As stated previously in Part 1, I try to center the filter for my game selection on Matchups, Line Value, and Situation, the core principles of handicapping. As handicapping in general can be more “art” than “science”, there is a lot of subjectivity in determining when these opportunities are available. What I will do is show examples of how I determine when these opportunities are present.
Matchups
The most important tenet in handicapping in my opinion is the Matchup. This occurs when there is an overwhelming advantage(s) in favor of one team, but the point spread does not recognize that. This differs from pure Line Value in that, holistically, the spread does reflect the correct power ranking of the two teams.
But the matchup advantage in a particular facet of the game is so overwhelming that it will determine the outcome of the game, and more importantly the cover. To illustrate with an example, let’s look at last year’s Liberty Bowl between Tulsa vs. Iowa St.
While both teams had similar power rankings (the line was Tulsa +1.5), and might be priced with the same point spread against a similar opponent, the matchups within this game favored Tulsa tremendously. While The Golden Hurricane were a balanced offense, they excelled on the ground, ranking 11th in rush yards per game.
Meanwhile, since losing their All-B12 linebacker, Jake Knott, to injury, the Cyclones had given up 225 ypg at 5.2 yards per attempt! There were even more matchups favoring Tulsa, but this one major advantage played into their strength and Iowa State’s weakness. This was a matchup that I felt would tilt the probability of covering heavily in Tulsa’s favor, thus making this a prototypical “Matchup” play for me. A 31-17 final led to me cashing my ticket, as Tulsa went for over 300 yards on the ground.
There are ways for you to develop your own “Matchup” filter as long as you adhere to consistent parameters and research the results. Certain statistical advantages (ex. +1.5 combined rush ypc,) can be grouped and itemized, and then used to determine if there is an edge in your game. Your own particular knowledge of a team’s personnel can be used as well, (as long as you’re not biased), but this is harder to track and should only be used in unique situations.
Line Value
Next in importance is Line Value. I’m usually looking for a difference of two strong numbers to consider it to be value. So I’m looking for a game that’s +7 when it should be +5.5, as it’s moved two strong numbers (6 & 7). But a game that should be +6.5 that is lined at +9 is not worth it for me because it’s only off by one strong number (7).
Figuring what the line should be in order to determine if there is value is the whole key to this process, and there are many different ways that handicappers do this, and all have their own personal way of determining the line. Again, subjectivity is abundant, just don’t be biased! What I like to do is either find common opponents and compare the spreads between them, or find another team that you have rated similarly and compare the line when the opponent played them.
In the first instance, if Michigan is +4 at Ohio St and Penn St is +7 at Ohio St, then Michigan should be considered 3 points better than the Nittany Lions. If they were to face each other in Ann Arbor the following week, then the spread should be Michigan -6/-7. If it’s -10, then there’s Line Value for Penn St, while if it’s -3, then you have “LV” for the Wolverines.
For the second situation, if you have Michigan St. and Wisconsin rated evenly, and Wisconsin was +3 at Nebraska two weeks ago, then MSU should be about the same after a few minor adjustments. If they are +7 then there is definite “LV” for the Spartans.
Situation
The final, and in my opinion least valuable of the core principles of handicapping, is Situation. My feeling is that this is the least reliable of the three, and while there are bottom line numbers to determine the other two tenets, this is more abstract with a lot more of an “intangible” feel to it. For this reason, I never make a play based on this criteria alone; rather I use it to augment a play that falls into one of the previous two categories. Never the less, it should be paid attention to and taken into account when deciding on a play.
When looking for a “Situation” handicapping spot, you’re trying to locate a game where one team is facing an adverse situation that’s not directly related to something on the field or with their opponent.
Situations could be, but are not limited to, back-to-back road games, a non-conference opponent scheduled in between a team’s two biggest rivals, adverse travel or climate conditions, or the game after an OT game or string of “abnormally” tough matchups (again, a touch of subjectivity and a large dose of “intangibles”).
A real life example would be FSU -17 at USF last year in their first road game of the season the week after playing conference rival Clemson and the week before playing another divisional opponent in NC St. While I did not play USF in this spot as I was down on their team and could not find another reason to wager on them besides the situation, I was suspicious of the Seminoles laying three scores in this spot. A 30-17 final resulted in the cover for the Bulls as this “Situation” proved profitable for USF backers.
While I did pass on that opportunity, the next week afforded me another, as a combination of Line Value and Situation resulted in a profitable play for me. As mentioned, FSU traveled to NC St. the following week, and based on my higher rating for the Wolfpack than the Bulls, I expected a line around -14 for this contest. Add in the usual adjustment that linesmakers apply for a team on the second of two straight road games and I felt it might even be lined around -13.
When the opening print came out at -16, I determined that if it crept up to -17 it would be a “Line Value” play for NC St. Additionally, I felt this was a good “Situation” play as well. We had a case of a team playing back-to-back road games and their first trip out of state against a division rival who always gets up to play them, as this followed two tough games after opening the season with three straight blowout home wins.
Throw in a Saturday night home crowd for the Wolfpack and the combination of Line Value and Situation gave me a play that I felt had an edge. The result: after falling behind 16-0 at half, NC St came back to win outright 17-16 and my ticket cashed easily as I had the spread covered from opening kickoff to the final gun!
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
