TSE college football handicapping team posted a 17-8 record ATS (68%) this past week. Below you will find each handicappers record for this past week and a sample write-up. For more information on our Premium Service please click here.

TSE College Football Handicapping – Week 3

GoSooners: 6-1

Texas Tech +3 (-105)

I probably had TCU forecasted a little higher than I should have in the preseason. And they may still live up to expectations. But right now like a lot of teams in the Big 12, they are having QB issues, which always makes these games tough to cap. Not that I consider QB Boykin a big problem because he is an elusive runner with 4.4 speed. But until last week he was a backup, just like he was last year before Pachall went out.

I don’t really like what I’ve seen from the TCU offense to this point. I think it’s going to take Boykin another game or two for him and this offense to find it’s rhythm. Right now they don’t have it. And Lubbock is a tough place not to have the offense clicking.  I think they’ll more than likely start putting things together offensively during their bye week starting next week.. The bottom line is this offense hasn’t looked good so far. The LSU game really wasn’t as close as the score. TCU only had 259 total yards in that game against a rebuilt LSU defense. And they were outyardaged by another 200 yards by LSU. Not very TCU-like.

Not that TT’s QB situation is that fluid either. But at least up to this point Baker Mayfield has played well, won on the road, and has the home field advantage and will still be in his comfort zone. So I don’t see this as being the game that he comes back down to earth. With all things being even, I’ve always liked the Big 12 home team getting points when not facing the Big 12 powers. This game falls in that category. A big rivalry game that has a lot of recruiting implications since many of these players from both teams come from the same areas. But a HUGE game also for TT to protect the homefield in what should be a tight Big 12 race.

Like I said, look for TCU to look much better in a couple weeks after they come off their bye week. I think this is when they will become a play-on team. But I don’t like them in this role as favorites on the road. The Frogs are usually much better when they aren’t getting any respect.

Jimmyshivers: 4-1

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks ML (+132)

I just have absolutely no faith in Wake Forest right now and will look to keep fading them (I had Boston last week but was only able to post it on twitter).  I believe that while Wake has a relatively solid defense they are absolutely atrocious offensively and are going to really struggle to score points this season.  Last year Wake had my 120th ranked offense nationally and the switch to more of an option attack is really struggling to click early as the Deacs don’t really have a QB suitable to running it (Tanner Price is much more comfortable in the pocket) and aren’t getting very good blocking.

Wake Forest has always been a team who tries to red shirt as many freshmen as possible but this year they’ve already played double digit true freshmen; I think it’s a program that is a little desperate to get things back on track.  Grobe is as good of a coach as Wake has seen in a long time but it is very difficult to sustain recruiting success at Wake Forest and a program that has had 3 losing seasons in the last 4 years appears to have returned to their previous level of mediocrity.  With Kolton Browning ready to go and 17 starters returning I have little doubt that Louisiana-Monroe is the better and more talented team.  I say the wrong team is favored here, but will play it small out of respect for the coaching ability of Jim Grobe.  The under is also a play that is worth considering.  It’s going to be a long season in Winston-Salem.  Warhawks 24, Demon Deacons 20.

Maggiore: 1-1

Michigan St/Youngstown State over 40 (2 Units)

I cannot believe I just typed Michigan State and the word over in the same sentence. First things first, this Spartan offense is not very good. Wait, to say they are not very good is an insult to things that aren’t very good. The Sparty O is horrible. So, you may ask, why are you taking them over the total? My answer to that would be that even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. That analogy works very well here because with Jim Bollman serving as the offensive coordinator for MSU, they essentially have a blind squirrel calling the plays. However, eventually teams will break out and put up some points and a matchup with FCS’ Youngstown State is just what the doctor ordered. YSU has played two games against FCS non-scholarship opponents and this is a big step up in competition. I see the Penguins struggling to adjust to the step up in speed and MSU trying to put the issue and get some points on the board. Normally a defense as good as Michigan State’s will help to keep games under the total, but I look for this D to cause a few turnovers and set up MSU with opportunities to score. This total will be sweated until the 4^th, but it will go over the number. The over here is my 2 unit play this week.

Pezgordo: 3-3

UCLA +4.5

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Line value: on a neutral field I have no doubt UCLA would be favored, so is Memorial Stadium worth an entire TD (or more)?

The Nebraska defense sucks. In 3 of their last 4 games they’ve allowed 640, 589 & 602 yards. In those games they faced a QB who simply handed the ball off and allowed his running backs to run over the “blackshirts.” They faced Aaron Murray, a pocket passer who shredded them for 427 yards passing and 5 TDs, and they faced an non-BCS QB who threw for 383 yards and 4 TDs. And the scary thing is, none of these QBs was a dual-threat, which as we’ve seen in the past, Nebraska’s D has no answer for.

Well hello big-time dual-threat QB. Brett Hundley is the real deal and is arguably the best dual-threat QB in the country. Last year in only his second career start, Hundley led the UCLA offense to 653 yards (344 rushing & 309 passing) & 4 TD passes in a 36-30 win over Nebraska that really wasn’t as close as the final score.

Just not seeing Nebraska making up 10.5 points on a UCLA team that is as good as, and possibly better, than last years version.

UCLA 38, Nebraska 31

SabertStxVii: 3-2

Georgia Tech -8 vs Duke

I’m sure this play surprises some of you. Georgia Tech is a running team that is favored by nearly double digits, on the road in a conference game. Tough. There are lots of reasons why I like Georgia Tech.

First, Duke has historically struggled with the option they see from Tech. The past 4 seasons Tech has scored 49, 30, 38 and 42. Putting up points has not been the problem, and I don’t envision it being an issue this season either. Georgia Tech has one of their stronger offenses I think from the previous few years, primarily due to Vad Lee. I think he is an upgrade over Tevin Washington. Ga Tech also returns all but one of their OL, a slew of RBs and enough WRs.

Duke seems to have improved on defense with 8 returning starters, mostly all from up front. They may be better against the option than they were in previous years, but I still see Georgia Tech scoring in the high 30s and probably 40s in this game.

The biggest question is can Duke score in the 30s to cover this spread. I don’t think so. Duke’s starting QB, the QB who they designed their offense around went down with a broken collarbone last week against Memphis. Granted, the backup came in and played well, but it’s Memphis. Duke was only up by a TD with 6 minutes to go in the 4^th and scored a late one to pad the scoreboard.

I think it will be a challenge for the new QB to adjust from an FCS and Memphis defense to a relatively strong Ga Tech defense. Most of the reason I like Tech in this one is due to the strength of their defense. The secondary and linebackers are the least of Tech’s worries and with their best pass rusher returning, they will be able to keep this new QB under duress. I don’t think Duke has a strong enough run game to establish the play action in this one to take the pressure of the QB. I think the new QB with a short week to prepare will struggle with his first game vs. an ACC defense. I think some turnovers will be the game changer in this one, and I don’t see Duke creating them.

Finally, Georgia Tech is coming off of a bye week. A bye week to gear up for their first conference road game is pretty big. They should be rested, and prepared. Duke is scrambling to get their personnel together. Additionally, Tech QB Vad Lee is from Durham, he will be ready to put on a show for family and friends. Can’t hurt right?

Final Score

Georgia Tech 42, Duke 24

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