A very slow start to the season continued, with all three of my posted plays going down in flames.  Florida dominated much of the game in the trenches as expected, but multiple red zone meltdowns prevented them from getting the points needed to win (and cover).  Duke and Memphis took far too long to get things going, their game ended the first half with only 14 points and it was lucky to do that.  And Syracuse just didn’t do enough defensively to really be competitive enough to stay within the number, even if their offense had the type of success that I expected they would.

This week emphasized the reason that I like to start the season small, both in number of plays and units risked.  The first two weeks were brutal,but they were our two smallest cards of the year with the least amount of bankroll capital at risk.  Though were in a small hole to start the year, I’m confident that it will not take long to bounce back, as now that we have more to work with in our evaluations of the teams and their ability to match-up with different opponents.

YTD Overall: 1-6 -11.22 units

Wins                              Losses                         Units

NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.56
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66

Play Summary:

4 Units — Texas A&M – Alabama Over 60.5 (-110)

3 Units — Virginia Tech — East Carolina Under 55 (-110)

 3 units — Duke – Georgia Tech Over 56 (-110)

 3 Units — Southern California Trojans -13.5 (-110) 

 2 Units — Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks ML (+132)

 

Plays w/ write-ups

3 Units — Virginia Tech — East Carolina Under 55 (-110)

I feel like were getting some good number value with the under here in a game where the team that figures to set the tempo is one that is extremely defensively oriented.  This total is kept a bit higher by East Carolina’s offensive proficiency, but their running into a VT defense that is going to be an extremely tough match-up for them.  This VT defense has the look of an elite unit to me, they shut down a very talented Alabama offense by dominating their offensive line at the point of attack (3.3 yards per play allowed) but gave up 35 points by way of three defensive & special teams touchdowns.  East Carolina runs the kind of offense that puts up big numbers on less athletic teams due to their ability to create favorable 1v1 match-ups in space and to wear down teams with questionable depth, but against deeper and more talented teams they tend to struggle (16.6 ppg in 5 games vs BCS teams last 2Y vs  28.9 ppg overall)

Even when ECU figures to struggle offensively it’s been a risky move to back the under in the past due to their defensive struggles at times (game up 35+ points 6x last year and 11x last 2Y) but this Virginia Tech team has big issues offensively.  Logan Thomas still appears to be regressing from his 2011 peak and has really struggled throwing the football in both games this year (vs FCS Western Carolina:  17-31 for 200 yards and a 1-2 TD-INT ratio).  Virginia Tech is still figuring out to to move the football consistently in their new offensive system (last weeks 45 pts vs WCU were a little deceiving with the Hokies scoring on a few big plays and a pick 6).  ECU hasn’t played a good offensive team yet, but they’ve been pretty solid against the run so far and figure some success at the point of attack.  If ECU can hold their own in the running game, it will force Logan Thomas to make plays which he’s really struggled with the past few years.

Virginia Tech is a quintessential under team for me this season, and the fact that the Alabama freakishly went over the total has positioned us to take the under in Greenville with a number that is higher than it should be.  This figures to be another game where the VT excels while the Hokies offense struggles to consistently put drives together.  I’m keeping this as a standard sized play because I don’t trust the Hokies yet in the turnover & special teams departments, but I think they eek out a tough victory on the road.  Hokies 24 Pirates 21.

 3 units — Duke – Georgia Tech Over 56 -110

I’m going back to the well here with a Duke over even though it didn’t work out too well last week.  I’m just really high on this GT offense and their ability to consistently move the football on teams like Duke who don’t have the defensive depth to get off the field consistently.  Duke’s defense statistically looks improved so far this season but that comes with the caveat of playing two teams who aren’t very good offensively (Memphis & NC Central).  I still think they are thin in the defensive trenches and will struggle to win at the line of scrimmage versus a salty GT offensive line.  This Duke team has allowed 49, 30, 38 and 42 points to GT over the last 4 years and I think this version of the flex rivals any of the previous versions.   Vad Lee is a much better passer than Tevin Washington was and he is a more explosive runner as well, which creates all kinds of problems for defenses who aren’t overly quick and physical once he gets into space.  With this being Duke’s third game of the season already their wasn’t too much time in the off season to get extra reps practicing versus this scheme so I expect Duke to struggle to play assignment football and give up some big plays (GT ranked 21st last season in 20+ yard plays from scrimmage, Duke was last nationally in the same stat).

Offensively last week Duke suffered a blow with the loss of QB Anthony Boone, but they have a back-up with a similar skill set who played last year as a goal line QB (8 td rushes, 3-0 TD-INT ratio) when Duke wanted to take advantage of his size and physicality and has also gotten a decent number of reps in both games so far this year (19-29, 4-1 TD-INT).  Duke is running a bit of a different offense this year in that their looking to mix in more of a running game and create space for guys like Jamison Crowder on the edge to have success in space.  I think Duke is still able to move the football with the back-up QB, and if GT is as successful as I expect they will be moving the ball it will force Duke to open it up a little and look to be aggressive in the passing game.  Georgia Tech is still adjusting back to a 4-3 defense this season after making the switch in midseason last year, and the new DC Ted Roof does not have a good history of leading shutdown defensive units (he also has a big history of giving up a lot of points to opponents at Wallace-Wade stadium from his days as the Duke HC!).

This is a game where both teams have really strong offensive units and an advantage in the offensive trenches (key to moving the chains consistently) with a total that is kept low by the perceived defensive progress of both.  Personally I think both defenses will struggle here against offenses that are implementing some new looks and have multiple ways to move the football.  My feeling here is that the Jackets move the ball at will and Duke is forced to chase the game and look to move the ball in chunks.  Georgia Tech 42, Duke 31.  I will also be looking to play the GT Team Total Over when it comes out on Friday.

3 Units — Southern California Trojans -13.5 (-110) 

This won’t be a popular play, but the line value were getting with Southern Cal this week is two good to pass up in what is a really good situation for them to boot.  If Southern Cal was 2-0 I wouldn’t look to back them in this spot as its the kind of game (non-conference, non-marquee) that a team with their talent would tend to look past.  However USC was embarrassed last week at home by Wazzou and is having an “all hands on deck” kind of week where they try to figure out how to save their season.  Normally I’m extremely skeptical of backing a team in this spot, but when I look at this game I see a tremendous match-up advantage for USC in both the offensive and defensive lines.

I’m a big Chase Rettig fan but watching the Wake Forest game last week it is apparent that BC still can’t consistently protect him and that he is really limited in making plays with his feet when plays break down.  The Trojans lead the country in sacks so far this season and figure to do a good job consistently pressuring Rettig.  USC has implemented a new 5-2 defensive scheme this year that is ideal for facing a team like BC in that it will allow them to match-up 1v1 up front and really limit the running lanes for Andre Williams, who is a between-the-tackles kind of back.  BC has a nice weapon in Alex Amidon, but I feel like USC will use a lot of press coverage on him to limit his ability to get off the line while the front 7 does their thing to a BC line that isn’t very deep or especially skilled.  I just don’t see how BC consistently moves the ball, and if Rettig starts forcing things he will put USC on some short fields.

SC’s big problem early this year has been with the offense, they just aren’t getting good production from the QBs and are struggling to put drives together.  But I feel like this is a favorable match-up for SC going against a BC defense that is a banged up from a physical game last week vs Wake Forest.  Kiffin has decided to go with rFr QB Cody Kessler this week in hopes that they can find some consistency, and he should benefit playing behind an offensive line that matches up really well and figures to be able to get consistent push all day long.  I’m looking for USC to lean on the ground game here, it would be nice to have Silas Redd (listed as doubtful) but I’m expecting that Tre Madden will be able to continue a solid start to the season (5.2 ypc so far).  Boston looked decent defensively last week but it was against a  really poor Wake offense making a transition to a zone read scheme with a QB who is a pocket passer.   Boston will look to double Marquise Lee frequently as he’s been all SC has in the passing game, but if SC has the kind of success I’m expecting on the ground BC will have to put 7 and 8 guys in the box which will open some nice 1v1 opportunities on the edges.

This is a massive step up in opponent class for BC, and their doing it in a game where they have to fly across the country playing a USC team with a chip on their shoulder.  I feel like USC is in a great bounce back spot here against a BC team that is over matched and possibly a little fat and happy to have already matched last season’s win total.   USC still has elite talent and I think they are able to find enough offense this week to cover a deflated number.  Southern Cal 31, Boston College 10.

4 units — Texas A&M – Alabama Over 60.5 (-110)

No matter which way I look at this one I see a relative shootout in the most hyped game of the year.  Lost in the Johnny Football hype is the fact that Texas A&M runs one of the best offensive systems in the country (before JFF came along Sumlin was remarkably successful with his system with a completely different type of QB in Case Keenum at Houston) and it is incredibly difficult to get them off the field.  Alabama has more talent than anyone in the country (especially defensively) but is replacing a ton of defensive experience and is a little down at this point in the season in my opinion.  Texas A&M has a 3 dimensional offense (run, pass, Manziel) that is going to be able to create space all over the field and the talent to be able to make plays in space.  Alabama did shut down VT in the opener, but now they are going from facing one of the worst FBS QBs to one of the best.

And Alabama will certainly get theirs.  The reason I’m playing the over here instead of Texas A&M is that I do not trust this Aggie defense to stop what is an incredibly talented Bama offense that probably sandbagged more than a little bit in the opener.  When I watch Alabama I see that Saban completely trusts McCarron, he didn’t ask him to do a lot at times last year because they didn’t need it, but in key moments McCarron has shown himself to be a very smart decision maker with an arm to make all the throws.  We all know that Alabama has spent a disproportionate amount of time preparing for this game, and I feel like were going to see some new looks from Alabama meant to take advantage of holes in the A&M defense.  The Aggies were missing several key players, but this is the same defense that gave up 31 to Rice and 28 to Sam Houston State.

Looking at the projected score based off of the current odds we see something like 34-26.5 Alabama.  I think that’s an underestimation of the output of both teams, and expect this game to be played in the 30’s.  Last year these were my top 2 teams in the country, and I expect two of my top coaches to have their teams ready to go.  Saban has been very vocal in his hate for these hyper fast offenses, and I think its due in part to his difficulty in stopping them.  Both teams have a big edge on the offenses and I feel that the Aggies can force Alabama to play aggressively and trade scores.  Alabama 41 – Texas A&M 30.

 2 Units — Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks ML (+132)

I just have absolutely no faith in Wake Forest right now and will look to keep fading them (I had Boston last week but was only able to post it on twitter).  I believe that while Wake has a relatively solid defense they are absolutely atrocious offensively and are going to really struggle to score points this season.  Last year Wake had my 120th ranked offense nationally and the switch to more of an option attack is really struggling to click early as the Deacs don’t really have a QB suitable to running it (Tanner Price is much more comfortable in the pocket) and aren’t getting very good blocking.  Wake Forest has always been a team who tries to red shirt as many freshmen as possible but this year they’ve already played double digit true freshmen; I think it’s a program that is a little desperate to get things back on track.  Grobe is as good of a coach as Wake has seen in a long time but it is very difficult to sustain recruiting success at Wake Forest and a program that has had 3 losing seasons in the last 4 years appears to have returned to their previous level of mediocrity.  With Kolton Browning ready to go and 17 starters returning I have little doubt that Louisiana-Monroe is the better and more talented team.  I say the wrong team is favored here, but will play it small out of respect for the coaching ability of Jim Grobe.  The under is also a play that is worth considering.  It’s going to be a long season in Winston-Salem.  Warhawks 24, Demon Deacons 20.