YTD 5-8

I apologize for the slow start so far. Very uncharacteristic for anyone that knows me. It was a busy September and it showed with the lack of research and time to watch and analyze enough teams and the record indicates it. I took a week off to regroup and get back into my old habits. Let’s call it my bye week and I look for myself to be dangerous moving forward in a good way. I have some teams that I like alot moving forward for the 2nd half of the season and some great spots that I am itching to take advantage of.

This week, however, does not have alot of great spots or teams on my radar. I do still have plays and each I feel strongly about.

UCF +14 -130 at Louisville

NOTE: This line is currently sitting at +13 and has been moving in Louisville’s direction all week. You may be able to get a better UCF # tomorrow but I will take the -130 for now. I am also ok with +13 if no one wants to risk the extra 20 cents.

This game is basically for the AAC championship and I think Louisville are a little overvalued vs a very good UCF squad. Louisville showed some jitters last week vs a Rutgers team that really couldn’t run the ball and really do not have much on defense and yet Louisville played down to their level at home. If Louisville brings that same type of game, UCF will exploit it. UCF is a well coached team with playmakers on offense and defense. Blake Bortles is a good Qb and Storm Johnson can be dangerous in the open field. UCF defense showed some toughness this year esp in the first half vs South Carolina and I think they can hang with Louisville here. I do feel there is a chance for an outright UCF win but I have this being a single digit margin both ways.

Tennessee +7.5 vs South Carolina

I am not a believer of South Carolina on the road. While they did have a good performance vs Arkansas last week. I feel there is a good chance that they could sleepwalk through this game with a bigger one vs Missouri the week after. Tennessee is coming of a bye and should be feeling a little positive after showing a good performance despite a heartbreaking loss to Georgia. I think Butch Jones is starting to show his blueprint on the squad as we have seen improvements from QB Justin Worley and signs of life from the Tennessee offense and defense.  Tennessee has been looking for that signature win for a while and here is another good chance for Tennessee to get that. South Carolina has shown that they are not as dominant on the road as they are at home and I see this being a tight ballgame going down to the wire.

 

Florida/Missouri U44

The bread and butter,  The Florida under. Florida sports one of the best defenses in the country, if not the best. They have held opponents to a 17 pts outside of the game vs Miami where Miami hit 21 but only have a whopping 212 yards of total offense! Missouri comes in off a high with a big road win vs Georgia. We all know they lost their all-everything QB James Franklin but QB Maty Mauk is apparently a decent backup with talent.  There was a QB competition in the spring between Franklin and Mauk so that shows coach Gary Pinkel thinking highly of Mauk. However this is not the Georgia defense Mauk will be facing. Missouri could be without RB Josey and their highly touted WR’s should not have much of an advantage vs a Florida secondary that has 3 NFL type CB’s. On the other side. Missouri sports a very underrated defense that is led by their front 7 and face a Florida team that has lost a bunch of their playmakers on offense. I see this as a grind it out game where I do have the Gators winning but by a 23-17 scoreline. I feel that one of these defense is capable of keeping the other in single digits.

 

Houston +9.5 vs BYU

Nevada +22.5 vs Boise St

 

I have lumped these two games together because I think this is a look ahead spot for these two teams vs two tricky opponents. Boise St and BYU play each other next Friday in which is becoming a big game for the MWC. Nevada is coming off a bye and that has given them a much needed rest to get healthy. QB Fajardo should be healthly the first time in a while and Boise St D has not played like the Boise St D of old. giving up points to Air Force, a Keeton less Utah St team. I have this Nevada offense rated much higher than both these squads and while I see Boise St winning, I see a high scoring game where they do not cover here.

 

BYU has been playing good football but the spot here is one I don’t like. They are coming off a tough game gameplanning for the triple option of BYU, which always brings tough turnover gameplanning back to a team that doesn’t run a similar offense. They also have that big game on deck and they have to travel to the heat of Texas where the dome could be open at Reliant Stadium and you could see a BYU team becoming gassed. Houston in an undefeated team that really hasn’t played anyone and despite being undefeated have fallen under the radar a bit. I see this being a close game and being decided under a TD. Taking the points here should be wise.

 

 Oregon/Washington St U73

An Oregon under?  This is not a misprint. The main reason for this play is the Oregon D. I have them rated as one of the best in the country. They showed alot holding Washington to 24 points last week and have literally shut down every other offense to date. Washington St comes in with an above average Pac 12 D and while they shouldn’t slow down Oregon. They should be able to keep them under their crazy #’s especially if Thomas is out and Huff is not able to go. I see Oregon winning this one easily and trying to keep healthy with a bigger matchup vs UCLA on deck. I see a 52-14 final here for the Ducks

 

Ball St -17 vs Western Michigan
I just have this as a total mismatch. Ball St, one of the best teams in the MAC comes to a wounded Western Michigan team that is getting blown out left and right. Western Michigan has lost it’s last 5 games by an average of 31 points and in comes a Ball St off a big win vs Kent St but can score points at will vs the majority of MAC teams. This is just one of those games where you have a high powered offense on the upswing and you have a home team really going nowhere. Western Michigan has no homefield edge and the stadium should be half empty by the 2nd half. I have Ball St rolling here.

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