A disappointing week 1 for sure, with a couple of poor choices (Louisiana Tech & Pittsburgh) joining a tough loss (BYU) to bring in a losing week to start the year.  This is why I kept all plays at 2 units and kept such a small card to open the season.  Week 2 doesn’t provide a very attractive group of games, so I’m really trying to narrow my focus onto a couple of games that interest me.  As always, this thread will be updated as plays are added.  Good luck!

1-3 -4.56 Units

Play #1

2 units – Duke – Memphis Over 50 (-110)

This is just a very low total for a Duke game as they tend to find themselves in high scoring affairs.  Before the 45-0 shutout over NC Central last week the Devils had 17 consecutive games go over this total.

The Devils are coming off of a shutout of an over matched NC Central team that was in disarray following the firing of their coach three weeks ago.  This is still the same defense that has a ton of question marks for me, and they have a young secondary who is going to struggle in games where they aren’t able to get such a good push up front (held Central to 2.8 ypc).  Though Duke has 7 returning starters on D, this is still mostly the same group of guys who allowed 41,30,48,56,42,52 & 48 points in their last 7 FBS games and ranked dead last nationally in plays allowed over 20+ and 30+ yards.  Memphis isn’t returning a world beating offensive unit, but it is a group that returns 8 starters from an offense that was starting to hit its stride late in 2012 (28, 37, 46 & 42 points in their last 4 games) and features a QB who set a school record for fewest INT’s last season (Jacob Karam, 65% completions & 14-3 TD-INT ratio).

Duke is doing something a little different offensively this season, they don’t really have a pocket passer like theyve had for the past 5 years (Thad Lewis & Sean Renfree) and are working in more of a zone read scheme to take advantage of QB Anthony Boone’s mobility.  Duke kept the offensive game plan a little vanilla last week versus an over matched opponent but I feel like we are going to get the playbook opened up a bit here against a better opponent.  Memphis does return 8 defensive starters but like Duke much of that experience is in the front 7 and their working with a green secondary that may struggle to make plays in space.  Duke matches up decently upfront here and I expect Boone to have the time he needs to find his guys down field.  This is also the opener for Memphis and I’ve always believed that teams playing their first game against a team playing its second are disadvantaged as they haven’t had an opportunity to work out the kinks yet.  For me we get a game where the defenses struggle and both offensive units are able to consistently move the chains.  I made this total 55 and leaned over, so to get it at less than that is even better.  I think Duke wins a back and forth one here.  Duke 31 Memphis 27.

Play #2

2 units — Florida Gators -3 +100

I feel like Miami is an overvalued side early on, their issues with defense last season just don’t go away because they have a lot of guys back.  Of course Florida has less guys returning from a painfully mediocre 2012 offense, but I’m a believer that poor defenses will make most offenses look good.  Offensively for Miami one of their biggest advantages they have most weeks is their speed; they’ve got several guys who can go for big plays at any time.  Against a team like Florida much of that advantage is going to be negated, UF has better athletes that Miami and will be able to bring more physicality to Miami in the trenches that the Hurricanes just do not see on a week to week basis.  Miami will still hit for some big plays in space but I don’t see them picking up large chunks of yardage at a time against what may be the best defense they see all season.

Florida hasn’t asked a lot of Jeff Driskell in the past (Florida ranked 85th nationally in yards per passing attempt in 2012) but I think they look to be a little more aggressive this year with the loss Gillislee and a likely (small) decrease in defensive domination.  As we saw last night, you can’t take much from Miami’s defensive outing in week 1 (holding FAU to 6 points) as their offense is very one dimensional and has zero ability to go down field.  For me this game just comes down to getting the much much better defense at a short number in what will almost be a neutral environment (that a 12:00 PM game in Miami is sold out says a lot about who is buying the tickets).  I feel like Florida has a great chance to dominate in the trenches here, and teams that do that usually walk away with the W.  Miami has some good pieces but I’m not ready to say that they are back, and I think this game shows a bit as to how far they have to go. I personally bet this game at UF -2.5 (-113) but would still play it at the same strength at the current -3.  Florida 31, Miami 20

Play #3

2 units — Syracuse Orange +17 -110

It’s been very hazardous to the health of any bankroll to bet against Northwestern as of late, the Wildcats are an outstanding 12-1-1 ATS since the start of the 2012 season.  But this is a line that has gone a bit out of control (opened at -10 on Sunday) and I think were getting good value going the other way with the Orange and what looks like it is going to be a pretty solid defensive unit.  Northwestern came out of the Cal game last week with a deceiving 44-30 victory as the Wildcats were outgained and out first downed but returned  a couple of interceptions for scores to pull away a bit in the second half.  Northwestern really struggled defensively though, allowing over 500 yards to a Cal team breaking in a completely new system with a rookie QB.  Now Northwestern comes home with a banged up Kain Colter laying a much bigger number to a Syracuse team that acquitted themselves decently last week in a neutral site game versus a similarly talented Penn State team.  New Cuse QB Drew Allen really struggled throwing the football but should be able to find more consistent success here against a softer NW defense.  I just don’t feel like Northwestern is ready to blow out solid FBS programs, even one like Syracuse with a new Head Coach and a new QB.  Last year this was was an absolute coin-flip that the Wildcats pulled out at the very end and I don’t see enough regression in Syracuse to think that they lay down here.  Northwestern 30, Syracuse 20