I have designed this user guide to help TSE subscribers get the most value from the Premium service. As we discovered last year, there was some confusion about various issues, including pick release times, which games to wager on, how many games to wager on each week, line movement and more. I will address these and other issues below.
WHICH GAMES TO WAGER ON
Which games to wager on each week is really up to each individual subscriber’s preferences. However, this year we are making that decision process easier by introducing our new Best Bet/Consensus Picks option to go along with all the individual handicapper selections.
NUMBER OF PLAYS
Again, this is up to the individual subscriber’s preferences. TSE is a unique college football handicapping service in that we try and provide as much information as possible in order to help advise our subscribers to make informed betting decisions. Between our five premium handicappers we can have as many as 25 to 30 plays each week.
Please carefully read TSE Premium College Football Picks for helpful tips on which games to wager, and how many games to wager on each week.
UNITS WAGERED PER GAME
I hate to sound like a broken record, but the amount and/or percentage of your bankroll that you wager on each game is up to the individual subscriber. Obviously some people are more conservative or aggressive than others, and that goes for each of our five individual handicappers.
We each have individual handicapping philosophies and we each wager different units or stars on each game. I personally just take each cappers unit/star size wagered as a “confidence” indicator and than I make my own decision as to how much to wager on a particular game.
Best Bet/Consensus Picks – All plays will be rated at 1.0, 1.5 or 2.0 units.
Please carefully read TSE Premium Units Wagered Per Game for helpful tips on how much to wager per game.
Also, one of the benefits of being the BEST source for College Football Handicapping information on the Internet is that our College Football Handicapping Articles archive is loaded with numerous posts about Money Management.
PICK RELEASE TIMES
2014 Schedule – Picks will be released on the site at approximately 10:00am PST Monday thru Friday.
We will also have a late Friday release time of 7:oopm PST.
Maggiore’s Big Ten picks, and any “late” picks for Saturday will be posted on or before 8:00am PST (one hour before kickoff) on Saturdays.
TWITTER – All plays will be released on the @TSE-Picks private Twitter account the moment they are made. Click here to receive Premium picks via text (must be a Premium subscriber to view).
Please carefully read TSE Premium – Pick Release Times for more helpful tips.
WIDELY AVAILABLE LINES
For record keeping purposes the line used to determine the bet will be the widely available line (we use: https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/offshore/) & take the number that is most widely available at posting time. However, for those subscribers who take the time to set up a Twitter account, the number will often be quite better.
LINE MOVEMENT
Y(our) goal should be to try and get the best line possible. Here are some helpful tips for achieving this goal:
Line Shopping – Line shopping is critical to optimizing results. Giving yourself access to multiple sets of lines can often help you find the number the play was posted at, or in some cases enable you to get a half point to a full point better on many TSE selections.
Beating the closing line – You have often seen us discuss the importance of beating the closing line. Sabert and I have even kept track of it the past two years, and I will make sure that I keep track of it as it pertains to the Best Bet/Consensus Picks this season.
In order to get full value of our service, it is important that you DO NOT place a wager at “peak” numbers and/or at lines that end up being worse than the closing line. If you find yourself often playing lines that end up being worse than or equal to the closing line, chances are you will not be successful.
If you miss the number the game is originally posted at, it is usually best to wait, and continue monitoring (and shopping) the line up until game time. A lot of times, the line will settle back down closer to the release number. If the line continues to move further away from the release number, it is probably best to simply pass on the game.
Key Numbers – It is important to recognize key numbers. For example, you will lose considerably more value on a side that moved from -6 to -7.5 than you would if the same game moved from PK to -1.5. You can still play at worse than a point off the posted number as long as the line has not moved on or off any key numbers (3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, etc.).
Buying Points – I do not recommend buying points in college football. However, if you wish (or can at a reasonable price) to buy points that place you on or off key numbers (3 & 7), I suggest using the SBR Half-Point Calculator to get an idea of what is the most you should be paying.
Twitter – Receiving a text message via our private Twitter account is the easiest and most efficient method in which to get the best line on the majority of our plays.
I will add to this guide over the next few weeks before kickoff. Please let me know if there is any other subject or issue you would like me to cover.
And please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions, comments or concerns at: pezgordo@saturdayedge.com.
Thank you,
Pez
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
