs their undefeated rival Fresno State.

San Jose State has a record that is a little bit deceiving; they are 5-5 but 4-1 in games decided by 10 points or less (their other losses are by 21, 19, 28 & 22).  The Spartans have only beaten one team who will go bowling this season (UNLV a few weeks ago), and weren’t competitive in any of their other match-ups.  Navy has actually played a tougher schedule this year and have fared really well in games where their QB Reynolds has been healthy.

San Jose State shut Navy out last year, but these are two teams who look drastically different than the last time they met.  The Spartans have my #105 ranked defense overall and have really struggled versus the run (5.16 ypc allowed to FBS teams).  The Spartans do have a strong advantage in the passing game (a big part of the reason why I’m keeping this play small) but Navy has done a really good job in preventing big plays through the air (my #9 ranked passing defense in relation to explosion plays).  I’m backing the hotter team at + odds with a difficult scheme to prepare for going against a team that they match-up well with.  David Fales may keep the Spartans in this game, but Navy should keep him off the field with a dominant run game that eats up the clock and wears down this defense.  Navy 35, San Jose St 24.