Michigan State at Notre Dame

If you, like me, make a line on every game so as to be ready to face the openers you’ll often have been in the frustrating situation I was last night. I made Notre Dame -7.5 over Michigan State, so when the opener appeared at -7 it was a clear no play.

And yet skipping over the game seemed a waste of a carefully developed opinion. I think Notre Dame ran into a monster in Ann Arbor, and just hit  a let-down spot versus Purdue and so will play to their considerable potential here. And I think Michigan State, led by a kid making his second start who will be surrounded by suspect skill players, is vulnerable.

So even though the scenario where the MSU defense does hero work is too alive for me to make a bet, I will be tuned in to see if I can get a Notre Dame -4 at any point. I’m guessing that Coach Dantonio might open things up a little knowing that to win he has to score early, and that would heighten the chance for an early Spartan score (as well as a pick 6).

If Notre Dame would happen to be trailing going into the fourth quarter, I’d also take them on the moneyline. Notre Dame’s defense plays good tactical football, and they will make things trickier and trickier for the green QB Connor Cook if he’s got a chance late.

Boise at Fresno (Friday Night)

Last week I discussed how high scoring back and forth games lend themselves to middle-hunting in-game bettors, and Friday night offers just such a shootout.

Because the Fresno kids had an unexpected week off and had to stay football through a flood, and their depth is in question, I have a slight lean toward Boise which I bias my original window to reflect.

I will take Boise +7.5 or more, and Fresno at -2.5 or better. However, if Boise gets off early I’ll hold off on taking Fresno at any first quarter price short of +10. Once the second quarter starts I’ll take positions and try to close the loop according to the original window.