Week 5: “In The Money” with TrentMoney
A quick thought and a link on a busy Football Friday…
Tracking line moves and chasing steam can be a confusing, and sometimes perilous endeavor. These days, with offshores releasing early lines, syndicates moving spreads both ways just to get the best of both numbers, along with the weekly service plays that have an effect on the market, it can catch watchers off guard as to when to make a play, and which moves are worthy of significance.
Two line moves were prescient in their forecasting last week, and I feel similar type of action should be considered when deciding what moves are “real”.
Virgina Tech started the week on Monday as an 11 point favorite over Marshall. Oregon State was listed as the same heavy favorite against San Diego State.
Now if you ask your Average Joe who he’s thinking of betting on any given Saturday, he might say Alabama, Texas, or USC. I doubt very much the words “Marshall and San Diego State” are the first to come out of his mouth!! But by Saturday, the line was VT -8 and Oregon St -7. So the move went to the small school underdog, and against the big school favorite, and it obviously wasn’t by Joe Shmoe.
In this situation, it’s obvious that the people who know what they’re doing were on a certain side, and with Marshall losing by 8 in OT and SDSU by 4, the move to the dog was profitable. So while all line moves aren’t meaningful, certain situations mandate a closer look at where the money is going.
If you want to hear more of my thoughts on this week’s games, check out this week’s Saturday Edge podcast that I did with SabertStxVii.
May your weekend be green!
T$
2 thoughts on “Week 5: “In The Money” with TrentMoney”
Leave a Reply to Trentmoney Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
very interesting comments. and i think you are correct…
but where do you draw the line? is joe public FADING VTech? doubt joe public is fading oregon state or tailing SDSU… and at the end of the day, i doubt joe public is FADING VT but i do think he knows alot more teams than he knew years ago.
internet chat rooms are probably 80/20 noisy public vs. people who know what they are doing. but i guess there’s a huge betting public that doesn’t know internet chat rooms (but they do know the internet)
anyway, thought your writeup was good and i agree with you. just hard to know where to draw the line on teams.
I believe the professionals were on the small school dogs, thus moving the line in their favor…the average joe at the bar is not betting sdsu or marshall, so to move the line 3 points in their favor had to be pros and only pros… not just a normal line move in these cases