College Football Week 3 Quick Hitters: Betting Nuggets and Featured Pick
Who is ready to watch an epic, Top-10 grudge match with Alabama taking on Texas A&M in front of the notorious 12th man of Kyle Field? I know I’m ready. I will be savoring this marquee matchup on Saturday afternoon, because after looking ahead to next week schedule, there are ZERO top 25 matchups on the slate. NONE! So, if you were planning on running some errands, cleaning the garage, or whatever, just put it off until next week and enjoy some quality college football tomorrow afternoon. So with that, let’s get to this week’s Quick Hitters:
In case you are new to this segment, this article will point out the top betting nuggets of the week by identifying trends, stats, and situations to be aware of. As I mention every week, it is important to remember that these trends and stats are only one piece of the puzzle when trying to figure out which team to place a wager on. They shouldn’t be followed blindly, but instead they should be considered and factored into the broader context and reasoning for selecting a side.
8 thoughts on “College Football Week 3 Quick Hitters: Betting Nuggets and Featured Pick”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
You’re wrong on the Nebraska thing. I can’t guarantee they will cover, but Nebraska is going to win that game. UCLA is not a great road team and Hundley gets sacked far too often. Nebraska is going to average over 6 ypc and I’d recommend the under, if anything.
This is an interesting game for several reasons. The “situationals” tend to line up for Nebraska. They have revenge on their minds, at home, playing at 11am local time (which will feel like 9am for UCLA).
However, the X’s and O’s line up for UCLA in my opinion. They have the ability to spread out Nebraska and attack them so many different ways. Wyoming is a “poor man’s UCLA” with a similar offensive playing style, and they absolutely shredded the Nebraska defense. If Hundley is locked in, he has the opportunity to move the ball consistently against the Huskers. If UCLA get’s the running game going, that should keep the NEB defense off-balance, negating their potential to pressure Hundley in passing situations.
This will definitely be a fun one to watch either way!
Hundley was a freshman working behind an OL w/ a lot of injury problems last season. They’ll both be better and hopefully (if you are a UCLA backer/fan) less injury prone this season.
In either case, Nebraska’s ability to pressure the QB is pretty weak. This isn’t Stanford’s front seven (55 sacks & a team UCLA had to play twice last season), it’s only Nebraska (24 sacks against FBS opponents).
OL, I took Mississippi State at +7 early in the week and spent the extra $10 ( I play $100 a unit) to buy the hook at +7.5. Auburn hasn’t really impressed me so far as the team’s offense hasn’t been overly impressive and their defense seems to be the same as it was last season which is not very good. Last week Auburn allowed Arkansas State nearly as many total yards as what they themselves gained.Auburn has surprisingly been getting a lot of their yards by running the ball. Mississippi State’s defense is it’s strong point and Auburn is going to find it hard to run on them. I was impressed with the way MSU held Okie State to only 21 points in the first game. Offensively, MSU is not real good and hasn’t been for a couple years now. But, they have to feel bolstered a bit going to play against a defense that is allowing 443 yards a game so far and that is against a couple of teams that are just middle of the road FBS.
MSU has already played a better team than Auburn in the first week and performed well. I think this is a tight game where MSU has a chance to win SU. You have to love the points here. Apparently, the smart money does.
Honestly, I like anything over 3 or 4 points in this game, so 7.5 is a fair amount of line value, IMO. I really think this will be a tight game decided by a FG either way. Mississippi State will have Russell and Perkins back for this one too, so you have to like that.
I’m not feeling the love for Iowa. I’m not much of a “trend” guy, but this is Iowa State’s only rival game of the season and they ALWAYS get up for Iowa no matter how bad of a team they may have. I have to pick Rhoads over Ferentz, too, in the coaching department. I’m surprised Ferentz has been able to keep his job.
I’m relying heavily on the noticeable line of scrimmage advantage for Iowa in this game. Hopefully that negates any “added motivation” ISU has playing a rivalry game at home.
The best recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and stop the run. I believe the Hawkeyes will excel in those two departments on Saturday.
BS, I’m kind of liking the over for Iowa/ISU. Iowa moving the ball much better this season, and have a better QB. I never liked Vandenberg. And he was a terrible fit for Greg Davis offense. Rudock is much better. Plus he is a halfway mobile QB that is very capable of tucking and running. Iowa really hasn’t had this dimension to their offense in a few years if ever under Ferentz. Iowa had over 450 yards on Northern Illinois and outyardaged them, but had 3 turnovers. They put up about the same yardage last week. ISU’s defense much weaker this season, as they showed against Northern Iowa. I like Iowa here, but the over might be the safest play since ISU had had 2 weeks to prepare. But bye weeks in the second week doesn’t always favor teams. In fact last year I believe 2nd week bye teams had a losing ATS record in the 3rd week.