So after going 1-7 last week, the silver lining was that there were no “bad beats”…No missed extra points, no fumbled hand-offs at the goal line, no poor decisions by a coach, and no blown calls by the refs…All seven losses were straight up blowouts…and quite honestly, that’s exactly how I like it..!!!

Dealing with bad weekends

After a week where you incur such a big loss, it’s easy to have your confidence shaken, and to lose your focus and discipline.  I thought this would be a good time to share a story with you of what happened to me in 2008 after a week like last.

After going 73-50 documented at TheRx for ~60% in 2006/2007 I got some friends who had some “coin” to invest in a Sports Wagering Fund that I would run and make weekly plays on college football.  Through a friend in the industry I was able to secure over $100K of weekly credit limits spread across Pinnacle, Cris, and Matchbook.  I used Cris for openers, Pinnacle for the best lines and for -105, and Matchbook for either lines that had moved or reduced juice (boy do I miss Matchbook…hahaha).

By week 6 we were up on the year, and while it was nothing to write home about, it was still less than halfway through the season, and we were “in the green” so that’s all that really mattered.  Week 7 started out just like any other week and as I settled in for the noon games I was hoping that this would be the week that would really give us some “cushion” and put us up significantly for the season.   I had six plays for the day, and while you always hope for the clean sweep, I knew that even a 4-2 day would put us up a nice amount at the halfway mark of the season.

Well, the early games didn’t go so well, but with a few plays at 3:30 and a big play on Missouri vs Oklahoma State at night I still felt good, or at least hopeful, that we could put a winning day together.  After the 3:30 games the feeling was not the same, as I lost those too, and now, instead of looking at sweeping the board today, there was the distinct possibility that I would get swept!

By the time Missouri got beat outright by Ok St as a big favorite, the nightmare day had finally come to an end, and not a winner in sight…0-6 was the final tally!!  Now I don’t like to disclose monetary figures, because what’s a dollar to some might be a dime to another…So let’s just say that my losses totaled in the five figures, and I’ll let your imagination determine where between 10,000 and 99,999 it fell.

Planning for the worst

Needless to say, I was a bit shell shocked that Saturday night.  I had never lost that amount of money, and I wasn’t sure what I should do.  Do I just shut it down, and at the very least spare me and my investors of some more losses?  Should I take the next week off to try and get my head together, and reassess my plan of action?  What if I cut my unit size in half, so as not to risk as much in case I had another bad weekend?  After thinking of my options, I realized that all of this was merely just a test of my plan (and my fortitude!!).  Would a sportsbook shut down, or take the next week off if it had a bad week?  Would they lower their limits the next week after the public beat them on a Fall Saturday?  Of course not, and for these reasons, then neither should I.  The main reason why we have a “bankroll” to start the season and adhere to risk management guidelines is in case of weekends just like these!  My bankroll was big enough to absorb such a loss, and while I didn’t want to be in this position, I had actually planned for this situation all along without even realizing it.

The following week was interesting, as I got more than a few phone calls from my group asking what the hell had happened.  I explained how we were prepared for this in case it did happen, and to my surprise everyone was in good spirits and had the utmost confidence in me putting things back together.  I joked around that if I just won one game the next weekend, it would be a step up from the previous week, and went into the weekend prepared for anything.  As the games started to unfold, I could see the light at the end of the tunnel, and after finishing the day 7-2 I had won back around 85% of the money that I had lost the previous week!  As ecstatic as I was following that great comeback, imagine how I would have felt if I had taken the week off…!!!

The point of this is just to illustrate, in a real life scenario, how important it is to stick to your rules, remain disciplined, and keep your risk management consistent throughout the year.  As long as your bankroll is suitable for the amount that you wager each week, there’s nothing wrong with an ugly Saturday, as long as it doesn’t happen too often.  This game is a marathon, not a sprint, and you must be prepared for that type of race.  The little (and sometimes big) ups and downs is just noise.  What is of substance is the plan that you create before the season starts in order to finish the race.

Wishing you a “green” weekend!

T$

P.S.  We ended up finishing the season in the positive, and I was able to return to my investors their principal, as well as a nice return on their investment.  Personally, I capped the season off with my largest win ever, as the Florida Gators won the National Championship, cashing a 6-1 futures ticket for me, bring home mid four figures.