Week 5: Ugly Games, Pretty Results?
Hey guys, below are some of my thoughts on this week’s slate of games. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to respond and I will be happy to answer.
Also, you can find me on Twitter @SmithAdamJ5. Good luck!
South Carolina @ UCF +7
The Gamecocks head to Orlando to face the Knights in what could end up being one of the better out-of-conference games we see on Saturday. Both teams are coming off byes, with South Carolina hosting Kentucky next week and UCF going to Memphis. I really like this UCF team. This is the first sellout UCF has had since 2011, and the Knights know that a win over USC could get them the national recognition they’re searching for. UCF has one of the best running backs in the country in Storm Johnson, and the Gamecocks could be susceptible to that, giving up 227 rushing yards to Georgia. The talent of UCF’s defense remains to be seen, and I think South Carolina won’t have too much of an issue putting points on them either. The total sits at 53 and I think this could get to 60 points quite easily. This is the biggest game UCF has had in quite awhile. I expect more public money to come in on South Carolina and this may get up to 7.5. I’d like it a whole lot more if it got closer to 10, but nonetheless I like both UCF to cover and this to go over 53.
UCONN @ Buffalo -1
Talk about some line movement. This game opened at UCONN -2.5 and sits at Buffalo -1 right now. The Huskies gave Michigan a scare at home last week losing 24-21, whereas Buffalo is coming off a bye week. I love Buffalo in this spot. Although Buffalo is 1-2, their two losses were at OhioState in a game they lost by 20 but hung tough with the Bucks, and at Baylor, who is a juggernaut offensively. Connecticut has lost three games at home, and hits the road for the first time this year before having a bye next week and starting conference play the week after. I just do not see how UCONN gets up for this game emotionally after last week. Buffalo is a team I think will make some noise in the MAC, and getting them at essentially a pick ‘em at home with two weeks to prepare makes me a buyer.
Temple @ Idaho +8
You may need a fifth of Makers Mark to get through watching this one. Both of these teams are bad, so it’s hard to find nice things to write about them. Looking at Idaho’s losses, they aren’t as bad as it initially looks. In their road games they’ve lost at North Texas who’s much improved and hung with Georgia in Athens, at Wyoming who we’ve seen is a solid squad, and at Wazzou who is an underrated team in year two of the Mike Leach era. In their only home game so far, they lost to Northern Illinois by 10. Northern Illinois is leaps and bounds better than Temple. Temple has Louisville at home next week and Cincinnati the week after. I have a hard time buying in that Temple is going to be fully focused traveling to lowly Idaho with their biggest game of the year next week. It’s gonna be ugly, but I like Idaho to cover the 8.
Troy +11 @ Duke
The Blue Devils host the Trojans in what could end up being a shootout. Both defenses are suspect at best. Troy got smoked by MississippiState last week 62-7, so I would expect an inspired effort from them before jumping back into conference play next week. I am expecting an emotional letdown from Duke after a 58-55 loss to Pitt last week. Troy moves the ball well through the air, averaging 310 ypg, putting them 20th in the NCAA. The Blue Devils gave up 424 yards passing to Pitt last week, and I would not want to lay double digits with that kind of vulnerability in the secondary. If Troy has some pride and comes out hungry after getting trounced last week, they should cover the 11 points.
Houston @ UTSA +3
The Cougars head to San Antonio to take on the Roadrunners Saturday at 4 ET. The Cougars are coming off a big 31-26 win against inner city rival Rice, and UTSA beat UTEP 32-13 on the road last week. This is a classic sandwich game for Houston. They are coming off a big win against a rival, go on the road to take on UTSA, far from a traditional power, then come back home next week to jump into conference play. This is only the Roadrunners second home game, their first being against a 56-35 loss to OklahomaState. Houston’s talent remains to be seen, with their first three games being against Southern, Temple, and Rice. I will take the home pup in this one.
6 thoughts on “Week 5: Ugly Games, Pretty Results?”
Leave a Reply to SabertStxVii Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I’m with you on Idaho and I got them early this week at +9.
I guess I am the only one around that has laid money on South Carolina at -6.5. I know CFU is a good ball team and I won with them in week #1 and the week they played Penn State. BUT, South Carolina is a different demon than Penn State. Penn State is still young and inexperienced AND let’s face it, they are not nearly as athletic and fast as the top tier SEC teams. The thing about this CFU team is that they are mature and sound. They remind me a lot of ULM with their veteran QB. However, the same thing ULM ran into with Oklahoma and Baylor is what I think UCF is going to experience with South Carolina. The speed and athleticism of South Carolina is going to be too much for UCF to handle.
I like your other plays though and I wish you luck this weekend.
I locked in SC as well BS. UCF is a solid team, but SC is probably a top 10 team. SC is down this year, blah blah. They are an elite SEC team and regardless of how good UCF is, SC off a bye should be focused, specially with UCF knocking off PSU. 31-10 type of game I think.
I agree.
I’m also looking at Idaho. But I may have to hold my nose and press the submit button. The Kibbie Dome can be a tough place to play for teams coming in out of their element from the east coast. NIU had their problems there a couple weeks ago. I also like UTSA this week. Bad spot for a Houston team that normally doesn’t travel that well. BS, after looking at that SC/UCF game for a long time last night, I tend to agree with you. My first inclination was to take UCF in this spot. But the problem is the cat is out of the bag with this team after upsetting Penn State. It means SC won’t take them lightly. And SC will also be rested for this game after a bye week, which eliminates any potential sandwich spot.
Yeah, it’s like a whole new level stepping up from the games that UCF has played so far to play one of the elite teams in the SEC. And, like you said, I don’t think USC will sleep on them in this game.
I wanted to play UTSA on the ML like I did New Mexico this week, but for some reason Bookmaker hasn’t put out a ML on that game. Why would their be MLs for all games but that one? The spread is UTSA +2.5 last I looked, but no ML.
BS…With the spread under 3 I was also going to play UTSA on the ML. I ran into the same problem in Bookmaker. I don’t know why they didn’t list it, but it isn’t the first time I’ve seen them leave out the ML choice. I can’t really think of a reason why they would do that on purpose.