College Football Week 4: Underdog Saturday?
Week 4: Underdog Saturday?
Hey guys. Below are some of my thoughts on this weekend’s slate of games. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment or follow me on Twitter @SmithAdamJ5 and I will be happy to answer. Good luck!
Louisiana Lafayette -7 @ Akron
An interesting Sun Belt vs. MAC match up is going down on Saturday at 6 ET in Akron when the Ragin’ Cajuns take on the Zips. Akron was the darling of sports fans last week, nearly pulling the upset at Michigan. Louisiana has a deceiving 1-2 record. ULL has lost two tough ones at Arkansas and Kansas State, both by respectable margins. Akron is coming off an emotional performance at Michigan and normally I would be looking to fade a team in a similar spot, but with Akron I see it as an advantage. Akron is a team that is going to improve as the season goes on, and their effort in Ann Arbor should give them a big boost of confidence. I look for Akron to stay inside the number.
Cincinnati -23 @ Miami OH
The Bearcats and Redhawks will square off in Oxford in a rivalry game. As a Cincinnati resident, I have a close look into both of these teams. Cincinnati has a bye week next week before starting conference play, whereas Miami has had two weeks off after taking a 41-7 thrashing at Kentucky. Where Miami is vulnerable on defense is their secondary, and I’m just not sure that Cincy QB Brendon Kay can take advantage of that enough to cover this big number. Kay lost the job to Munchie Legaux during camp with shoulder soreness, and still isn’t 100%. Miami’s had two weeks to prepare for their home opener against the Bearcats, and should be hungry to put up a better effort after getting thrashed in Lexington. UC has a bye next week before heading to USF to open AAC play, and I think that plays into Miami having an edge here.
Louisiana Monroe +29.5 @ Baylor
Some value has been lost on Baylor after this one opened at 27.5. If it’s possible to still be undervalued as a four touchdown favorite, Baylor is. Baylor is going to get to 60 points. Will ULM get to 32? I don’t see it. I think Monroe is a hell of a team when playing against similar talent levels, but the Warhawks are taking a huge step up in class this week in Waco. Louisiana Monroe likes to play in a more “grind it out” pace, utilizing QB Browning as a dual threat. The Warhawks have been on the road 3 out of 4 weeks to open the season, and their conference opener at home next week against Tulane couldn’t come soon enough. Baylor wins this by 5 TD’s at minimum.
Middle Tennessee -4 @ Florida Atlantic
There’s no place like home. Florida Atlantic is finally getting to play a home game this season against Middle Tennessee after opening the first three weeks on the road. The Owls are coming off an 18 point win at USF, and lost their first two games of the season at Miami and East Carolina. I watched both of those games from start to finish and I liked what I saw from FAU. They have an underrated defense, and were able to hold Miami to 4-14 and ECU to 5-13 on 3rd down conversions. Middle Tennessee is 2-1 with wins over W. Carolina and a two point win at home over Memphis. The Blue Raiders play on ESPN next Friday night at BYU. All the angles I like to play point towards Florida Atlantic getting the cover, and an outright win.
North Texas +32.5 @ Georgia
The Mean Green will travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs in a noon ET tilt Saturday. North Texas is coming off a home win over a talented Ball State team who figures to be in the MAC title picture, and has some confidence. Georgia had last week off after a tough two game start to open the season with Clemson and South Carolina. North Texas is a gritty team that is not going to lie down or be intimidated in Athens. Georgia has their biggest game left on the schedule next week when they host LSU in what should be a classic. North Texas’ biggest offensive strength is passing the ball with QB Derek Thompson, averaging 291 YPG. Georgia’s biggest question mark is their defense, and specifically the secondary. I’m not calling for an outright upset by North Texas by any means, but they may be catching Georgia at the right time. I like the Mean Green to stay inside the number.
Michigan State +6.5 @ Notre Dame
In a rather boring slate of Saturday games, it’s very possible the premier game could be one of the most boring of them all. The total for this game is sitting at 40.5, which seems like it should be the total for a Browns vs. Steelers game. Both the Spartans and Irish come into their game with rather unimpressive starts to the season. Michigan State had an underwhelming start to the season, beating Western Michigan by 13 and South Florida by 15, but seemed to finally get their offense on track last week with the emergence of Connor Cook at QB, with a 55 point outburst against Youngstown State. Taking a look at Notre Dame’s body of work so far, I’m not impressed in the slightest bit. They won by three touchdowns against a much inferior Temple team, lost in a convincing manner to a Michigan team that perhaps showed their true colors last week almost losing to as 36 point chalk at home to Akron, and barely got by a disaster of a Purdue team. If you decide to lay the touchdown with Notre Dame, you’re essentially putting your money on Tommy Rees being able to successfully navigate the best defense he’s seen all year. Michigan State has a bye week on deck and Notre Dame faces Oklahoma. I like Michigan State to cover and have a really good chance at the upset in South Bend.
- Previous TSE Live Chat – Wednesday, September 18, 2013
- Next Premium Handicapping Contests – Week # 4
9 thoughts on “College Football Week 4: Underdog Saturday?”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I with you on FAU and have already got my money laid on that one.
I disagree with you on U-La-La and Akron. I think Akron’s loss last week will be celebrated as a win and they are likely still celebrating there. U-La-La is underrated because they played two tough early games that they lost. They are still a very good football team and they will not be asleep against this Akron team that nearly pulled the upset on Michigan last week. Getting a much better team under a TD is great line value.
I will probably join you on the North Texas play. I’m still waiting to see if the SEC Kool-aid drinkers will bet Georgia up and give me an even better line.
Good thoughts, thanks for sharing!
ULL is one of my ‘babies’ so to speak, so it was definitely tough to pick against them. I just think Akron is a little better than the perception of them indicates. I could definitely be wrong on this, and you’re right, if you like ULL here, less than a TD is good value. Good luck!
I had North Texas as a good value/ATS team before the season. And I’ve already won twice on them so far, so I’m drinking the Mean Green Kool-Aid. Last week was a big emotional come from two scores down win for NT, so I’m not sure how much they have left in the tank this week. They acted like they won the Superbowl after that game. So this is a game that I’m still debating betting on. Ball State may be feeling some of the same effects this week after suffering a come from ahead loss and then hitting the road again as favorites this week. This used to be a HUGE situational rubberband play for all of the cappers in the RX. We would find 2 or 3 of these games a season. And it paid off more times than not. Plus Ball State got the shit knocked out of them last week. That was one of the hardest hitting games that I’ve ever seen. Those WR’s and RB’s for Ball State probably still have a few bruises to show from that game. So as bad as they are, Eastern Michigan may be a possibility this week.
That’s really good insight. I didn’t catch the end of the game theatrics, certainly see where you’re coming from. I looked at Eastern Michigan long and hard, but didn’t have the stones to pull the trigger. I’m with you on being bullish on North Texas, will be interesting to see how they get going in conference play.
Adam, I still think North Texas is going to struggle somewhat in winning games once they go into conference play because they don’t have the overall team speed to play straight up with teams like UCF and Marshall. That’s what kind of scares me against UGA this week. But I think they cover many of those big spread games in conference since very few teams play good defense in the CUSA. As for Eastern Michigan, my gonads have softened over the years, so I’m not sure I have the nuts to play that game either. I’m still deciding on it depending on where the line goes. It’s up to 10.5 from 8 in most books. The number 13 has always been a key number for me when taking the dogs. If it should get to that number EM is definitely a play-on. I kind of think the linesmakers had it right the first time with -8. I’m still trying to decide if Ball State might be a little overrated this year. They overachieved last year. Pete Lembo is a pretty good coach, but from talking to ex-football players and coaches, there is almost nothing more deflating than having a game well in hand with the lead than the other team coming back and taking it from you. It’s tough on the psyche. Then you’ve got to pull yourselves together and go play on the road again the next week as even bigger favorites. It can be a tough task to win much less cover those kinds of games.
What a joke! Your fucking description is opposite from the pick headlines. WTF
What’s your problem Johnny? Are you too lazy to read the game summaries or too stupid? The game headlines simply indicate the point spread of the away team, they have nothing to do with his pick or recommendation.
That is not the proper way to post the headlines. You know that
Johnny, you actually bring up a good point in that by just looking at the game “headline” one could get confused as to who Adam is recommending.
I believe Kiel’s comment was in reference to the way you presented your point of view.
In any case I will let Adam know about the confusion.
Thanks Guys.